A Sudanese negotiator to Al-Jazeera Net: Ethiopia will not sign the Renaissance Dam agreement without international pressure, and these are our options if it carries out the second filling

Sudan is racing against the date of the second filling of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam next July in order to reach an agreement with Addis Ababa about filling and operating the dam it is building 100 km from one of its dams, which puts Khartoum's options, to get Addis Ababa and Cairo to sign a binding agreement, to the test. Especially since the continuation of the construction of this dam, the period of forced flooding will occur that Ethiopia cannot prevent.

Al-Jazeera Net conducted an interview with Hassan Amin Mohamed Ahmed, director of the Meroe reservoir and a member of the Sudanese delegation to the Renaissance Dam negotiations, during which he answered about the options that Khartoum will take before starting the second filling of the Renaissance Dam after 7 months:

Sudan is upset in the course of the Renaissance Dam negotiations?

The negotiations continued under the auspices of the African Union for more than 6 months, during which there was no rapprochement or breakthrough. On the contrary, there was more divergence in the positions, and the Ethiopian and Egyptian sides retreated from things that had been previously agreed upon.

What appears to be the case is that the negotiations were proceeding towards prolonging their period without reaching results or consensus and agreement between the parties, which is what Sudan considers a departure from its concerns and reservations related to ensuring the safety of its vital installations and its citizens, which is linked to the existence of a binding legal agreement and the validity of its implementation.

The Sudanese delegation headed by Minister of Irrigation Yasser Abbas during its participation in one of the rounds of the Renaissance Dam negotiations (agencies)

What are Sudan's reservations on the progress of the negotiations?

Sudan has reservations about the current negotiation methodology, which has been completely proven to be fruitless, but rather leads to hardening of positions and a retreat from what was agreed upon and unanimously agreed upon, and this is a matter that results in a delay - if not an impossibility - in reaching an agreement and signing it before the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, so Sudan found Continuing with this method in the negotiations is a greater loss for him than stopping them, and that there is no way to continue them without the existence of a real and effective role for the African Union and its experts to save the negotiations, and to ensure reaching a fair and legal agreement that binds all parties and takes into account their legitimate reservations.

What does Sudan intend to do after Ethiopia announced its intention to implement the second filling of the Renaissance Dam next July, which Khartoum confirmed will affect the nearby Rosiers Dam?

Sudan prefers to reach an agreement between the three countries regarding the filling and operation of the Renaissance Dam, as all Sudan's requirements, including the integrity of its dams and the availability of information and data, are included in all the draft agreements and are fully agreed upon between the countries.

Sudan's objection is not about the filling, but the lack of information and data through a binding legal agreement that enables Sudan to plan for all the years of filling and continuous operation, and to make all the necessary precautions and arrangements in its dams, agricultural projects, drinking water intakes and pumps.

And if the African Union is not able to meet Sudan's concerns about not signing an agreement before the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, Sudan may resort to other parties and other political and diplomatic options, taking into account its important relations and mutual interests with both Ethiopia and Egypt.

Sudan’s position on the issue of the Renaissance Dam has become tighter .. Is it in line with the Egyptian position?

Sudan's position is constant from the beginning that the other parties have a right, and it also has a right to develop and benefit from the Nile water in a fair and reasonable manner, without causing harm to others in accordance with the international law of shared waterways between the riparian states.

I do not think that Sudan’s stances are identical to the position of this or that country, as it only clings to its legitimate interests and rights. If its position matches or converges sometimes with the position of one of the countries, that does not mean that it adopts its position. With the current situation and without changing the methodology and activating the role of the African Union.

Director of the Sudanese Meroe Reservoir Amin Ahmed: Egypt and Ethiopia are not in a hurry to sign an agreement (Al-Jazeera Net)

Did Sudan suddenly notice that there is a danger to the Roseires Dam due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?

Certainly no, Sudan has been concerned from the beginning about the safety of the Renaissance Dam due to its importance and impact on the Rosaires Dam and the citizens on the Blue Nile and the Main Nile, and major modifications and improvements have been made in the designs at the request of Sudan and international experts to increase the safety of the Renaissance Dam and this cost Ethiopia a billion dollars, in our estimation what was done for the safety The Renaissance Dam, and thus the safety of the Roseires Dam, is large and sufficient in both the design and construction sides. The current phase of filling and operating the Renaissance Dam also needs attention to ensure the safety of the Roseires Dam operation. Therefore, Sudan has taken care to include all the technical and procedural aspects required for that in the agreement in a clear and detailed manner, and it remains only to sign it.

When Sudan talks about a danger to the Roseires Dam, it does not mean that there is an inherent danger of the existence of the Renaissance Dam or its filling and operation. Rather, what is meant is the inability to implement Sudan's important obligations included in the agreement that is not binding without signing it.

Did Sudan notice signs of danger to the Rosaries Dam during Ethiopia's first filling last July?

No.

Specifically, what is the nature of the risks of the Renaissance Dam that could threaten the safety of Sudanese installations on the course of the Blue Nile?

The risks lie in the operation of the Roseires Dam and the dams in Sudan without the continuous availability of data and information from the Renaissance Dam, the operation of the dams is important and vital for development, as well as to ensure their safety and the safety of the population and facilities after it, and this cannot happen without a mechanism to obtain the necessary data at all times. During filling and operation as well as in emergency situations, it is not possible to operate and manage large dams blindly at all because this poses a risk and threatens to cause great economic and social losses.

The binding agreement that Sudan is demanding to fill and operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: What will Sudan benefit from?

Does it have benefits for the Egyptian side?

The binding agreement that Sudan is demanding. All its drafts actually contain Sudan’s most important requirements for data exchange, the safety of the dam, emergency arrangements, environmental and social studies, and some other technical and legal requirements. The apparent benefit of the Egyptian side of the agreement in its drafts that were discussed in the negotiations is to reduce the severity of the drought when it occurs by disposal. Additional water for the Blue Nile from the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam

What is feared by Ethiopia in what follows its signing of an agreement regarding filling and operating the dam?

The expected agreement will be mostly obligations for Ethiopia, so it is afraid of signing an agreement that would restrict it.

On the other hand, it does not see for itself any tangible benefit from this agreement and signing it.

On the other hand, this agreement may be a political loss, as it is not easy for the Ethiopian government to market such an agreement to its people after the state of tension and the media escalation that took place throughout the previous period, against the Nile Water Agreement in general and against Egypt, and the Egyptian media escalation regarding the Renaissance Dam in particular.

Can Ethiopia implement the second filling procedures unilaterally, as happened in the first filling last July?

Actually, if construction continues in the middle corridor of the Renaissance Dam, filling will occur during the flood period, in a compulsory manner that Ethiopia cannot control or prevent due to the limited water outlets at the current levels in the lake.

If Ethiopia takes this measure, what are Sudan's options?

I think that Sudan will go to the options that push towards the signing of a binding legal agreement before the filling takes place, because this is the essence of the matter, and with it Sudan's requirements are fulfilled.

If internationalization is an option, how will it be, what are its mechanisms, and to what extent will Ethiopia submit to it?

There are countries and global and regional organizations that have weight and heights that can influence the parties to the issue to reach a reasonable agreement that satisfies the three parties, and meets their legitimate requests to be signed and implemented.

Ethiopia announced the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam next July (Reuters)

Why has African mediation not succeeded so far?

It seems that the African mediation was not aware of the complexities of the issue, its difficulty and its projections, and the methodology it adopted by leaving the whole matter to the states was not effective, rather it increased the gap between them, and gave an opportunity for the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides to retreat from the good results that were achieved in the previous rounds, and raise the ceiling of their requests for new.

Sudan finally reserved the method of negotiation and withdrew from one of the rounds ... What is the reason?

The Ethiopian negotiator and the Egyptian negotiator are not in a hurry to sign an agreement, and this agreement is not a popular demand for their two countries or greatly affects them.

The side concerned with the agreement and its obligation is Sudan, because it is the most affected, positive and negative, of filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Specifically, now what is Sudan demanding?

Sudan demands the signing of a binding legal agreement whose drafts actually contain Sudan's most important requirements, and agreed upon between states, so that this agreement enters into force before the second filling of the Renaissance Dam.

How true is the claim by Sudanese activists and writers that Ethiopia is stalling until the date of the second filling after about 7 months without reaching an agreement?

As mentioned previously, Ethiopia is in no hurry to sign an agreement of which it has no tangible benefit and does not satisfy its people who were shipped against the countries below the river, especially Egypt.

My personal opinion is that Ethiopia will not sign an agreement easily and without using the carrot and stick policy from (before) Sudan and influential regional and international parties.