On January 11, trilateral talks between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia will take place in Moscow.

The meeting will be held at the initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin press service reported.

"It is planned to consider the implementation of the statement of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia on Nagorno-Karabakh dated November 9, 2020 and discuss further steps to resolve the problems in the region," the message says. 

It is clarified that the subject of special attention will be to provide assistance to residents of areas affected by hostilities, as well as unblock trade, economic and transport links.

“In addition, separate conversations between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan are envisaged,” the Kremlin noted.

The announcement of the working visit to Moscow was also published on the official website of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

As the press secretary of the Prime Minister of Armenia Mane Gevorkian wrote on her Facebook, the agenda of the talks will include the issues of opening regional communications and international cargo transportation.

She noted that for Yerevan, the cornerstone remains a full exchange of detainees, as well as the expansion of the scale of search and rescue operations in the zone where hostilities were previously taking place.

On the eve of talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Vladimir Putin held a meeting to discuss the settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh and the situation in the South Caucasus.

It was attended by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.

  • Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron

  • RIA News

  • © Sergey Guneev

On January 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin also held a telephone conversation with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.

The leaders discussed issues related to the upcoming trilateral talks in Moscow.

"The French President expressed support for Russia's efforts to facilitate the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement," the Kremlin press service said.

Renewal of the war

Recall that hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh resumed at the end of September 2020.

Yerevan and Baku accused each other of exacerbating the situation, and martial law was declared in both countries.

The territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh began in the late 1980s, when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the USSR.

In 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was proclaimed in Stepanakert, which was not recognized by either Azerbaijan, Armenia or the international community.

From 1991 to 1994, there was a war in the region.

In order to stop the bloodshed, the OSCE Minsk Group was created, which included 11 countries under the chairmanship of Russia, France and the United States.

Some progress was made only in 1994, when Moscow organized negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.

In March of the same year, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh signed a ceasefire agreement. 

  • The place of the missile hit during the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh

  • Reuters

  • © Umit Bektas

The new aggravation that began last autumn was stopped following the results of 11-hour talks between the foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow.

On October 10, the text of a joint statement was published, which referred to a number of settlement measures.

In particular, a humanitarian ceasefire was announced for the exchange of detainees and bodies of the dead.

It was also specified that Baku and Yerevan, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, are starting substantive negotiations with the aim of achieving a peaceful settlement as soon as possible. 

A month later, on November 10, the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint statement declaring a complete ceasefire and all hostilities.

“The Azerbaijan Republic and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the parties, stop at their positions,” the document said.

The statement also contained clauses on the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone for a five-year period with automatic extension by agreement of the parties.

Baku and Yerevan agreed on the return of the Kelbajar and Lachin regions to Azerbaijan, as well as on the operation of the Lachin corridor, which will ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

In addition, Yerevan guaranteed the safety of transport links between the western regions of the Azerbaijan Republic and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.

According to the document, refugees and internally displaced persons must return to Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas.

At the beginning of December, the Lachin region came under the control of Azerbaijan, as reported by the President of the Republic, Ilham Aliyev.

In turn, Armenia reported on the start of demarcation work on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

"Karvachar (Kelbajar) region passed to Azerbaijan, as a result, instead of the former border of Armenia with Artsakh (self-name of Nagorno-Karabakh. -

RT

), a border was formed between Armenia and Azerbaijan," the country's Defense Ministry said.

  • Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh

  • RIA News

  • © Maxim Blinov

In addition, as it was reported in Stepanakert, communication was restored in the NKR with the assistance of Russian peacekeepers.

As of early December, over 28 thousand refugees from the territory of Armenia returned to the region.

Such statistics were provided by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov.

By January 10, 2021, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, this figure reached 48.2 thousand. The agency conducts round-the-clock monitoring of the situation and control over the observance of the ceasefire from 23 observation posts.

In addition, demining work continues in the region.

As RIA Novosti reported on January 9, citing a representative of the Russian peacekeepers, from 800 to a thousand ammunition is destroyed in Stepanakert a day.

As noted the day before in the Russian Ministry of Defense, almost 440 hectares of territory, about 165 km of roads, 618 buildings have been cleared of unexploded ordnance since November 23, 2020.

Fragile world

Despite the fact that the process of peaceful settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh continues, experts note that several tense moments have been noted in the region recently.

“The most acute issue is the demarcation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

There have already been inconsistencies associated with individual villages.

There were also aggressive notes in the rhetoric of both sides.

Therefore, there is a need for a trilateral meeting, "said Vladimir Novikov, senior researcher at the Institute of Social and Political Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, in an interview with RT.

Pavel Feldman, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the RUDN University, shares a similar point of view.

“From time to time, various contradictions arise between the parties.

But the main meaning of all agreements is to stop the violence, that there is a clear roadmap for a political settlement of the problem.

And this was achieved thanks to the mediation of Russia, "the expert explained in an interview with RT.

  • Refugees who returned home to Stepanakert

  • RIA News

  • © Maxim Blinov

He also noted that the most difficult issue today is the issue of marking the borders in the regions previously under the control of Armenia.

“When a border is drawn, it passes through residential areas, through villages, through small villages.

All this affects the fate of specific people.

As for the humanitarian sphere, there are great successes here, ”the analyst said.

At the same time, experts are not inclined to long-term forecasts regarding stability in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“It is too early to talk about a final settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Moreover, I believe that a relapse of the conflict is possible, a slide into a new aggravation, ”explained Vladimir Novikov.

Pavel Feldman expressed a similar point of view.

“Considering the role of the Russian peacekeepers, there is a feeling that in the medium term, peace in the region will still be able to be maintained.

One of the factors of instability today is the political situation in Armenia, where anti-government protests took place.

It should be borne in mind that the destabilization of Armenia can negatively affect the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, ”the expert notes.

At the same time, as analysts state, the parties managed to come to the most important thing - to stop the death of people.

“This is the most valuable achievement.

Now the transport issue will come to the fore.

For example, Baku wants a direct corridor to the Azerbaijani exclave in Armenia.

Such questions traditionally become the subject of political dialogue, ”Feldman added.

In his opinion, it is premature to talk about a final settlement of the conflict, since the confrontation has become chronic.

However, with such a mediator as the Russian Federation, stability can be achieved.

“Such disputes cannot be completely extinguished, they are always in a dormant state.

At best, they can be frozen by using peacekeepers and starting a political dialogue.

Russia can help in this, because Moscow has traditionally been the platform where the post-Soviet republics negotiated.

You need a powerful country as a mediator that sticks to its promises.

Russia is more interested than Western countries in stability in the Transcaucasus.

That is why it helps to establish peace, ”Feldman summed up.