The return of momentum in forming regional alliances and calming crisis regional files raises questions about Cairo's role in these interactions, in light of its direct intertwining with Egypt's national security and regional role.

According to observers and experts, Cairo may be affected by the expected transformations and interactions, the most prominent of which is the increase in the pace of Arab normalization with Israel, a step that observers attributed to the formation of a Sunni-Israeli-American alliance to confront Iran, but normalization - especially the UAE - was not in the positive image of Cairo, which began to feel its national security And its regional role, which is gradually eroding, according to observers.

The huge gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean also triggered a series of conflict axes in the region, and it seemed on the horizon to distinguish between two opposing axes, one of which is Turkey and the other includes Greece, Cyprus and Israel alongside Egypt, whose repercussions extended to include the Libyan file.

In the Gulf, the Gulf crisis witnessed a breakthrough following the announcement of the quartet reconciliation with Qatar in the past few days, while the Egyptian position remains completely unclear so far regarding this reconciliation.

On the other hand, the rise of the US President-elect, Joe Biden, who is known for his half-hearted stances towards the Egyptian regime, threatens relations between the two countries, and in response to this, analysts expected that Cairo may wave Russia and China cards in the face of the new US administration, but without threatening the strategic alliance with Washington.

# Scenarios - How will the results of the Gulf reconciliation be reflected in the hot files in the region?


Episode introduction with @MhamedKrichen


Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://t.co/8ROuSF56OUpic.twitter.com/6mLcwsUqm7

- Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) January 8, 2021

The Gulf Reconciliation

The most prominent regional interactions recently has been the Gulf reconciliation, as Cairo’s position remains unclear despite the faint praise of Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who represented his country at the Al-Ula summit in Saudi Arabia.

Last Friday, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an article by Middle East analyst Zvi Barel, in which he said that Sisi "was not satisfied with some of the terms of the agreement, which he believes are exaggerated concessions and harm to Egypt's interests."

However, Barel stressed that Sisi "cannot publicly oppose Saudi Arabia's policy and sabotage efforts to rehabilitate his country's image in the United States, so he sent a representative (Shukri) instead of appearing himself."

In this context, Egyptian diplomat Mohamed Morsi - who was the last ambassador to Egypt in Qatar before the diplomatic relations between the two countries was severed - says that Sisi's failure to participate in the summit "should not be interpreted as a reservation or objection to reconciliation," explaining that "if Egypt were conservative or Rejecting reconciliation, it declared so openly and without equivocation. "

The Egyptian ambassador pointed out that Cairo "responded to all efforts and endeavors aimed at ending the crisis, and has always kept its doors open to every sincere effort."

Reconciliation with Qatar (2): A lot of confusion and a long debate that started yesterday shortly after the end of the Al-Ula Gulf summit, and the participation of ...

Posted by Amb Mohamed Morsy on Wednesday, January 6, 2021

In turn, Egyptian academic and political analyst Hossam El-Shazly considered the Gulf reconciliation "one of the direct follow-ups to the US President-elect Joe Biden taking his place in the White House."

Al-Shazly expected, in statements to Al-Jazeera Net, that "after the Gulf reconciliation, Egypt will be left isolated by its enmity, which has become a method for its politicized media and its confrontational foreign policy," according to his description, stressing that the biggest loser in this crisis is the ruling regime in Egypt.

He explained that the Sisi regime "supported the boycott in all its forms and made it the basis for a great enmity with Qatar, although there is no camel or camel for Egypt in the fratricidal conflict in the Gulf, and it has not previously supported the boycott policies in the region."

In agreement with the previous proposal, the Egyptian academic and researcher in political science Muhammad Al-Zawawi believes that "Cairo is far from influencing the Gulf crisis," noting that "the country with Gulf weight is Saudi Arabia in terms of its geostrategic weight. As for the planning process for that alliance it is The UAE, with its current leadership, as well as its economic solvency. "

As for the Egyptian authority - according to Zawawi’s interview with Al-Jazeera Net- "it shares with them the hostility to a group of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as resisting the spread of democracy through the media, especially Al-Jazeera and others," stressing that the authority's view of these two files will not change by changing the visions of the leaders of that alliance Although not very influential in his output.

An anti-Iran axis

Regarding the Egyptian role in forming an axis against Iran, the Egyptian academic Hussam al-Shazly believes that Cairo will not have a clear position against Iran even if this is the goal of the return of Gulf unity, except in the case of a new position from Israel against Iran, which has become clear that the Egyptian regime has become He follows the steps of its regional and international policy, as Israel is his closest ally that supports it in all forums, as he put it.

As for Al-Zawawi, he believes that "Cairo is obliged to ally itself against Iran by strengthening this alliance militarily with its large land army," within the "framework of Egyptian national security interests in the Gulf."

He explained that there are 5 million Egyptian workers in the Gulf that generate foreign remittances vital to the economy, and if they return within the framework of security problems with Iran, they will burden the Egyptian economy, which is unable to provide jobs or diversify its non-rentier resources.

A message to # Biden monitors the most prominent violations of #human rights in #Egypt .. Does he differ in his dealings with # Sisi? # Evening # America # Trump pic.twitter.com/bc1vqqPD85

- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) December 8, 2020

The dispute with Turkey

Despite indications of the Egyptian-Turkish truce, observers emphasized that the relations between the two countries would not reach the normal they were 7 years ago.

In this context, El-Shazly expects that his position will develop into a direct and strong hostility with Turkey, or that the nature of those relations will change according to the White House's index towards them, which Sisi will only be a direct reflection of.

In turn, Al-Zawawi said that the trio of Israel, Cyprus and Greece ignored Egypt, which has a desire to be a regional hub for liquefying gas, as it ignored this with a pipeline project that reaches Italy, bypassing Egypt, which is one of the largest gas consumers in the region.

Hence, according to Zawawi, Egypt participates in that alliance in order to achieve its interests in fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam hosted by Turkey, as a kind of pressure card on Ankara to reduce criticism of the Egyptian regime.

Head east

Observers expect that Cairo will continue to "wave" the card of Russia and China, without threatening its strategic alliance with Washington, which could put it at risk.

In previous statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Mohamed Hamed, director of the Eastern Mediterranean Forum for Political and Strategic Studies (non-governmental / based in Cairo) expected that the Egyptian foreign policy would return to the "balance square" and not fall into the arms of the American administration if it felt that it bore hostility and hatred to it or uttered its domestic and foreign policies. .

Where is Cairo from the new hubs?

Hossam El-Shazly expects that the coming period will bring about major change and events in the region and its geopolitical map, some of which may lead to changing or modifying the ruling map, or even direct confrontations that require a stronger presence of the United States in the region.

Regarding Egypt's position in light of these changes, Al-Shazly stressed that it will be "severely affected even if its rulers try to send many messages that everything is fine and that nothing has changed."

In turn, Al-Zawawi expected Egypt to continue "playing the role of a generous customer to buy American weapons in the Biden era to buy the legitimacy of the regime," noting that the regime "will continue to maneuver the France and Russia papers in order to diversify arms sources and reduce potential American pressure, given its record in the field of human rights." ".

He added that "the most important ally of the United States in the region is Israel, and now, more importantly, Greece, which is expected to be an alternative to Turkey in establishing military bases instead of the Turkish Incirlik base, in order to contain Russia and the event that Ankara leaves the Western alliance."

In the context of the process of reconfiguring alliances taking place in the region, Egypt - according to Zawawi - "no longer has a tangible role, whether in leading alliances, or even in being an influential member in any of them."