New York (AFP)

After a cheeky surge on the stock market and record deliveries in 2020, Tesla is in a strong position for another year of sustained growth even if the mass adoption of electric vehicles by drivers is not yet within reach.

"Having succeeded in increasing sales by 36% in 2020, when all the major manufacturers saw their figures drop (because of the pandemic), is impressive", remarks Karl Brauer of the specialized site Iseecars.

The effect on the markets has been colossal: Tesla shares have appreciated 743% in twelve months so that the group is now worth around $ 700 billion on Wall Street, less than 70 billion of Facebook.

Tesla entered the prestigious S&P 500 index in December after having managed to make money for five consecutive quarters.

But the confidence of the markets is incomparable with the sales of the group, which sold only 499,550 cars in 2020, far from the giants of the sector such as Volkswagen and its 11 million vehicles sold in 2019.

However, positive signals are accumulating for the group led by Elon Musk.

If the manufacturer has sometimes had trouble making large-scale cars, it has learned from its mistakes, say several specialists.

After quickly setting up a factory in China, Tesla began building new sites near Berlin and Texas.

At the same time, under the guidance of its charismatic boss, Tesla continues to operate "almost like a start-up", underlines Garrett Nelson, analyst at CFRA: the company does not have to manage a union or multiple sites. production and the decision scale is simple, which avoids cumbersome and saves time.

"Given the company's success, there is no reason Elon Musk cannot continue to run his business as he sees fit and stand up to outside forces," said Brauer.

After a bitter battle with the California authorities who had forced the Tesla plant to close in the spring, Mr. Musk for example obtained in November that his employees there are regarded as essential workers.

Tesla is also well positioned in several key segments of the automotive sector.

With a pick-up (flatbed van) and a semi-trailer under development, the group is making its mark on the electric transport vehicle market.

Thanks to its new factory in Shanghai, Tesla is well established in China, which according to the firm Deloitte could represent 49% of the electric vehicle market in 2030.

- Promises -

The manufacturer is also making progress in autonomous driving: its new autonomous driving system presented in the fall "still has a few flaws, such as having difficulty in recognizing work areas, but they are getting closer to the goal", judge Mr. Nelson.

Elon Musk also continues to make promises.

Tesla has notably committed to offering an electric vehicle at $ 25,000 within three years and to produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.

The United States currently costs at least $ 37,990 for the cheapest model from the manufacturer, which must also convince consumers.

According to the International Energy Agency, electric cars only accounted for 2.6% of global sales and 1% of the fleet in 2019.

But the potential is there according to Deloitte, which predicts that sales of electric vehicles will increase from 2.5 million in 2020, to 11.2 million in 2025 and 31.1 million in 2030, which would then represent 32% of the market.

Tesla will, however, quickly have to face real competition, with the rise of young shoots, such as Lucid or Rivian and traditional manufacturers who have recently accelerated their investments in the electric vehicle segment.

The future of the group is also strongly linked to Mr. Musk, who has every interest in maintaining its success since it still owns nearly 18% but is also monopolized by his other companies, in particular the SpaceX rockets.

But its performance in 2020 is far from justifying its meteoric rise in the stock market, according to experts at JPMorgan: its stock, they anticipate, should be worth $ 105 at the end of 2021, against $ 705 at the end of 2020.

© 2021 AFP