It is trying to set pre-limits for its position, refusing to negotiate its missile program

Tehran is not in a hurry to return Washington to the nuclear deal

• Khamenei seeks not to place hopes on the Biden administration.

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• The Iranian missile program is under great pressure from America and the West.

  Father

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On January 8, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Republic, Ali Khamenei, in his speech marking the anniversary of the uprising of the city of Qom against the Shah's regime in 1978, sent several messages to Western powers, before the arrival of the new US President Joe Biden to the White House on the 20th of the same month.

In fact, these messages will represent governing determinants of Iranian policy during the coming stage, which will witness political and security entitlements that do not seem easy, the most important of which is the holding of the Iranian presidential elections on June 18.

An obvious contradiction

What is striking about Khamenei's speech is that it reflected the contradiction in Iranian policy in the current period. While he indicated that the Iranian regional presence supports security and stability in the region, he at the same time affirmed Iran's commitment to support its allies.

In the first place, this means that Tehran considers that its influence in crisis countries and its relations with many non-state actors, especially armed militias, helps to support the stability of these countries and contributes to reducing the activity of terrorist organizations.

Without a doubt, this does not correspond to the facts on the ground, which clearly indicate that the Iranian regional role has been a major cause of exacerbating the various crises and impeding the efforts that have been made to reach political settlements for them.

In addition, Khamenei was keen to direct instructions to refuse to purchase vaccines announced by Western companies to combat the "Covid-19" virus, as he adopted in this context the theory of "conspiracy", indicating that if these vaccines had been proven effective, the numbers of infections and deaths would not have occurred. It rose dramatically in the United States of America, and based in the same context on the issue of "blood contaminated with HIV" that escalated in the Iranian domestic arena in the eighties of the last century, after it caused the death of a number of Iranians, and was later proven to have originated in France.

Here, the contradiction appears clearer, as the refusal to purchase these products came shortly after the attempts to "politicize vaccines", by promoting allegations about Iran's inability to purchase them due to the US sanctions imposed on it, which proved to be lacking in credibility, especially After several reports indicated that Iran would receive 150,000 doses of the US "Pfizer" vaccine, which it had provided in the form of donations.

Parallel steps

Khamenei's keenness to confirm that Iran is not in a hurry to return the United States of America to the nuclear agreement, in light of his attempts to strengthen its negotiating position, and to promote that it is in a position that will not push it to make concessions based on the pressure exerted by the United States of America, European countries, and even the International Agency. For atomic energy.

In other words, Khamenei's statements come in response to the attempts of those parties to expand the scope of any potential negotiations in the future to include other contentious files that were not included in the nuclear agreement, foremost among which is the ballistic missile program and the regional role. It was remarkable, for example, that Jake Sullivan, the president's advisor Biden was keen, on January 3, to confirm that the ballistic missile program would be on the table if the United States returned to the nuclear deal.

Here, it seemed intentionally that these statements coincided with the Revolutionary Guard’s announcement of a new missile base in the Gulf. On the same day that Khamenei delivered his speech, the commander of the Pasdaran, Hossein Salami, visited that base, stressing that it is “one of several reservation facilities. The strategic missiles of the Revolutionary Guards, ”indicating that“ they have missile columns and launch systems that extend to several kilometers, and that these missiles have a range of hundreds of kilometers and are characterized by accurate aiming, and very high destructive power, as well as being able to pass through the enemy's electronic warfare equipment. ”

It is also noteworthy in this context that these steps coincided with the first anniversary of the downing of the Iranian ground defenses, the Ukrainian civilian aircraft, a few hours after the missile attacks launched by Iran on two Iraqi bases where US forces were present in response to the killing of the commander of the "Quds Force" of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, accompanied by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Deputy Secretary General of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Militia.

The downing of the Ukrainian plane caused an escalation of tension between Iran and the countries concerned with it, namely Canada, Sweden, Ukraine and Afghanistan, whose foreign ministers issued a joint statement, on January 8th, urging Iran to provide a full explanation for the downing of the plane, and they added: “Our country will prepare Iran. Responsible for achieving justice, and ensuring that full compensation is provided to the families of the victims and the countries affected by the accident.

Without a doubt, the message is clear, which is that Iran will not back down from its position on continuing to develop its missile program, even with the mounting pressure on it at the present time from Western countries.

This is primarily due to the fact that Iran considers that the missile program is the main source of power that it possesses, through which it can reduce the possibilities of exposure to large-scale military attacks by the United States of America and Israel, given that these missiles are capable of reaching Israel and American interests in the region.

In light of this, it can be said in the end that Iran is keen to promote that it is not waiting for understandings with the Biden administration, nor a possible change in the US policy towards it, which could push it to continue its escalatory moves at various levels in the next stage.

What is striking here is that some of the militias loyal to it are keen to export the same message, similar to Hezbollah, whose Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, stressed on the same day that “no indications of Iranian-American understandings will appear soon, nor will there be any. Direct repercussions on the political scene in Lebanon, ”noting that“ Biden and his team have their priority on the American interior, ”which is the same vision that Tehran adopts at the present time.

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Iran is keen to promote that it is not waiting for understandings with the Biden administration, nor for a possible change in US policy towards it, which could push it to continue its escalatory moves at various levels in the next stage.

- Khamenei's keenness to confirm that Iran is not in a hurry to return the United States of America to the nuclear deal, in light of his attempts to strengthen its negotiating position, and to promote that it is in a position that will not push it to make concessions based on the pressure exerted by the American administration, European countries, and even the International Agency. For atomic energy.

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