It seems that relying on the month of holidays as a last opportunity will not yield the desired results in Lebanon to compensate for the losses resulting from the 2020 collapses.
In this small country that has always relied on the tourism and services sector as a way to revive its fragile economy, a series of events that began with the outbreak of the protests on October 17, 2019, followed by the outbreak of the Corona virus, political and security tensions, and a currency collapse accompanied by a severe banking crisis, then The Beirut Port bombing last August 4, which dashed hopes of revival.
In previous years, the Lebanese had been waiting for December to achieve prosperity and profits by moving the economic wheel and reviving social life, specifically on Christmas and New Year's celebrations, in which inbound and domestic tourism was active.
But the reality of the tourism sector has turned upside down, which was reflected in the shrinking of the holidays in Beirut and its surroundings, as the last components of Lebanon's steadfastness (i.e. tourism) were shaken, according to what the figures presented by Al-Jazeera Net show.
Regression path
The Secretary-General of Tourist Trade Unions, Jean Perote, starts from the changes that occurred in the tourism sector's revenues to national income.
Until 2010, the annual tourism income was not less than 10 billion dollars, and the sector's revenues during the end-of-year holidays alone were estimated between 700 and 800 million dollars.
One of the closed hotels in downtown Beirut (Al-Jazeera)
With the beginning of the deterioration of the situation at the end of 2019, the revenues of the tourism sector did not exceed 6 billion dollars, according to Beiruti, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, and the revenues of the sector by the end of 2020 will not exceed half a billion dollars.
In the month of the 2019 holidays, tourism revenues declined by about 55%, not exceeding 320 million dollars, and the decline continued until December 2020, and tourism revenues will not exceed 100 million dollars.
At the level of air navigation, at least 300,000 tourists visited Lebanon during the holiday month, ranging from foreign and Arab expatriates to Lebanese expatriates spending the holidays with their families.
But this year’s reservations reveal that the number of arrivals in recent weeks ranges from only 30,000 to a maximum of 50,000 tourists, according to Beiruti.
Al-Naqeeb considers that domestic tourism will not compensate for the losses of incoming tourism, because during the holidays the Lebanese go to villages and peripheries, at a time Beirut suffered great damage, as a result of the explosion of the port, which killed about two thousand tourist institutions in the capital, and more than 10% of them have not yet worked, as a result of problems. The list between the owners of institutions and insurance companies that have not committed themselves to compensate the total losses.
This sharp decline in the level of tourism is confirmed by the hotel captain, Pierre Ashkar, who revealed that the operating percentage of hotels during the month of the holidays of 2020 did not exceed 10%, after it was in 2019 about 27%, and in the most stable years, hotel reservations covered more than 85% of their capacity. Absorptive.
Lebanon includes about 560 hotels, not all of them operating, after about 163 hotels in and around Beirut were damaged, and the top 10 hotels are still out of service.
Al-Ashkar points out, in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, that Lebanon has become one of the cheapest countries in the world, with dollar trading exceeding the threshold of 8200 pounds after it was 1507 pounds.
However, the matter was not encouraging Arabs and foreigners, especially since the Corona virus disrupted navigation and closed a large number of airports.
The Lebanese wander the streets of Beirut (Al-Jazeera)
The hotel captain points out that the backbone of each tourist season was dependent on the people of the Arab Gulf, but the political tensions between Lebanon and the Gulf led to most of these countries warning of the influx of their nationals to Lebanon, and Lebanon's focus was previously on the Gulf tourist who booked hotels between 10 and 15 days a The month of holidays, leading to the advancement of the sector.
It is estimated that the tourism sector employed about 150,000 workers officially registered with Social Security, and the summer and holiday season, in addition to about 35,000 workers.
However, with the beginning of the October 2019 movement until the end of 2020, about 80,000 workers completely lost their jobs in the sector, and the rest decreased their low salaries and worked part-shift, according to Ashkar as well.
Consumption crisis
In the same context, Tony Al-Rami, head of the Syndicate of Restaurant, Café and Cabaret Owners, believes that the reality of restaurants of all kinds also reflects the decline of inbound and domestic tourism.
Lebanon, which had about 8,500 restaurants on its various lands, only 4,500 restaurants remained for 3 years, and most of them were damaged this year, after the port explosion destroyed hundreds of restaurants and cafes in Beirut alone, according to the head of the Restaurants and Cabarets Syndicate.
Al-Rami said that the demand for restaurants during the holidays is very shy compared to the years in which it achieved annually at least $ 9 billion, of which 25% was in December only, and this year, the sector’s income decreased to less than a quarter due to Corona and the deteriorating economic conditions. And political and security forces, and restaurants will not compensate for their losses this season "even with an oxygen dose."
In fact, the large fluctuations in commodity prices seem to have negatively affected, especially on domestic tourism, after the Lebanese lost about 85% of their purchasing power, and became unable to practice their usual rituals on holidays, at the level of food tables, gifts, clothes, and various types of consumption, the cost of which has become exorbitant. The price.
Based on this reality, Zuhair Berro, president of the Consumer Protection Association, considers that holidays have become a detail in Lebanon, because people's concerns and problems are elsewhere with the cost of consumption rising on a daily basis.
Beirut markets are empty during the day, the month of holidays (Al-Jazeera)
Locally, the prices of basic goods and services increased by about 220%, based on the household consumption price index that the association conducts every 3 months on 145 goods and monthly services that include food, communications, fuel and medicine.
As for commodities imported in dollars, which are subject to fluctuations in the black market exchange rate, they increased by 600%, which means that the general rate of price increase reached 410% by the end of 2020, according to what Pro told Al-Jazeera Net.
The president of the association believes that a small group of Lebanese can celebrate the holidays, including expatriates who hold dollars or residents who receive their salaries in dollars, as these have benefited to a certain extent from the crisis, as he put it.
Prices have fallen in their favor by 50%, but they do not make up more than 5% of society, while more than 95% of them earn their salaries exclusively in pounds.
Stability first
Economically, the journalist specializing in economic affairs, Azza Hajj Hassan, believes in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net that the main factor for the recovery of tourism is "stability first."
It considers that the holiday season cannot compensate for the losses of the tourism sector because Lebanon is losing stability.
Before the sector deteriorated to the bottom in 2020, tourism began to gradually decline from 2011, as a result of being affected by the Syrian crisis and its security, political and economic repercussions, and this coincided with the displacement - which formed a great pressure on the various productive sectors - with the accumulation of indebtedness and the country falling into a large deficit that led to a loss of confidence of the two communities. Arab and international.
However, reliance on the tourism sector continued, according to the journalist in economic affairs, because it constitutes about 20% of the GDP, which is a huge percentage in a country like Lebanon, whose total domestic production did not exceed the years of stability, 55 billion dollars annually.
Therefore, the economic journalist considers that the tourism sector is the one that secures the operation of most other sectors, and if its decline in this frightening way will have tragic consequences later on the operating sectors.