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January 15, 2021 Employment in Italy will return to increase only next year, due to the coronavirus crisis.

This was supported by the Bank of Italy in the economic bulletin.

Employment, measured in terms of hours worked, will recover by 2023 the fall suffered last year (-11%).

The number of employees, "which fell to a lesser extent (-1.9% in 2020) thanks to the extensive use of layoffs", will continue to decrease again this year (-0.9%), "discounting the delayed effects of the crisis ".

It will increase again in the next two years, with + 1.7% in 2022 and + 1.3% in 2023. In the summer quarter of 2020, explains Palazzo Koch, "with the reopening of the activities suspended in the spring, the hours worked and recourse to wage integration tools has been reduced. The number of employed positions has also started to grow ".

However, the latest available data indicate "a new increase in the use of layoffs starting from October, albeit at much lower levels than those reached during the first wave of infections. In November, the recovery of the number of new job positions was substantially interrupted , highlighting a gap compared to the same period of the previous year, especially for young people and women ".



Growth in 2021 to 3.5%, recovery postponed

The second pandemic wave, as in the other countries of the area, caused a new contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter "which, albeit with high uncertainty, can be estimated in the order of -3 , 5% ", notes Bank of Italy in the economic bulletin: the dragging effect of the decline at the end of 2020 on the first months of the current year postpones a robust recovery to the summer and cuts the 2021 growth estimate to + 3.5% , more than one point less than the July forecasts. The acceleration in 2022 to + 3.8% is more decisive, and with +2.3 for 2023.



A third of households are planning a new contraction in consumption

In the next three a little less than a third of Italian families plan to further decrease non-durable consumption such as food, lunches and dinners, travel and holidays. This is what is stated in the economic bulletin of the Bank of Italy according to which "for about half of these families, the reduction in spending would be greater

to 20 percent ". The decline, notes the central institute," would mainly affect households residing in the regions most exposed to the health emergency;

it would also affect just over a quarter of those who expect an increase in income in 2021 ".



The fear of Covid slows the economy more than the lockdown

" It is the fears of contagion, rather than the restrictive measures, that further slow down the consumption of services " , notes Bankitalia in its economic bulletin, citing data from a survey among Italian families. The decline in economic activity - writes Bankitalia - "was pronounced in services and marginal in manufacturing", with the expectations of companies worsening for the second wave but far from the pessimism achieved in the first half of last year ": companies intend to expand their investment plans for 2021.



ECB and government measures support bank credit

Banks" have continued to satisfy the demand for funds from businesses. supply conditions remained generally relaxed also thanks to monetary and governmental policy measures to support liquidity ".

This is what we read in the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy according to which, unlike in other countries, the dynamics of credit to non-financial companies remains robust (8.9 per cent), still driven by the large recourse of companies to covered loans from public guarantee.

"Loans to households expanded at an almost unchanged pace compared to August (4.1 per cent). Mortgages accelerated slightly, while consumer credit remained weak".