Swedish flag in German demonstration against restrictive coronavirus measures -
Alexander Pohl / Sipa USA / SIPA
This Friday, the Swedish government adopted a new legal framework allowing it to take new restrictive measures against the spread of the coronavirus, and to punish offenders.
A new nail in the coffin of what was presented as the “Swedish model”, namely the idea that self-regulation of the population only on the basis of incentives could be enough to contain the epidemic.
Catastrophic figures, painful comparison with the Nordic neighbors, admission of royal failure… The Swedish model today resonates as a defeat for the country.
This Friday, Sweden adopted the law on "special limitations to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 disease", more soberly summarized in "pandemilagen" (pandemic law).
It offers the country's government a new legal framework so that it can apply stronger restrictions in order to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
The law will come into force this Sunday until the end of September,
The Prime Minister of the country, Stefan Löfven, announced the first measurements a few hours later, including a gauge of one person every 10 square meters in the main Swedish closed places.
Above all, for the first time since the coronavirus hit Sweden, fines could be given to offenders.
The end of a mirage
This law confirms the end of the “Swedish model”.
By not confining itself to spring, by delaying the incentive to wear a mask for several months, and by favoring recommendations over obligations, the Nordic country stood out from the rest of Europe in the face of the first wave.
Many voices were raised in confined countries, especially in France, to invite to follow this model rather than confinements or strict measures.
But the very bad Swedish figures (notably an incidence of 785 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over fourteen days, according to the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention - ECDC -, against 272 for France) and the arrival of mandatory measures seem to show the failure of this model.
A stillborn model?
Data visualization researcher Lonni Bensançon at Linköping University in Sweden has a long history of modeling the various coronavirus figures in Sweden and neighboring countries.
For him, it's not that the Swedish model no longer works, it's that it has never worked.
Explanation: “Faced with these Nordic neighbors, Sweden has had catastrophic results since the start of the first wave.
For example, it has five times more deaths than three of its border countries combined.
You only have to compare it to countries like it, the other Nordic countries, to understand that Sweden has completely taken the wrong path.
"
6. The figures at the time all this was considered were already dramatic, as a reminder this is where the situation was on December 28th.
pic.twitter.com/CzP7brdjZN
- Lonni Besançon (@lonnibesancon) January 8, 2021
Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva, confirms that Sweden is surrounded by "the best European champions in the fight against the coronavirus", such as Norway, Finland, Denmark or Iceland.
"These countries now seem to be the models that we would like to better understand or even emulate in the rest of Europe," he continues.
With a record that is definitely better than Stockholm
The illusion of success
According to Lonni Bensançon, the mirage of the Swedish model would only have worked because there would have been biased comparisons with very different countries.
"The health system, the average age, the population density, the less tactile side of the population has nothing to do between Sweden and France, Spain or Italy with whom we absolutely wanted make comparisons.
These did not make sense ", he explains:" Sweden had everything to successfully fight against the coronavirus, and it does little better, or even worse for some figures, than France or Spain .
This is what shows his failure.
"Thus in 2020, Sweden has 94.70 deaths from the coronavirus per 100,000 inhabitants, against 99.39 in France ... But Norway has only 8.87 and Finland 10.67.
It was only by poorly comparing Sweden that his model could seem relevant, “but the country, given its favorable conditions, should have done much better than France or Spain, not just done a little less. worse, ”notes the researcher.
And there is not him who thinks it.
The country's king, Carl XVI Gustaf, admitted on December 17 that his nation "had failed" in its fight against the coronavirus.
Even the government quickly wanted to reverse the trend, as Lonni Bensançon reports: “In reality, when we say that Sweden has taken no action, it is false.
Very quickly, she realized that it was not working, and action was taken.
Bars with insufficient distancing space between patrons have been pushed shut, the sale of alcohol after 8 p.m. has been banned, universities and high schools have been closed, gatherings limited, the country has encouraged to wear a mask ... The list of measures grows over the weeks, proof that the government has not been completely lax.
But Antoine Flahault makes the observation: “The Swedes have poorly applied the barrier measures and have relied almost exclusively on citizen participation for the containment measures.
Well, it is clear that this approach was insufficient to counter the pandemic.
"
The other Nordic countries, a new benchmark?
Cruelty of history, it is now to Sweden's northern neighbors that all eyes are turning to take example.
Antoine Flahault: "In reality, these Nordic countries have been able to combine the best of the Swedish and German approaches, with less dogmatism than the Swedes and perhaps more perseverance than the Germans, especially during the summer and autumn of 2020." The recipe for success ?
A participatory approach - none of these countries has experienced strict confinements - a strong testing activity, active contact tracing and rigorous implementation of quarantines, school closures, the obligation to wear a mask in transport and public places, the continuous promotion of teleworking.
A combination of complex factors, far from the simple incitement and self-regulation of citizens.
Because the epidemiologist affirms it, one thing is certain during this winter: "The only recourse to citizen participation which had worked rather well for the first wave, even in the democratic German-speaking and Nordic countries of Europe, or of Asia, seems to have reached its limits at the threshold of the second wave.
Even Japan confines the Tokyo area.
The Swedish model is a failure, but it is far from the only one.
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