Four major challenges still need to be addressed
Britain’s “Brexit” is not over yet (Global Hotspot)
On December 9, 2020, demonstrators stood outside the Houses of Parliament in London, England, holding placards "Against Brexit".
Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Han Yan
After many delays and setbacks, the UK and the EU finally reached an agreement on future relations at the end of 2020.
According to Bloomberg News, on December 30, 2020, the House of Commons of the British Parliament passed the "Brexit" trade agreement reached by Britain and Europe with 521 votes in favor and 73 votes against.
According to the BBC report, British Prime Minister Johnson stated on social media that the agreement will bring certainty to the UK's business, tourism, and investment and trade after January 1, 2021.
When the UK struggles to cross the end of the "Brexit" marathon, will certainty come?
There is no lack of worries in public opinion.
Where the UK will go next is still a proposition to be solved.
"Imperfect" agreement
In the last few days of 2020, the UK is rapidly advancing the "Brexit" process, and some British media said it was "inevitable."
According to the British "Guardian" report, the agreement reached between the UK and Europe is 2,000 pages long, covering all aspects of EU-UK trade in goods and services, investment, competition, taxation, transportation, energy, and fisheries.
"We have regained control of our funds, borders, laws, trade and fishing waters. This agreement is fantastic news for families and businesses across the UK." Johnson said confidently in the UK. Get all the benefits you want.
Johnson's statement is more like a relief.
For the British society under the shadow of the epidemic, the high economic and social costs brought about by a no-deal "Brexit" are unbearable, but a "Brexit" with an agreement is not perfect, and some key issues are still pending.
In the fisheries field where the two sides have always had serious differences, the UK and EU agreed that within 5 and a half years after the end of the UK's "Brexit" transition period, EU fishermen can still catch seafood in British waters under current quotas, with a value of 650 million per year EUR.
But after five and a half years, this quota will be reduced by 25%.
This is regarded by the British industry as a "huge concession" because the first condition that the UK offered was a 60% reduction in 3 years.
According to the agreement, the two sides will negotiate on fishing once a year after 2026.
Some analysts pointed out that the United Kingdom is currently the world’s largest net exporter of financial services, with over 40% of exports going to the European Union. The agreement involves very little financial services as one of the pillar industries in the United Kingdom, which may cause significant impact on the UK financial industry. Shock.
Rajneesh Narula, an international business relations expert at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said that the UK must negotiate with the EU on all matters related to financial services, including banking, finance, insurance and telecommunications.
It is reported that the British government has scored 65 key issues involved in the negotiations on the Brexit agreement.
The results showed that the British government won 28 and the European Union won 11. The two sides compromised on 26 issues.
Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, analyzed in an interview with our reporter that the final agreement reached by the UK and Europe is a complex mechanism that balances each other and interlocks constraints, and is the result of compromise between the two sides.
The agreement seems to have an overall framework and principles, but issues in different fields are relatively independent and have their own set of rules.
"In some key areas, the two sides have temporarily reached a so-called'gentleman agreement'. Some disputes have not been completely resolved, but have been temporarily controlled and reserved for subsequent negotiations."
"Sequelae" cannot be ignored
While the British government cheered for the "Brexit" agreement, Scotland once again chanted "independence" recently.
According to the German Le Monde, the Chief Minister of the Scottish Government and the leader of the Scottish National Party, Sturgeon stated on social media that there is no agreement to make up for the loss of Britain’s “Brexit” to Scotland. “It’s time to plan for us as a The future of independent European countries is now".
Analysts said that Scotland is quite dissatisfied with the relevant content of the Anglo-Europe Agreement involving agriculture and fisheries, which will further intensify the independence of Scotland to a certain extent. This is a prominent problem in the sequelae of Britain's "Brexit".
In the field of trade, some international investors have also expressed their concerns—the smoothness of trade between Britain and Europe is not the same as the British remaining in the EU single market. Greater trade barriers will further reduce Britain’s ability to become a trans-European supply. The attraction of chain participants.
The European Commission pointed out in a note that although a no-deal "Brexit" is avoided, companies will still pay a high price for "Brexit". For example, exporters will face additional border checks and paperwork.
According to the UK Government’s Office of Budget Responsibility, the UK’s economy will shrink by 4% in 15 years compared to staying in the EU after an agreement is reached.
In the automotive industry, some analysts believe that even if Britain and Europe reach a "Brexit" trade agreement, it may still bring losses to automakers.
Some automakers, including Nissan, may not be eligible for duty-free export of some models assembled in the UK to the EU.
David Bailey, a professor of business economics at the Birmingham Business School, said that compared with the significant impact and costs that the auto industry will face, the "Brexit" agreement reached is "insignificant", and the degree of flexibility in the policy implementation process also needs to be examined.
Cui Hongjian believes that after the "Brexit" agreement is reached, the UK will face at least four major challenges in the future:
One is the implementation and implementation of the agreement.
Despite the so-called "win-win arrangement", all parties have no idea about the specific direction of the trade between Britain and Europe.
The second is domestic political issues.
Once the Scottish independence trend continues, the centrifugal tendency in Northern Ireland, Wales and other regions may increase, and the unity and sovereignty of the United Kingdom will be challenged.
Third, the issue of changes in the international situation.
Compared with the time when the UK held the "Brexit" referendum in 2016, the current international situation has undergone drastic changes.
Britain’s foreign security policy in recent years has served the grand strategy of “Brexit”, which lacks long-term and strategic nature to a certain extent.
After that, whether the United Kingdom can clearly define its own position and come up with policies that truly conform to British interests and world trends will test the British government's ability and wisdom.
Fourth, the issue of economic recovery.
An agreement to "Brexit" prevented the British economy from worsening, but the British economic recovery still faces challenges.
At present, the UK's fiscal deficit has risen sharply, and the shift in trade and investment after Brexit will take some time to cushion.
Realizing "Global Britain" is not easy
After the "Brexit" referendum four years ago, the United Kingdom put forward the "Global Britain" proposal and is committed to building a globalized country that is outward-looking, inclusive and supports free trade.
At present, facing the severe pressure of the epidemic and economic recession, how far is the UK, which wants to break up with the European Union, to this goal?
According to Johnson, "From January 2021, we will be completely politically and economically free." According to Peter Kellner, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie European Center, the relationship between the UK and the European continent is complicated and perfect. The "Brexit" agreement may also be difficult to straighten out the relationship between them.
"On the road from ally to partner, the two sides have a lot to adjust and adapt. From this perspective, now is not the end of'Brexit', but the real beginning."
For some time, bilateral trade negotiations have become one of the key elements of the UK's international strategy.
After the "Brexit" agreement is reached, the United Kingdom should further advance the pace of bilateral trade negotiations.
Currently, the UK is actively negotiating post-Brexit trade agreements with major trading partners such as the United States, Australia, and New Zealand, but progress is relatively slow.
In October 2020, the United Kingdom and Japan formally signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which was the first major trade agreement signed by the United Kingdom after Brexit.
However, the trade volume between Britain and Japan only accounts for 2% of Britain's foreign trade. The symbolic significance of this agreement far exceeds the actual benefits.
In November 2020, the UK and Canada reached a continuation trade agreement to ensure that the trade relationship between the two countries remains stable after the UK's "Brexit" transition period ends. The two countries also agreed to start negotiations on a new trade agreement from 2021.
Cui Hongjian pointed out that after Britain leaves the European Union, the concept of “Global Britain” faces greater risks to a certain extent.
On the one hand, as a single sovereign country, Britain's influence in participating in regional diplomatic and security affairs and economic and trade affairs is diminishing, and it does not have the strength to participate in competition among major powers in the short term.
On the other hand, public opinion in the United Kingdom is worried that after leaving the European Union, the United Kingdom may further rely on the United States, strengthen US-UK coordination, and "hand over the sovereignty brought back from Brussels to Washington."
In this case, the goal of "Global Britain" will be out of the question.
"These are two major tests for the UK. Whether the'Global Britain' can be realized is still unknown."
Li Jiabao