6 conjectures in the "Biden era"
On January 20, the United States will usher in the "Biden Era".
As a veteran politician, how will the ambitious Biden plan his four years?
In the face of the raging new crown epidemic, will he pass administrative orders to make people wear masks?
The racial tearing is still going on, and his efforts to form a "diversified" cabinet can promote racial equality?
U.S.-China relations and U.S.-Europe relations are becoming increasingly tense. Will the abandonment of the "America first" strategy be a turning point?
Conjecture 1 Response to the epidemic
Can the accelerated vaccination plan be promoted?
As of January 17, local time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States exceeded 23.7 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was nearly 400,000.
On December 8th last year, Biden promised the public in Wilmington, Delaware, that opening schools, wearing masks and vaccinating new crowns were his three main goals within 100 days of taking office.
He promised that the new government will provide sufficient funds for school districts to help schools implement safety measures so that most schools can reopen.
Biden also emphasized the importance of wearing masks on multiple occasions, saying that he would sign an executive order to wear masks after he became president.
However, the president does not unilaterally enforce the power to require all people to wear masks.
Biden said that this order will be implemented within the scope of authority, such as requiring people to wear masks in federal buildings and when taking airplanes and trains.
In fact, wearing a mask may be one of the most controversial topics in the United States during the new crown epidemic.
The BBC pointed out that scientific evidence has been continuously given a "partisan color" and masks have become a catalyst for the political conflict between the two parties.
Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the controversy over masks during the new crown epidemic actually demonstrated the confrontation of values between the two parties.
"The Democratic Party emphasizes that everyone has the obligation to protect themselves and others, while the Republican Party advocates that individual rights are not subject to any interference. What's more, Trump deliberately hype issues, and the mask issue becomes highly politicized."
Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that whether the number of confirmed cases and deaths continues to rise, or the mutation of the new crown virus has made the American people gradually realize the severity of the epidemic.
The people’s willingness to wear masks has increased since the initial stage. The key lies in the specific operation of the mask order. Otherwise, when Bi is on stage, the implementation of the mask order may encounter a series of troubles. Republican states may propose boycotts, hold demonstrations or even Cause legal disputes.
The plan to distribute the vaccine is not going well.
Biden promised to inject 100 million doses of vaccine within 100 days of taking office, but the current distribution speed is far from reaching that goal.
According to CNN, in order to further expand the vaccine coverage group, Biden will work hard to launch almost all new crown vaccines for the first vaccination after taking office.
On January 14, Biden released a US$1.9 trillion "American Relief Plan", of which about US$400 billion will be directly used to fight the epidemic.
He called for the establishment of mass vaccination centers and the dispatch of mobile vaccination units to hard-to-reach areas.
On January 15th, the Biden team announced a vaccination acceleration plan, hoping to expand the scope of vaccination groups, including teachers, the elderly over 65, and people who are currently not eligible for vaccination.
The Biden team stated that it will use the National Defense Production Law to increase the amount of medical assets and support the storage and transportation of vaccines.
Biden pointed out that he hopes that the Federal Emergency Management Agency can establish 100 vaccination centers within one month of his inauguration, and the number of subsequent vaccination centers will increase.
"On the one hand, Biden hopes that by expanding the coverage of vaccines, more people will directly benefit and improve people’s evaluation of the new government. On the other hand, this will also push vaccine manufacturers to accelerate production and follow the second injection. Supply." Liu Weidong believes that whether 60% of Americans can be vaccinated within 4-6 months is the key to the success of the Biden administration's fight against the epidemic.
Conjecture 2 Economic measures
Can the $1.9 trillion rescue plan be fulfilled?
The new crown epidemic has severely affected the economic development of the United States.
National Public Radio (NPR) pointed out that Biden will take over a particularly "fragile" economy.
On January 14, local time, the US Department of Labor issued a report showing that 1.15 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of the new year, an increase of 25% over the previous week.
According to the "Wall Street Journal" report, due to the gradual cold weather and the government's restrictive measures, many restaurants and bars were forced to close or downsize. In December alone, they cut 372,000 jobs.
Other hotels, museums, tourist attractions, government agencies and schools that are highly vulnerable to the spread of the new crown virus have also laid off their staff.
In response to the impact of the epidemic, in March 2020, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed the largest economic relief plan in history, valued at US$2 trillion.
Subsequently, the two houses experienced 9 months of mutual "tearing". At the end of the year, Trump signed a nearly $900 billion new crown epidemic relief plan.
Wang Yong, director of the American Studies Center of the School of International Relations, Peking University, believes that the two economic rescue plans are only to help solve people’s livelihood problems and provide subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises, but they do not provide much help for the restoration of substantial growth in the US economy. .
In an interview with USA Today, Economist Troy Ludtka of Natixis said that the next two to three months are likely to be the period when the epidemic will have the greatest impact on the economy.
So, what other economic "cards" can Biden play after taking office?
On January 14, he released the "American Relief Plan" worth 1.9 trillion yuan. Except for the funds used to fight the epidemic, there will be about 1 trillion US dollars to provide economic assistance to American families affected by the epidemic, about 440 billion US dollars. It will be used to assist small businesses, state and local governments, etc. struggling with the epidemic.
Of course, this plan needs to be approved by Congress.
Recently, the Democratic Party has successively acquired two Senate seats in Georgia, and once again controlled both houses of the Senate and the White House after a lapse of 10 years.
However, Liu Weidong pointed out that the Democratic Party’s control of the Senate is very “fragile”. The Democratic Party also has differences on the economic stimulus package. If a Democratic Party member disagrees with Biden’s ideas, even if it is only to abstain from voting, the bill Biden advocates is very Difficult to implement.
Xie Tao also pointed out that even if the Republican Party ceases to be the majority party, according to the rules of the Senate, Republicans still have many ways to block the passage of legislation.
Economic assistance continues to increase, and the financial burden is getting heavier.
Wang Yong believes that the US fiscal deficit is becoming more and more serious, the room for monetary policy is becoming more and more limited, and the debt level continues to rise, consuming the potential of the United States to resume economic growth in the future, thus forming a vicious circle.
In the face of the current financial situation, Biden may seek to reduce other expenditures. Xie Tao cited as an example, cutting military expenditures, reducing medical assistance, and reducing social security welfare costs will be the direction of Biden's efforts.
In addition, in terms of government revenue, Biden advocates raising the tax rate.
According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), Biden clearly proposed tax reform and advocated taxation of the wealthy.
Liu Weidong pointed out that the current government budget deficit is too high, and the new government needs to increase taxes to fill the gaps to ensure basic national expenditure.
However, this tax reform plan may encounter a "rebound" in China.
"Biden's taxation plan is basically in the right direction. The gap between the rich and the poor in American society must be resolved through taxation. However, taxation will undoubtedly move the cheese of the rich, including the middle class, and will inevitably lead to opposition. Further use of lobbying power to try to influence Biden's policies. Therefore, for Biden, it would be safer to adopt a moderate and gradual policy." Wang Yong said.
Finally, the restoration of the economy also needs to attract investment, such as expanding infrastructure.
Liu Weidong believes that Biden will further liberalize and encourage foreign investment in the United States, while promoting the export of American superior products such as energy, agricultural products, and high-tech products.
Xie Tao pointed out that the U.S. Constitution stipulates that if Biden wants to make a difference economically after he takes office, he must be supported by both houses.
"In terms of stimulating the economy, multiple goals cannot be achieved at the same time. Democrats need to keep weighing the choices."
Conjecture 3 race problem
Build the most diverse cabinet in history to achieve racial equality?
"Capitol Hill" wrote an article that Biden will face tremendous pressure to resolve racial inequality on his first day as president.
In the past year, there have been many large-scale protests in the United States, and the people eagerly hope that Biden can take immediate action to achieve racial equality across the country.
On May 25, 2020, local time, a white policeman in Minnesota, the United States, violently enforced the law and knelt down on the neck of an African-American man Freud for 8 minutes, eventually leading to his death.
The "Floyd Incident" aroused the anger of the people, and the people began to conduct demonstrations against police violent law enforcement and racial discrimination across the United States.
In this series of protests, people chanted "Black Lives Matter".
Subsequently, another similar incident occurred in Wisconsin. Three Wisconsin police officers in Kenosha tried to arrest Jacob Black, an African-American man due to domestic violence. Black went straight to his car. Three police officers fired 7 shots behind him. Black was paralyzed.
This case once again triggered public demonstrations and became part of the "Black people's fate is also fate" campaign.
Many people believe that the "Freud incident" has reopened the deep-rooted scars of racism in American society.
Some majors in North Carolina stated in a joint statement that "as a society as a whole, we cannot tolerate this kind of police violence rooted in systemic racism."
Race issues have always been a core issue during Biden's campaign, and he also listed the restoration of racial equality as one of the four priorities during his tenure.
But Hogg, a lecturer at Columbia Law School, worried that the Biden administration would “isolate” the issue of racial equality when setting its agenda.
She believes that the issue of racial equality should permeate every policy area of the Biden administration, including climate change, response to the epidemic, and economic recovery, and should not be regarded as an independent issue.
At the same time, Biden is trying to build the most diverse cabinet in history to show that the interests of minorities will be reflected in policy formulation.
Liu Weidong pointed out that Biden's choice of cabinet nomination is closely related to the increasingly serious racial issues in the United States.
In addition, through diversified appointments, he can also continue to maintain the support of minorities and female voters.
Wang Yong also believes that from Biden's cabinet composition, he is trying to create a "progressive" government that promotes the development of diversified policies with a diverse composition of officials.
But this group of cabinets also has a lot of "experimental" and "uncertainty", and the ability to govern still needs further testing.
However, diversified cabinet appointments do not mean that ethnic issues will necessarily be effectively resolved.
"Just appointing a few minority officials does not mean attaching importance to minority interests, otherwise the racial issue will be effectively resolved during the Obama administration." Xie Tao said.
Politico, an American political news website, analyzed that racism within the United States has long-term and systemic characteristics, and systemic racism will not disappear due to a summer of protests and the inauguration of a new president.
In addition, Biden also stated that he would implement the Equality Act within 100 days of taking office, pay attention to the economic status of minorities, and promote racial equality.
But Xie Tao believes that the advancement of the Equality Act is not optimistic. If the Democrats push the bill too aggressively, it will inevitably arouse dissatisfaction among Republicans.
At present, when the Democrats control both the Senate and the House of Representatives and the White House, it seems that "one party rules the world." If the Democrats irritate the Republicans with issues that have obvious differences between the two parties, it will only make Republicans feel that they are legitimate and reasonable. The demands of the two parties will no longer be considered, and the conflicts between the two parties will be intensified.
Wang Yong pointed out that the contradictions of racial inequality in the United States have been accumulated over a long period of time and are unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
For the time being, the Biden administration will obviously show a positive political attitude and introduce policies to improve the situation of ethnic minorities, so as to ease the stubborn racial problem to a certain extent, but it will not be cured.
What's more, sometimes racial issues are just a "card" in the struggle between the two parties.
Liu Weidong pointed out that to truly solve the problem of racial inequality, we should start with two aspects: transforming minority values and effectively enhancing their economic status.
Conjecture 4 Relations with China
It is expected to ease in the short term, but conflict is inevitable?
Soon after Biden won the U.S. election, Newsweek published an article stating that U.S.-China relations could never return to the state of the past.
"On the issue of US-China relations, Biden's biggest challenge now is how to deal with the mess left by Trump." Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Fudan University, told the Beijing News reporter that Trump has launched a campaign against China over the years. Strategic competition, moving towards strategic confrontation, has caused the most serious damage to US-China relations in the past 40 years.
When Trump took office, US-China relations were still stable.
But beginning in mid-2018, Trump initiated review and sanctions against ZTE.
In December 2018, at the behest of the United States, Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, and the relationship between the United States and China fell into a deadlock.
Since then, the US and China have intensified their game on Hong Kong's national security legislation, South China Sea sovereignty, and the Taiwan issue. The Trump administration has introduced a series of policy measures against the Chinese government.
Even with the imminent departure, the Trump administration continues to suppress China, which many people call the "last madness."
So, how will Biden adjust its China strategy?
Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that after the new US government comes to power, US-China relations may ease in the short term, and the pressure on China may also ease, because Biden's style is relatively moderate and he is an established politician. , His policy is also more predictable.
For example, the Biden administration may gradually resume official exchanges between the United States and China and cooperate with China on issues such as climate change and the fight against the epidemic.
"But the US-China relationship cannot go back to the past, because time and space have changed. The US political circles have basically reached a consensus on the issue of China. The Biden administration also calls China the biggest strategic competitor of the US."
Moreover, many issues between the United States and China remain thorny.
"A lot of China-related administrative orders were issued during the Trump era. Biden certainly can't overturn all of them quickly. Maybe he doesn't have the will and energy to do this. He is mainly busy solving domestic problems. In addition, Biden still China regards China as its biggest competitor, which determines that he will not be too gentle with China; in addition, Biden may increase pressure on China on issues of democracy, freedom, and human rights, including Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan issues. "Yuan Zheng said.
In Wu Xinbo's view, the China policy of Biden's new administration will have three characteristics.
First of all, Biden may inherit the tone of the Trump era on the issue of China, because it has almost become a part of the "political correctness" of American society. However, unlike the Trump era, the Biden administration will compete with each other while competing. China has carried out necessary cooperation, such as climate change issues, global public health issues, and Iranian nuclear issues.
Second, compared with the Trump era, the Biden administration will be less confrontational and conflictive.
In the later period, the Trump administration was almost completely out of control. It was an irrational attitude to deal with the China issue, so it moved from competition to confrontation and conflict.
After the Biden administration comes to power, it will try its best to avoid such methods.
Finally, the diplomatic team of the Biden administration are all establishment officials, professional diplomats, and have relatively rich diplomatic work experience. Most of them have had more contacts with China during the Obama era, including Biden himself.
Therefore, they will pay more attention to communication with China, which means that the stability and predictability of bilateral relations will increase.
Yuan Zheng said that US-China relations may ease in the short term, but in the long run, it will be more complicated.
Because China's rise is inevitable, and competition with the United States is inevitable, both sides may be more vigilant.
Biden’s four-year term basically overlaps with China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. How the U.S.-China relationship develops during this period will play a crucial role in the future direction of U.S.-China relations. It depends on whether the U.S. can gradually accept the rise of China. A fact, and live in harmony with China, mutually beneficial and win-win.
If it is not handled properly, the uncertainty between the United States and China will increase, and the possibility of war will not even be ruled out.
Wu Xinbo also believes that the future trends of US-China relations need to be closely watched. If the two sides move toward vicious competition, confrontation and conflict will erupt due to loss of control, or a new cold war may break out.
"Now it is up to Biden to provide the window of opportunity for relaxation and adjustment. Whether the two sides can cooperate effectively and manage their differences at the same time. This is a test for both the United States and China."
Conjecture 5 Relations with Europe
Reduce trade friction and let allies follow the US?
After the riots on Capitol Hill in the United States, Trump became a "lonely man" overnight and became the first president in American history to be impeached twice.
In fact, after four years of "toss", the United States has almost become a "lonely family."
During his tenure, Trump promoted unilateralism and the United States first, ignoring and even suppressing allies.
In Europe, Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO, calling the European Union an "enemy", calling German Chancellor Merkel "stupid", and starting a trade war with France, offending traditional allies completely; in East Asia, Tron General pressure on Japan and South Korea to increase defense costs, withdrawal from the TPP required re-negotiation of the trade agreement, and the trans-Pacific partnership cast a shadow; at his doorstep, Trump withdrew from the North American Free Trade Agreement and pressured Canada and Mexico to re-sign the "U.S.-Mexico-Canada" The Agreement fully reflects the "America First" position.
Former European Parliament Speaker Pat Cox once wrote that during Trump’s tenure, Europe’s “betrayal” may be the most serious, and Euro-Atlantic relations have deteriorated to an unprecedented level.
After Biden takes office, how will he deal with the broken allies?
"He may start from these aspects, such as reducing trade frictions with allies, no longer doing sanctions and fighting trade wars at all times; on the issue of military spending, he may be dealt with in a more moderate way, not like Trump. Be tough." Wu Xinbo said.
In addition, Biden will try to make allies follow the United States.
Wu Xinbo believes that Biden will pull allies to deal with China in trade, technology, finance, digital economy, WTO reform, etc. It may also allow allies to share more responsibilities and make more efforts. For example, in terms of security, it will require NATO countries to increase Military expenditure etc.
Yuan Zheng pointed out that during Trump's tenure in office, the relationship among allies of the United States was very tense. The American first and unilateralism he advocated only emphasized his own interests and completely ignored allies.
On the one hand, this is a matter of his personal perception. On the other hand, it actually caters to the demands of domestic politics in the United States—because there is a clear trend of rising populism in the United States, many people support Trump because they want him to take these actions.
After Biden took office, he was faced with the relative weakness of the United States, so he would emphasize the cooperation between allies.
But it will not change the practice of making allies take on more obligations, but the method will be more ingenious and gentle, and the problem will be solved through consultation and dialogue.
When encountering major problems, Biden may pay more attention to communicating with allies in advance, and then announce relevant decisions after reaching an agreement, which can also ease the relationship with allies.
Biden has made it clear that he hopes to restore close ally with Europe and the Pacific-Indian Ocean region, but many analysts believe that the United States can no longer completely repair damaged European-American relations.
In addition, Europe has continuously emphasized independence in recent years. French President Macron has even repeatedly called for the establishment of Europe's own military, which seems to have lost confidence in the United States.
Wu Xinbo pointed out that after Trump’s toss, Europeans’ sense of trust in the United States has been severely weakened, and the transatlantic partnership is unlikely to return to the past.
"On the whole, Europe is facing an era of multi-polarity, rather than an era of unipolarity and revolving around the United States. In the long run, Europe must strengthen strategic autonomy, although transatlantic relations will be restored. Contradictions and frictions will decrease, but it is no longer possible to return to the state of Obama, because the United States has changed, Europe has changed, and the world has also changed."
Yuan Zheng believes that although Europeans are very dissatisfied with the Trump administration, they and the United States still recognize each other in terms of values. European countries still have great expectations for the upcoming Biden administration and hope that Europe and the United States can continue to cooperate. , To maintain a harmonious transatlantic relationship.
"In recent years, many emerging countries have risen, but the U.S.'s influence and overall strength are still far ahead. Therefore, in the current global context, I don't think we can subjectively downplay the relationship between the United States and Europe. But Europe will not be the same as in the past. Run behind the United States, and will seek economic and trade cooperation with other countries."
Conjecture 6 Relations with international organizations
Abandon "America First" and re-add group?
On November 24, 2020 local time, when Biden introduced his foreign policy and national security team in Wilmington, Delaware, he said that “the United States is back” and “the United States is ready to lead the world again”, and he will abandon special policies. The unilateralism and "America First" policy in the Lampe period.
This statement is in sharp contrast to Trump's "retirement" model.
On the first day of his formal entry into the White House, Trump signed an executive order to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the grounds that this agreement hurts American manufacturing.
After that, Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement on the grounds of "unfair to the United States", withdrew from UNESCO and the United Nations Human Rights Council on the grounds of "prejudice against Israel", and withdrew from the Iranian nuclear issue on the grounds of Iran's failure to perform. According to the agreement, Russia withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Sky Treaty because it did not comply with the agreement, and withdrew from the Universal Postal Union on the grounds that it was not in the interests of the United States.
When the new crown epidemic raged across the United States, Trump also withdrew from the World Health Organization, which led the global fight against the epidemic.
Richard Haas, chairman of the US Council on Foreign Relations, once wrote in the "Washington Post" that Trump's foreign policy can be directly named "withdrawalism."
Yuan Zheng told a reporter from the Beijing News that the Trump administration has always put the interests of the United States in absolute priority, and its unilateralism and protectionism are very strong.
As long as it feels that it is not in the interests of the United States, we must withdraw from the group, regardless of international obligations or even the views of other allies.
As a veteran American politician, Biden will obviously take a different path.
He has repeatedly stated that "America is back" and criticized Trump's withdrawal and addiction.
Secretary of State Blinken nominated by Biden also emphasized that the United States will strengthen cooperation with other countries.
But can Biden add back all the "groups" Trump has withdrawn?
Yuan Zheng said that Biden and the team support multilateral cooperation, emphasize the relationship with allies and partners, and advocate playing a leading role in the field of global governance.
They will definitely rejoin the political legacy of the Obama era such as the "Paris Climate Agreement" and the Iranian Nuclear Agreement. They will definitely rejoin; WHO is withdrawing, and Biden may stop withdrawing and propose a set of reform plans; Biden will rejoin the United Nations The Human Rights Council, because he attaches great importance to the promotion of ideology and values; on the WTO issue, although the United States has not withdrawn, it has basically paralyzed the WTO. After Biden takes office, he may unite with Western allies to launch WTO reforms. Program.
In terms of arms control, Trump withdrew from the "Intermediate-Range-Range Treaty" and "Open Skies Treaty". After Bibb takes office, he should renegotiate with Russia to seek a more stable and balanced situation.
Wu Xinbo also said that the most important change in Bi's foreign strategy after he took office was the return from unilateralism to multilateralism.
There are some "groups", he made it clear that he will rejoin immediately after taking office, such as the "Paris Climate Agreement", the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, etc.; the WHO has not completely withdrawn, and Biden is likely to stop the withdrawal process.
There are also some organizations that may be affected by the political environment and have difficulty returning quickly.
"For example, CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement), Biden may want to join, but the domestic trade protectionism sentiment is still strong; UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Universal Postal Union, etc., Biden may Rejoin, but it may not be a priority."
Wu Xinbo pointed out that the Trump administration’s frequent "retirements" not only affected the reputation and global influence of the United States, but also negatively affected international mechanisms and global governance.
Therefore, Biden's return to multilateralism is beneficial to the normal operation of international mechanisms and the promotion of global governance.
"For example, in response to the issue of climate change, the United States is a major emitter, and its withdrawal has severely weakened the effectiveness of the Paris Climate Agreement. There is also the Iran nuclear agreement. After the United States withdraws, the United States will basically not be able to operate smoothly. It is conducive to the normal operation of these international mechanisms and international organizations, and it is also conducive to promoting the settlement of some international issues."
In fact, after Biden confirmed his election as president, UN Secretary-General Guterres, WHO Director-General Ghebreyesus, UNESCO Director-General Azoulay and others all expressed their expectation to cooperate with his government when congratulating him. "Close cooperation".
However, experts believe that it remains to be seen whether Biden will re-join the group as promised and play its due role in global affairs.
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi and Xie Lian