Trump indicted: what can happen after the second "impeachment"?
US President Donald Trump in Washington, returning from a visit to Texas on the Mexican border, January 12, 2021. AP - Gerald Herbert
Text by: RFI Follow
6 min
Unsurprisingly, the United States House of Representatives voted to indict Donald Trump for "inciting insurgency" during the assault on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6.
However, there is still a long way to go in this “impeachment” procedure.
The act of impeachment must now be voted on by the Senate which is not currently sitting until the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20.
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Donald Trump became the first President of the United States to be
indicted for the second time in Congress
on Wednesday
, a week before the end of his term which is ending in a climate of extreme tension.
A few days before his departure for Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where he should start his new life as a former president, Donald Trump appears very isolated.
"
Unless one decides unanimously the Senators back side before the inauguration, there will be no impeachment trial before the departure of President Trump, representing a complication
"
,
said Christophe Cloutier- Roy researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at the University of Quebec in Montreal, at the microphone of
Oriane Verdier,
of the International service of RFI.
Towards a postponement of the trial to the Senate?
What follow-up to this historic vote?
Democrats do not all agree on a timetable which therefore remains uncertain.
The risk is that it monopolizes all the attention and hinders legislative action at the start of the future president's mandate, by monopolizing the sessions.
"
I hope the Senate will find a way to manage their constitutional responsibilities regarding the impeachment trial, while conducting the urgent affairs of the nation,
" asked Joe Biden, citing among other things the confirmation of members of his cabinet, the relaunch the US economy, and the continuation of the Covid-19 vaccine distribution plan.
"
There is the idea put forward by some Democrats,
explains Christophe Cloutier-Roy,
not to immediately send the articles for impeachment to the Senate because we want to give the new President Biden a chance to have time in the first days of his mandate to ensure the appointments of various ministers, to put forward his priorities.
But we must still understand that given the gravity of the actions that took place last week on Capitol Hill, it is unthinkable for Democrats not to punish the president for his actions.
"
►
To listen: Impeachment: American Democrats on a ridge line
What majority for impeachment?
Rudy Giuliani, the personal lawyer of Donald Trump and Alan Dershowitz are approached to defend the president, specifies
Romain Lemaresquier,
of the International service of RFI.
They will have to convince senators that he did not encourage his supporters to storm the Capitol.
A vote will then be held to decide whether or not he is responsible.
A two-thirds vote, that is to say that 67 votes will be necessary, knowing that the Democrats have 50 senators, plus the vote of future Vice-President
Kamala Harris
.
This therefore implies that the votes of Republican senators will be necessary to remove Donald Trump.
Making Trump ineligible in 2024
The other question is the finality of an impeachment procedure impossible to carry out before the end of Donald Trump's mandate.
However, continues the Quebec researcher, "
if we manage to condemn President Trump, even after the end of his mandate, there would be the possibility of subsequently voting to prevent the president from being able to stand for re-election in the future," especially in 2024 during the next presidential election.
But it is a bet which is quite risky all the same.
"
In the event of dismissal, the outgoing president will not however be declared ineligible.
Then lawmakers will have to invoke the 14th Amendment and proceed with a simple majority vote so that Donald Trump can never run for office again.
Republicans: How to turn the Trump page?
This new stage promises important debates even within Republicans.
Because if Donald Trump is still very supported by his party in the House of Representatives, the Republican senators are more divided on the issue.
“
Most of the Republican Conference in the House of Representatives continues to line up behind President Trump,
confirms Christophe Cloutier-Roy.
However, in the Senate, we already feel more openness to condemn President Trump.
Some senators have said bluntly that they want Trump to go away.
Even the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, would be happy, according to reports, if there was a new impeachment lawsuit against the president.
So is this going to translate into Republican impeachment votes?
"
McConnell, the key man
According to the researcher, “
it is still early to know all the fallout from last week's incident.
But it is certain that what we see appearing is an increasingly strong cleavage between the supporters of the president and those who somewhat represent the old Republican Guard.
This is going to be one of the interesting things to watch over the next few years in Washington: How will the Republican Party navigate its internal dissension?
What to do with the legacy that Donald Trump leaves to this party?
"
"
I have not made my final decision on my vote, I intend to listen to the legal arguments when they are presented in the Senate,
" Mitch McConnell wrote to fellow Republicans in a note released.
This clever, very influential strategist could, if he gives a signal in favor of condemnation, help the Republican Party to turn the Trump page for good.
►
To read also: United States: "The Republican Party will find itself divided at the end of Trump's mandate"
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