Local cluster outbreaks, but low general spread of infection.
This was the Public Health Agency's forecast when the national ban on visiting nursing homes was lifted and the public ceiling on events was raised in the autumn.
But the second corona wave hit hard - and became significantly worse than the authority's most serious scenario.
Both the Corona Commission and the Swedish Health and Care Inspectorate, IVO, sharply criticized how Sweden took care of its elderly.
- In the spring, it became clear that we failed to protect the elderly, said Minister of Social Affairs Lena Hallengren (S) after the Commission's criticism.
Over 11,000 deceased
Despite the lessons learned from last spring, the infection once again spread to the corridors of nursing homes.
Now more than 11,000 have died with covid-19 in Sweden, almost half of these lived in special housing.
One of them is Lars Larsson who was infected in November at the care and nursing home Victoria in Malmö.
Two weeks later he was dead.
- Now my dad is just a number in the statistics.
I want the public to open their eyes to how it really goes, that my father has not died unnecessarily, says the daughter Annica.
Excess mortality of 19 percent
This spring, SVT Nyheter, using data from the search service Ratsit, investigated the excess mortality of the country's nursing homes during some of the most intense corona weeks by comparing it with an average for the corresponding period in previous years.
We could then see an excess mortality of almost 30 percent for nursing homes throughout the country.
When we redo the review for the second wave, we can see a similar pattern.
During the last ten weeks of the year, we see an excess mortality of 19 percent.
The statistics say nothing about how many have died in covid-19, but give an indication of where the infection has struck.
In Region Skåne, which has been hit hard during the second corona wave, the excess mortality rate is close to 50 percent in nursing homes.
Six of the around 20 nursing homes that stand out when it comes to excess mortality are in the region, shows SVT Nyheter's review.
Criticism of the accommodation
The dementia home Victoria in Malmö, which is run by Förenade care, is one of the homes that stands out.
Annica is critical of how the accommodation has acted.
- I can understand that it happened last spring when it was new and you did not know much.
But when dad became infected, there was knowledge and you should have been able to stop the infection and protect him, she says.
Several relatives of the deceased criticize the management.
Madeleine Lundström, CEO of Förenade care, says that they are investigating the information that has been received.
- I have of course taken note of the comments and deviations received.
Of course, I take it very seriously.
It is a tragedy for the individual and relatives, she says.