Paris (AFP)

Two weeks from the finish, several skippers can claim to win the ninth edition of the Vendée Globe.

The victory will be for the skipper who will have been able to minimize the risks in terms of road, weather and breakage.

Better to be a good strategist than a great player summarizes for AFP the head of the weather unit of the Vendée Globe, Christian Dumard.

For the only double winner of the race, Michel Desjoyeaux, victory is "a question of lucidity and above all of luck".

Another Vendée Globe winner, Alain Gautier does not believe in a duel.

"With a very tight fleet, the one who is at 100% will have better luck."

According to the latest estimates provided to AFP on Wednesday by Christian Dumard, the head of the fleet should be off Recife (Brazil) on Friday for a passage from Ecuador on Saturday.

"These are pretty quick scenarios for the end of the race, with an arrival scheduled between January 26 and 28, with a high probability around January 27," he said.

- Luck -

"At the moment, it's a question of lucidity and above all you need luck, that's what is the most terrible. I realize that, I am one of the few to have finished two Vendée Globes out of two. When you see the number of chances there are not to finish, it's an incredible chance to succeed in finishing, ”warns Desjoyeaux.

“There are boats that have dismasted or lost their keel in the Bay of Biscay. Mike Golding, when he finished 3rd in 2004, crossed the finish line without a keel under the boat, it was 50 nautical miles from Les Sables. The boats are tired, you can have a big problem, you are not safe, ”he recalls.

The sailor makes a few projections on this end of the round the world trip: "If we end up with classic weather conditions, where everything is tidy, it will be the fastest boat in these conditions that will win. If they come out of Ecuador together, if it's the grand bazaar that looks like what they had at the start, it will be played at 421! "

"We are more on risk management than play," says Christian Dumard.

"To be very playful today is the risk of losing a lot and losing a lot would mean that when we get there we may miss an opportunity while if we are not far behind, there may be some. be who will open up, ”he explains.

- tired boats -

"The boats are starting to get tired, they have sailed in tough conditions, the slightest technical problem means fifteen hours quickly lost, and there we quickly lose a few places".

"This year, it looks quite complicated and we have a very original Vendée Globe. The originality may continue and the one who passed Cape Horn in the lead will not be the winner," notes Alain Gautier.

"There were examples of fairly improbable returns due to the distance between the 1st and 2nd at Cape Horn. I am thinking of Armel (Le Cléac'h) and Alex (Thomson) in 2016, of Michel Desjoyeaux and Ellen McArthur in 2000 where there were over 600 nautical miles reduced to very little when they passed the Equator. "

"If we imagine a passage of Ecuador and the Doldrums with a very tight fleet, the one who will be 100% will have more luck," he said.

© 2021 AFP