Covid-19: World Bank lowers global economic growth
World Bank President David Malpass at a press conference in October 2019. AP - Jose Luis Magana
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The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2021 due to the persistence of the pandemic.
According to the Washington-based institution, the rebound in the global economy will largely depend on the success of vaccination campaigns.
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The World Bank forecasts a growth of 4% of the world economy this year, or 0.2 point less than in its last projection, in June 2020. Blame it on the increase in Covid-19 contamination and
the restrictions that it imposes
, which affect economic activity.
The recovery will be weaker in the Middle East and North Africa;
economic activity in the region is expected to jump 2.1% in 2021, compared to 3.3% in advanced economies.
The World Bank is especially concerned about the high level of debt of developing countries and emerging economies.
It warns of possible serial debt crises, and stresses that the Covid-19 could erase ten years of increase in per capita income in a quarter of these countries.
Highly uncertain forecasts
These setbacks, the consequence of which is the slowdown in growth, have also led, according to the World Bank, to a "
considerable
"
reduction
in public and private income.
On the one hand, tax revenues have fallen, while the processions of layoffs have affected the purchasing power of households.
The most pessimistic scenario - continued rise in Covid-19 contamination and delay in the deployment of vaccines - expects growth of only 1.6% in 2021, while the most optimistic hypothesis - control of the pandemic and
acceleration vaccination
- leans for growth of almost 5%
The Washington-based institution believes these forecasts are highly uncertain.
Everything will depend on the success of the vaccination campaigns against Covid-19, or conversely on any prolonged upsurges of the virus.
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Economy
Economic crisis
Coronavirus
world Bank