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Nuremberg (dpa) - The economy continued its rollercoaster ride from 2020 at the start of 2021.
Economists at leading financial and economic institutes fear another dry spell in the first quarter before a recovery could set in, as a survey by the dpa showed.
"2021 is likely to be a year of economic recovery, but the situation will deteriorate significantly in the short term before the economy returns to a sustainable recovery path," said Katharina Utermöhl from the Allianz Group.
"The extension and tightening of the lockdown requires citizens, employees and companies to once again show a high level of acceptance and perseverance," said Fritzi Koehler-Geib, chief economist at the state-owned banking group KfW.
"That is a tough test for many."
The current lockdown will, however, likely have a far less serious impact on the economy as a whole than the lockdown last spring.
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Economists are fully committed to vaccination as the most effective means of containing the corona pandemic - despite the current supply bottlenecks for vaccines.
"The possibility of vaccinating large parts of the population during the course of the year opens up the prospect of containing the pandemic by the summer to such an extent that it will only have little impact on the economy," said Köhler-Geib.
"If the vaccination gets going and gradually warmer weather sets in, a strong, noticeable economic recovery should set in," said Marc Schattenberg, economist at the Deutsche Bank Group.
The Nuremberg economics professor and member of the Federal Government's Advisory Council, Veronika Grimm, expects growth to be just over three percent for 2021.
Schattenberg hopes for "a four before the decimal point".
But everything depends on the course of the pandemic and the vaccination program.
"The recovery will pause in winter and only continue when easing is in sight," said Grimm.
At present, the industry with its positive export business is little affected.
But this could change if borders were closed.
“Anything related to border closings can lead to a significant break-in.
The effects are difficult to assess, and small disruptions in international supply chains are often enough to shut down large parts of the industry, ”said Grimm.
KfW chief economist Köhler-Geib also believes in positive signals for the labor market.
At 44.9 million, the number of people in employment could be slightly higher than in the crisis year 2020, and the unemployment rate is likely to decline slightly.
"The extensive stimulus program in the USA will also be felt in Europe and Germany," said Grimm.
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Economists are unanimous in their fear that there could be a larger number of bankruptcies.
Allianz economist Utermöhl spoke of a "wave of insolvencies" that would be possible in the second half of the year after state support measures had expired.
The economy Veronika Grimm believes in an increase in the numbers, but hopes that the wave will not get too big.
"I would suspect that we will see bankruptcies and that there will also be movements in the labor market," she said with a view to retail in the city centers.
"There will definitely be behavioral adjustments, in the inner cities not everything will be the way it was again," she said with reference to people's purchasing behavior.
"The question will be: How are the municipalities adapting to the structural change in the inner cities?"
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210123-99-138702 / 2