The British Middle East Eye website quoted Iraqi political, paramilitary and security sources as saying that the Iranian authorities in charge of Iraq have begun to review all the plans of the late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, for Iraq.
He indicated
in a lengthy report
that no one previously dared to admit that there were negatives in Soleimani's plans, but after his death, everyone started talking about the negatives.
The British website quoted an Iraqi politician close to Iranian intelligence as saying that the change has already started months ago, adding that it is widely believed that this change will soon be reflected in Iraqi politics and security, and that it is now tangible on the ground, especially among the armed factions.
Restructuring
The site stated that the reform that Iran is undertaking is comprehensive and focuses on restructuring its "Iraqi paramilitary forces," and if it succeeds in that, a "two-headed dragon" will appear.
He pointed out the big difference between Soleimani and Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, who succeeded him. Soleimani used to move between them easily, and he knew each commander and his subordinates personally. As for Qaani, he does not have these qualities and seems not interested in them.
He added that the difference between Soleimani and Qani is important, as Iran has not yet been able to fill the void left by the general and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the spiritual father of most Iraqi armed factions who was killed alongside Soleimani, noting that saying that the Shiite leaders in Iraq are frustrated with the man who replaced Soleimani is downplaying their reaction, "They were shocked."
Other reasons to change
In addition to Soleimani's absence, low oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic forced Iran, which is subject to US sanctions, to "review" its foreign policy in the region and "accelerate" its plans to change course in Iraq in particular.
The goal now, according to "Middle East Eye", is to try new approaches and rearrange the situation inside Iraq to reduce losses, as they see that they have exploited Iraq to a great extent and relied on old allies who have exhausted its resources and caused Iran to lose its Shiite popular base.
Middle East Eye: The Iranian plan may include the dismantling of some armed factions (Al-Jazeera)
"The idea is to change the vision according to which the US-Iranian conflict is managed inside Iraq to keep pace with recent developments locally and regionally," the site quoted an advisor to the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, as saying.
According to the site, Iran is evaluating 3 factors: the upcoming administration of US President-elect Joe Biden, the separation of armed factions loyal to Ayatollah Sistani from the paramilitary Popular Mobilization Group, and the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq.
Less losses
The site quoted Al-Kazemi’s advisor as saying that the idea is no longer about the identity of the winner or loser in this conflict, but rather how to survive these conflicts with the least possible losses, and that Iran cannot accept the loss of Iraq as a whole, and it cannot risk compromising its major national interests. Some concessions and retreating from several steps seem a typical reaction for Iran at the current stage.
Among the changes indicated by the site is that Iran is organizing its assets in Iraq and retreating from the front line position it has occupied in Iraqi affairs to this day, and from the Iranian point of view, politics should take center stage now, not weapons.
According to the site, for many in Baghdad, the messages and actions emanating from Iran and its allies in Iraq are muddled and reflect a conflict between the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian intelligence, but all Iraqi leaders agree that Tehran's vision of Iraq has changed radically.
Some Iraqi leaders believe that Iranian intelligence is urging the armed factions to exercise restraint, while the Quds Force secretly encourages them to attack American assets, for example.
3 axes
Politicians and leaders in the Iranian-backed armed factions told the British website that the Iranian vision is based on 3 axes: dismantling and dissolving some armed factions, or what they call "removing outcrops", supporting and strengthening the Iraqi government, finding alternative funding sources for its allies inside Iraq and protecting them with recognized political formations. Legally.
The proposed alternative is an acceptable government that has some authority but accepts the presence of a two-headed militia, and the pro-Iran PMF may be one of them, so its rearrangement has become very important at this time.
The site quotes Iraqi leaders as saying that Tehran's new plan proposes keeping the larger armed factions on condition that they be cleaned and "the outgrowths removed", and the smaller factions are completely dissolved.
Two-headed dragon
Consequently, the result will be two forces: the first is the strength of the Popular Mobilization Forces and the second is the strength of the resistance, as a "dragon with two heads", as Middle East Eye attributed to another advisor to Al-Kazemi.
The site indicated that this proposal may be acceptable regionally and internationally, as there will be great opportunities to gradually restore the state's control over the first force, while it works in cooperation with Iran to keep the latter away from the Iraqi arena.
And he continued to say that everything would depend on what would emerge from the Iranian-American negotiations.
If the Iranians return to the nuclear deal, Iran will retain the main factions while accepting the participation of the Iraqi government in controlling it, and all fighters and other factions will be abandoned and left at the mercy of the Iraqi government and Washington.
It is for this reason that Tehran issued strict instructions to its allies in Iraq to stop any attacks on US interests in the country, which Iranians fear will push the outgoing President Donald Trump to incite war before leaving the Oval Office.