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Months before the next federal election one should take note of surveys with caution.
They are nothing more than snapshots in the sometimes big and sometimes small game of politics.
Nevertheless, they say something, especially if the result stays the same for a long time.
Not just since today do many Germans consider Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder worthy of Chancellor.
Few of his compatriots, however, trust his colleague from North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, to become Federal Chancellor.
It is also noteworthy that even the supporters of the other parties can better imagine the CSU boss as the head of the house in the Chancellery.
This fact is unique.
Although Bavaria's fathers between Nuremberg and Passau, Augsburg and Garmisch had always been admired and highly praised - the Hamburg, Bonn and Berliners, on the other hand, considered them either dangerous or funny and out of date.
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The CDU and CSU may decide among themselves what conclusions can be drawn from this.
In any case, it is striking: Even Laschet's victory at the CDU party congress last week does not increase his reputation among the population.
Laschet has something urban, well-bred, likeable about it;
he may still remain in the foothills of his possibilities, but the impression of colorless righteousness remains - whether it is true or not is an open question.
And Söder?
He may be a brilliant propagandist of himself and trust his own mind much more than that of those around him, including all ministers.
But one thing cannot be denied to him: Söder is crisis-prone, has a feel for the wind of a crisis - and often even before it occurs.
He is also gifted with ideas.
They stream toward him in swirling abundance.
He welcomes you with a hospitality that knows no bounds.
In addition, the pandemic has revealed his ability to make decisions with a cool head, even in difficult times, in such a way that they inspire confidence in the population and arouse the broad feeling: The man at the top is capable of crossing the country even through a valley To lead misery.
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Perhaps after the pandemic it will turn out that it benefited him in the same way as the 1962 Interior Senator Helmut Schmidt benefited from the storm surge in Hamburg.
If Bavaria were to be elected today, Söder and his CSU could in any case count on an absolute majority.
Such a result cannot be transferred nationwide.
Yet.
The question remains: with whom will the Union become the strongest force in the country - with Söder or Laschet?