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“External communication”, as a guideline for the advertising industry says, “should create a positive perception of one's own organization in the public.” The largest public can be reached through the mass media.
Journalists work there and they are often an obstacle.
But less when it comes to climate change.
On Monday, the development aid organization Germanwatch published a world ranking, the “Climate Risk Index”.
According to Germanwatch, it documents which countries are “most affected by extreme weather events”.
Dozens of media reported.
The list does not show who is most affected by extreme weather events, and it has nothing to do with climate change.
“Drought, storms, floods - the consequences of climate change are becoming more and more visible, and they hit poor countries in particular.
That was the result of the 'World Climate Index' from Germanwatch ”, but it was said in the“ Tagesschau ”.
"Some of the countries affected can no longer breathe in between natural disasters," said the spokesman.
The “Spiegel” headline: “Storms, heat, droughts: In the past 20 years, extreme weather plagued Germany like few other countries in the world.
This is shown by a current analysis. "" T-Online "wrote:" Germany in the top group: Only a few countries are more affected by extreme weather conditions. "
Misleading reports
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None of the reports were true: The Germanwatch index shows neither the consequences of climate change nor is Germany particularly plagued by extreme weather.
Germany is located in the so-called temperate latitudes with relatively little extreme weather, and as a wealthy country it is comparatively well protected.
So how was it possible that numerous media used the “Climate Risk Index” as an opportunity to report on increased climate change-related weather disasters and Germany's supposedly exposed position?
As a non-governmental organization, Germanwatch is committed to “global justice and the preservation of livelihoods”.
"The situation of the particularly disadvantaged people in the south forms the starting point of our work", it says in a self-assessment.
"We want to be a strong lobby for sustainable development."
Germanwatch is a successful lobby, as demonstrated by the organization on Monday with routine public relations work, when, like every year, in time for the World Climate Conference, it distributed its “Climate Risk Index” with a press campaign.
Why Germany is doing badly
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Despite the ambiguous title, Germanwatch also provided consistent information.
With little data for every country in the world, Germanwatch determined its world ranking: from the number of deaths in weather disasters and the determined amounts of damage, which are still related to the number of inhabitants and economic strength.
The figures come from Munich Re, a reinsurance company that catalogs damage caused by natural disasters.
Germanwatch's ranking is based on reliable data.
However, it does not show "who is most affected by extreme weather events", but rather where insurance companies have registered damage.
A decisive difference that also explains why Germany is at the top of the ranking list in some years: Damage from extreme weather in poor countries is documented less often, while in Germany excess mortality in summer is attributed to heat caused by climate change, which can have a major impact on the index.
Heat deaths in poor countries, for example in many African countries, are rarely recorded.
The climate fallacy
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The “Climate Risk Index” also offers solid information: Puerto Rico, Myanmar and Haiti were accordingly hit hardest by the weather disasters recorded by the insurance company between 2000 and 2019.
However, weather events that destroy uninsured hut villages are rarely documented by insurance companies.
For the period from 2000 to 2019, it is clearly documented that more than 475,000 people lost their lives in extreme weather, reports Germanwatch.
A good 11,000 disasters were recorded, causing property damage of $ 2.56 trillion.
Germanwatch does not stop at information, but also provides interpretations: Developing countries would have been hit particularly hard by climate change, writes the development aid organization in the "key results" section.
This is where the media reporting on the “Climate Risk Index” and Germanwatch meet: They falsely establish a connection between the documented damage caused by weather disasters and climate change.
ZDF- “Heute” reported, for example: “The number of climate-related natural disasters is increasing - but the most endangered countries get too little help.
That comes from the 'Climate Risk Index' of the Germanwatch organization. "
Risk of climate change
It is indisputable that mankind has triggered a risky climate change with industrialization.
Greenhouse gases cause global warming, with consequences for the weather: heat waves and heavy rain are increasing, glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising - this increases the risk of flooding on the coasts.
The danger of extreme cold, however, is less.
In the case of storms and droughts, the development is ambiguous.
What makes the question of the influence of climate change on natural disasters particularly difficult: Whether disasters are recorded depends not only on the weather and climate, but above all on protective measures.
Studies show that poor countries in particular have been able to protect themselves better and better against extreme weather.
Far fewer people die due to extreme weather than decades ago, even though the world population has multiplied in the same period.
A study by Giuseppe Formetta and Luc Feyen from 2019 reported details: With the exception of heat waves, all types of weather disasters had less effect than before.
Whether storms, floods of all kinds, cold or drought - the number of deaths in relation to the population that was affected by extreme weather has declined.
Despite global warming.
Pleasing development
The two researchers reported that the development was particularly positive in poor countries.
In Bangladesh, for example, which is often referred to as the country most affected by climate change, far fewer people die in weather disasters than in the past, despite poverty and a rapidly growing population - the same applies to storm surges worldwide.
The positive development is primarily due to better infrastructure: more stable buildings and modern advance warning technology.
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However, this message cannot be found in the Germanwatch report on the “Climate Risk Index”.
It says: "People all over the world are exposed to the reality of climate change, manifested in many regions of the world by an increased susceptibility to extreme weather events."
The opposite is true: the world population has grown by three billion people since the 1980s.
A weather event affects more people and settlements than before, so damage has become much more likely, even without the influence of climate change.
Damage costs have increased significantly since the 1980s.
But the sum alone doesn't say anything about the impact of climate change.
Puzzles about the climate effect
If you want to prove a possible effect of climate change on the damage caused by weather disasters, you have to take two factors out of the insurance data: higher damage prices due to inflation and the increase in property values due to larger settlements.
The increase in material assets could lead to the idea of more extreme weather, although the same storm now only hits larger settlements and can therefore cause more damage.
How uninsured losses developed is unclear, there is a lack of data.
The result of such calculations was always the same: An influence of climate change on the global damage caused by weather disasters has not yet been identified - this was also the case in the most recent UN climate report.
It is true that weather disasters are becoming more and more expensive.
But urban growth and inflation can explain the increase in damage amounts from weather disasters.
The “Tagesschau” leaves out such good news.
Instead, she quickly gets to the point in her report and quotes the development aid organization, which naturally wants help for poor countries: "More financial support is needed, demanded Germanwatch."