display

Kiel (dpa) - Because of the corona pandemic, economist Gabriel Felbermayr believes that around 600,000 jobs will be lost in Germany.

The hardest hit areas are areas that have already been subject to structural change, such as the aviation and tourism industries, said the head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy of the German Press Agency.

“In a decarbonised world, aviation would have to shrink anyway.

A lot is anticipated by Corona and it is sustainable. "

The economist sees lasting consequences in tourism, which is important for Schleswig-Holstein and other coastal states.

"Not everything will be all right there either," said Felbermayr.

"In private tourism, the rebound will be very clear: people want to go to the coasts and into the mountains."

However, there is a clear structural change in business tourism.

"There will be fewer flights and less congress tourism."

This applies especially to city hotels.

Instead, online communication is becoming more important.

"The pandemic will change the retail sector in the long term," said Felbermayr.

In the course of digitization, some sections of the population bought online for the first time.

They are currently seeing that credit card payments do not necessarily end in fraud and that goods arrive undamaged.

“Some of these reservations will likely go away.

For the retail trade in city centers and in shopping centers, the crisis is not over even if the infection actually allows a return to the city center. "

display

With a view to the aid announced by politicians, Felbermayr said that replacing the loss in sales might be suitable for the catering industry.

“But if you replace sales in retail, there is a risk of massive overcompensation.

Because retailers won't even buy goods that they can't sell in lockdown. "

The aid is too generous for these companies, at least in the long term.

"When the state helps companies, it is as fair as possible."

The Kiel Institute expects the gross domestic product to increase by 3.1 percent this year.

"If the pandemic subsides in the summer, the economy will reach the pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of next year," said Felbermayr.

The normalization of the employment level is expected a little later.

IfW on the corona pandemic