Jordanian foreign opposition and the prospect of reform and reconciliation

In the Jordanian domestic arena, it is not used to an external opposition or a spokesman for the external opposition, as it is known about the Jordanian regime that it does not break bones or cut flesh in its dealings with its opponents, so it remained on the policy of soft sizing in dealing with its internal problems and crises.

However, after the Arab Spring and the spread of social media, what has been termed the Jordanian opposition abroad or the diaspora began to pop up.

History of foreign opposition to the Jordanian regime

After the tripartite aggression against Egypt in 1956 by France, Britain and the Zionist entity, the French-British role in the region receded, which the United States pushed for;

To take its place in the region to confront the Soviet Union, then US President Dwight Eisenhower, the 34th President of the United States, issued the principle of what was termed the Eisenhower Project, which allows countries in the Middle East to request the assistance of the United States of America to confront the communist threat.

At that time, Jordan had held parliamentary elections in the East Bank (Jordan) and the West Bank (Palestine), which were in union with Jordan, and the National Constitutional Party, calculated on the Nasserist line, won 17 parliamentary seats, and was able to form the government in alliance with the Communists, Baathists and the Arab left, which is close to the Union Soviet.

The elected prime minister, Suleiman al-Nabulsi, opposed Jordanian cooperation with the Eisenhower Declaration, as President Nablus was taking steps towards the Communist camp and the Soviet Union, and in alliance with the Free Officers Organization in the Jordanian army, he was able to conduct a failed coup attempt through military maneuvers, conducted by the army. The Jordanian was at the gates of Amman and cordoned off it, and the army was headed by Ali Abu Nawar, and that battalion that conducted the maneuver was led by Officer Nazir Rashid.

Then King Hussein announced in 1957 the dissolution of the government, the dissolution of the parties, and the declaration of martial law, so more than 600 officers fled to neighboring countries, especially Egypt and Syria, including the army chief, Ali Abu Nawar and Nazir Rashid, and a group of free officers were arrested and sentenced to different years of imprisonment.

Wasfi al-Tal's government came in 1965, and worked to reconcile with the external opposition, and all external opposition was returned, so that some of them returned to a major part of the pillars of the regime, and the most prominent of them was Nazir Rashid, who returned as director of General Intelligence and Minister of Foreign Affairs, while the former army commander returned to the Senate And he became a representative of the king, and some of them returned, such as the director of civil defense, companions to the king, members of the advisory council, etc., and most of them returned to the ranks of the intelligence service between individuals and officers.

Thus, the file of external opposition to the Jordanian regime was folded, and the opposition remained at home even at the height of martial law before its abolition in 1989.

The birth of foreign opposition after the Arab Spring

During the Arab Spring in 2010 there was a Jordanian Spring that differed in its demands from the rest of the Arab countries.

However, it was a spring that was forming in the regions where the Jordanian tribes most loyal to the monarchy were concentrated over the course of a century.

Changes in the economic system, Jordan's shift from the rentier pattern, its inability to meet the demands of this economic pattern, and the consequent reduction in the economic gains that were spent on the Jordanian tribal areas, created a major shift in the mood of these tribes towards the ruling regime.

The Jordanian tribes were described as the fence of the monarchy and the protector of the Hashemite throne, so that in the 1956 coup attempts, the army battalions formed from the Jordanian tribes were able to thwart the attempts of the military coup, and the ensuing clashes inside the army in what was known as the events of the Zarqa camps.

It seemed that the members of the Jordanian tribes, who live in the cities of the periphery, were more strict in the high ceiling of reform demands, and some of these demands and objections affected the personality of the palace residents, so many of them were referred to the State Security Court and tried on charges of undermining the regime, and many of them were sentenced to imprisonment between 1 year and 3 years.

Members of the Jordanian tribes believed that they were more immune to the regime.

This increased their ability to raise the ceiling of their demands, before they were besieged and thrown in prisons, while the citizens of Palestinian origin were reluctant to engage in those protests and demands, as they feared the security forces would be tough on their movements.

After some of them spent years in prison, and got out of prison, Jordan began to appear in Jordan a layer of external opposition consisting of many of them, who sought political asylum and obtained it from Turkey and a number of European countries, and some of this opposition declared itself, and some obtained political asylum, He refused to be part of the foreign opposition, and lived silently in the media abroad.

While the opposition was beginning to be formed abroad, it lived in a state of loss of compass, great conflict between them, and attacks on each other, but in the final stage it was more coherent, organized, reconciliation and harmony between them.

And the external opposition became the one who drew the scene, and formed the general mood of the Jordanian street, disaffected by the deteriorating economic conditions.

As the views of some foreign opposition celebrities reach more than those of the media outlets of the Jordanian state, and the views of broadcast episodes on social media reach more than a million views sometimes, and this is considered a very high viewership in Jordan, in a country with a population of no more than 8 million people. .

After that, the opposition began organizing itself, forming its own organization under the name of the Association of the Children of Jordan in the Diaspora, and it had a media spokesperson, Samer Al-Subaihat, and this forum includes the external opposition in Australia, Europe, America and Turkey, and it conducts periodic conferences through social media;

To coordinate positions among themselves.

While the foreign opposition provides, through its posts on social media, a lot of information and leaks, of interest to the Jordanian street, disaffected with corruption.

The external opposition believes that the leaks are due to some employees ’feeling of responsibility towards the homeland, through their leakage of news of widespread and rampant corruption in the state apparatus, while observers see that these leaks are the result of a struggle of wings within the Jordanian system, and that they are the result of this raging conflict between the old bureaucracy and the current The neoliberalist in Jordan, who is trying to crawl all the joints of the state and control the scene.

The demands of the foreign opposition are still, for the most part, demands for reforming the system and returning to activating the 1952 constitution, turning to parliamentary government and constitutional monarchy, according to the formula of the king who owns and does not rule, linking the principle of responsibility with accountability and accountability, restoring the people's power to the people to govern themselves, and electing whoever heads the government from The people, albeit others, raised the ceiling to demand the fall of the regime in the last stage;

But it is a slogan that is still rejected among the foreign opposition.

Most of this opposition refuses to deal with and recognize the Zionist entity, even though there is an opposition gathering that deals with the Zionist entity and its government to pressure the Jordanian regime regarding the Palestinian issue.

But this small gathering of opposition is rejected by the rest of the external opposition and the Jordanian people at home.

Most of those in the foreign opposition declare their refusal to receive any foreign aid from any party.

However, they are dealing with human rights organizations and donors to Jordan to put pressure on the regime for the sake of political transformation from a totalitarian kingdom to a democratic kingdom, from their viewpoint.

The influence of external opposition and the possibility of reconciliation and solution

There is no doubt that social media has overturned all the rules of the political game inside Jordan, in terms of access and influence in the Jordanian street, and the high reformist ceiling offered by the opposition on the constitutional monarchy and parliamentary government, which flirts with the dreams and aspirations of many of the Jordanian people, especially that the opposition The regime’s interior is marginalized from the internal scene by legal means and through civil punishment and the denial of some citizenship rights.

Observers of the Jordanian issue notices that the discourse of the external opposition is the most widespread discourse and narrative among the disaffected groups over the way the state is administered, especially in the tribal areas, which have lost many of their privileges in the last decade, that the external opposition has begun to seize the most important fortifications of the regime and the places most loyal to it through The past decades, and that social networking sites began to affect the scene and the general mood of the Jordanian street, in the way that the invention of the printer affected ancient Europe.

The size of the external opposition, which reached the hundreds, seemed to be more organized among its ranks, and more able to influence the internal scene, and the high ceiling of its demands indicates that it is difficult for the regime to deal with it, according to the formula that the late King Hussein dealt with in the 1960s with the opposition. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which restored some of its symbols to the highest and most sensitive positions in the history of the Jordanian state.

The nature of the Jordanian regime's foreign relations with European countries, especially after the rise of the Democratic Party in America that is most friendly to the Jordanian regime, indicates that the Jordanian regime is not afraid that the file of the foreign opposition will affect its international relations, and will not constitute a pressure factor on it abroad, as the Jordanian regime presents itself Internationally, it is considered the most democratic system among the Arab regimes, and the most moderate in the region, and that it contributes to the consolidation of stability in the Middle East.

However, it seems that the problem of the Jordanian regime with the external opposition is its ability to influence the formation of the people's mood in the internal arena, and to direct the opposition to the ceilings that the regime does not accept, and does not consider it necessary to shift towards it, especially the constitutional monarchy in the form the opposition demands.

That the king owns and does not rule, puts all powers in the hands of a prime minister from the parliamentary majority, and holds him accountable;

Let the loot of power be equal to the penalty of accountability.

It is clear that a repeat of the scene that took place in the sixties with the external opposition is not possible at the current stage, and that the method of appeasement in some leadership positions is difficult to be available now, and at the same time it is not possible to go to reform all at once, as the external opposition demands and the ceiling called for.

The solution that can be realistic and possible is for the regime to draw a map of gradual political reform, within a specific timetable, and implement this program in a serious and clear manner, and then pardon all external opposition, return them to the homeland and deal with them as full citizens, far from the approaches. The wish that usually drives people to choices that they sometimes do not want, thus the regime in Jordan becomes more immune at home and abroad, and the reform process pushes the country towards progress and salvation;

Jordan would have an opposition that would help fortify its internal immunity, not weaken it or blackmail it externally through it.