Ethiopia is waiting in the new year for an important economic event that it relies on a lot for its economic revival, solving its problems in electric power, and preparing its environment to receive foreign industrial investments, as it is hoped that the construction of the largest hydroelectric project in the African continent will be completed, and one of the largest dams on rivers In the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is expected to store 74 billion cubic meters in a lake extending 246 kilometers in length.
The Renaissance Dam is expected to produce about 6 thousand megawatts of electricity;
Therefore, the project is considered the largest in the Ethiopian 2030 plan, launched by the government in 2009, and aims to combat poverty in the country, which affects about 70% of the total population, and the unemployment rate, which reached 19% in 2019, according to official statistics.
But the project, which is based on the Blue Nile, the most important tributary of the Nile, which brings 60% of the Nile River's revenue of 84 billion cubic meters annually, raises the concerns of the countries of Sudan and Egypt.
As for Egypt, its main fear is that storing water will affect its share of the Nile water, which it depends on for drinking and irrigation by 95%. As for Sudan, its main fear is that the operation of the Renaissance Dam will affect the safety of its largest and closest dam, which is the Rasiris Dam, which is 100 km from The Ethiopian Dam, and its lake ends at its edges.
The tripartite negotiations over the Renaissance Dam are not easy.
But the Ethiopians hope that it will end by consensus on the mechanism of the dam's work (the island)
Will 2021 hold a solution to the negotiation dilemma?
Ethiopia informed the two countries of Sudan and Egypt in May that it is building a dam on the Blue Nile, and since that time it has entered into negotiations with the two countries that have gone through many pitfalls over filling and operating the dam, and has achieved some successes in the points related to the safety of the dam, its engineering design and filling in periods of permanent, medium and short droughts;
However, its place is still in some technical and legal points, chief among them is how to operate it, and that what the three countries agreed upon becomes a binding agreement, and that no other agreement to share the waters of the Nile and the mechanism for resolving the conflict should be discussed if it occurs.
After an 11-year march, negotiations ended with the African Union station, which Ethiopia hopes its experts will have the role of mediators, not observers, while Egypt rejects this approach, and since last November 21, negotiations have stopped after Sudan suspended its participation in it, in opposition to its 3-year delay in opening it. On the planned date of 2017;
But political developments in Ethiopia delayed the move.
And now Ethiopia is racing against time to open the project, which is awaiting about 70% of Ethiopia's population who are deprived of electricity, and the amount of energy expected to be generated by the dam will provide a platform to attract investors that Ethiopia needs to create jobs for its youth.
However, the conflict in the Tigray region is putting pressure on Abiy Ahmed and the Izdihar party to reach an agreement.
To preserve the image of the Nobel Peace Prize winner, which was greatly rocked by his accusations of violating human rights, and the violations that took place in the Tigrayan conflict.
On the domestic level, Abiy Ahmed wants to present himself that he has the consensus of the Ethiopians, and that he is the pioneer of reform and the most keen on developing the country, especially since the project at its inception was associated with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who is considered by many Ethiopians to be the spiritual father of Ethiopia's renaissance, as well as by completing this project He would send a message to Tigray that he was not against them as a national, and he was still faithful to the Meles project, which he stepped up from a military intelligence officer to an Ethiopian visionary maker.
The Ethiopian government believes that operating the Renaissance Dam will help it improve its image in Tigray (Reuters)
Will Egypt and Sudan try to exploit the case of Ethiopia?
Egypt seems to be in a better position than Sudan, as the first filling of the dam, which Ethiopia did this year, was in one of the heavy rainy seasons, and therefore Egypt did not feel it in light of its dependence on the High Dam Lake, which provides it with a reserve, even if the drought continues 10 years.
As for Sudan, its fears increase that Ethiopia will carry out the second filling in the period from August to October 2021 without reaching an agreement, which will push it to search for other options.
However, the visit of Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok on December 13, 2020, resulted in Sudan returning to the negotiating table, indicating that Ethiopia wants to settle the matter before it enters the general elections.
Will the Renaissance Dam change the reality in the region?
The impact of the dam will exceed the Ethiopian interior, and it will have a major impact on agricultural development in Sudan, which opens the door to the possibility of integration between Sudan and Ethiopia, by providing Ethiopia with electric power and Sudan providing agricultural lands, which will contribute to securing food for the people of Ethiopia in light of the fact that 25 % Of the country's population suffers from food shortages, and they receive aid from relief organizations, and this integration can develop to other horizons and produce a political alliance in the East African region.