Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 28 -

Title: 2020 Taiwan's economy: DPP "The Secret"

　　Xinhua News Agency reporter Cha Wenye, Huang Yang and Deng Qianqian

　　People have many question marks when looking at Taiwan's economy in 2020.

The annual economic growth rate is slightly higher than expected. Has Taiwan broken through the "stupid economy"?

In Taiwan's economic performance, what are the "secrets that the DPP authorities cannot tell"?

The DPP authorities advocated "pro-US and far China", can it be realized in the economic field?

In the trend of regional economic cooperation, where are the DPP authorities taking Taiwan?

Has Taiwan broke through its "boring economy"?

　　Taiwan’s administrative agency revised the forecast of Taiwan’s 2020 economic growth rate from 1.56% to 2.54% in November.

The DPP authorities are "difficult to conceal their joy" with this data, but what the media on the island sees is the hidden worry behind the data-the "boring economy" remains the same.

　　From the perspective of the troika driving economic growth, the reason for the upward revision of the growth rate is not the substantial increase in investment or consumption, but the export exceeding expectations.

In the first 10 months of this year, Taiwan’s exports grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, which strongly boosted overall economic growth.

　　Tang Yonghong, deputy director of the Taiwan Studies Center at Xiamen University, pointed out that the global economy has been hit hard by the epidemic this year, and Taiwan cannot stay out of it.

However, due to the deep connection between the supply chain structure of Taiwan's various industries and the mainland, the mainland's rapid economic recovery has a positive impact on it, offsetting the negative impact brought by other economies.

　　Taiwan's industrial development is unbalanced, and its high economic growth is mainly due to the information and electronics industry.

If the two categories of information and audio-visual products, and electronic components are excluded from revaluation, the annual growth rate of Taiwan’s exports in the first 10 months of this year will fall to minus 10.1%, indicating that most industries are facing a decline in exports.

In other words, traditional industries are still in a severe winter.

　　"Under the epidemic, the'home economy' grew against the trend, and the information and electronics industry thrived." Tang Yonghong pointed out that the unbalanced industrial structure has led to serious uneven distribution of economic results.

The information and electronics industry has made a lot of money, while the tourism industry has been hit, and the output value of traditional manufacturing has fallen.

Employees in most industries do not feel the benefits of economic growth, lack the sense of gain, and feel strong pain.

　　A student who worked and studied in Taichung told the media that although hourly wages have risen four consecutive times, it does not feel at all to the migrant workers because prices have risen sharply after "one case and one rest", and meals are expensive, and they earn money. After the rent and living expenses are deducted, there is not much money left.

　　The deep-seated problem is unresolved, and the DPP authorities also "spread money" for the election, causing "debt to keep offspring."

According to economists, Taiwan’s outstanding debt balance will reach 6.1 trillion Taiwan dollars in 2021, and its per capita debt will be 260,000 Taiwan dollars, about 20 times that of 30 years ago.

"Secrets that cannot be said" by the DPP authorities

　　The DPP authorities tried to weaken economic ties with the mainland since they came to power, and this year they even used the epidemic to obstruct cross-strait personnel exchanges and restrict exchanges and cooperation.

However, statistics from both the mainland and Taiwan show that the volume of cross-strait trade has not decreased but increased over the past year, and economic and trade ties have become closer.

　　According to Taiwan’s statistics, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland (including Hong Kong) in the first 11 months of this year were approximately US$136.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, accounting for 43.8% of Taiwan’s total exports during the same period, a record high.

The mainland continues to be Taiwan's largest export market and source of the largest surplus.

　　According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the mainland imported US$181.71 billion from Taiwan in the first 11 months of this year, accounting for 9.8% of the mainland’s total imports during the same period. Taiwan’s trade surplus from the mainland was US$127.73 billion.

Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, pointed out that without the mainland, Taiwan will have a huge trade deficit in foreign trade, and it will be difficult for the economy to maintain positive growth this year.

　　Some media have pointed out that the main contributor to Taiwan’s economic growth actually comes from exports to the mainland.

This has become an "unspeakable secret" of the DPP authorities.

In the face of doubts, the Taiwan Mainland Affairs Commission wanted to cover it up, but argued that the mainland was dependent on Taiwan.

　　Tang Yonghong pointed out that Taiwan's endowment of factor resources determines that its economic development must be closely linked with the mainland.

The economic ties between the two sides of the strait are formed based on the globalization of the market economy and the comparative advantages of the division of labor between the two sides of the strait. They have a solid foundation and cannot be easily changed, let alone "decoupling."

"Taiwan independence" politicians clamor for "decoupling," which will cause Taiwan's economy to become unbearable.

　　Despite various unfavorable factors, Taiwanese businessmen's investment in the mainland has maintained a growth trend this year.

According to Taiwanese statistics, from January to November, there were a total of 445 approved investments in the mainland, with approved investment (increase) of US$5.6 billion, an increase of 50.4% year-on-year, and a 71% year-on-year increase in November.

　　"Numbers speak for everything and once again prove the importance of the mainland market to Taiwan's economy." Zhangzhou Taiwanese businessman Lin Boyan said that the mainland continues to deepen the development of cross-strait integration and attaches great importance to the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G and the Internet of Things. Taiwanese enterprises participate in the creation of intelligent manufacturing. The "Common Market" is at the right time.

"The problem is that every basket does not have your eggs"

　　In November 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) was signed, and the world’s largest free trade zone was born. Taiwan is not among them.

　　The media on the island believed that the DPP authorities refused to recognize the "92 Consensus", cross-strait relations continued to deteriorate, and the authorities deliberately "linked the US and China" economically, which prevented Taiwan from joining RCEP.

　　Tsai Ing-wen responded: "We can't put all our eggs in the same basket as we used to." Netizens on the island issued a "question of soul" in their comments: "The problem is that there is no you in every basket."

　　Not only RCEP, but also CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement), Taiwan cannot join in the freezing situation of cross-strait relations.

The DPP authorities have strongly promoted the "new southward policy" intended to "go to China" for more than four years. The trade volume between Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries has not increased significantly, and this year has even seen a significant decline.

Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN accounted for 19% in 2013 and fell to 15.4% in the first 10 months of this year.

　　Tang Yonghong pointed out that Taiwan will face the impact of competitive products from tariff-free imports and exports among RCEP members, and will be "marginalized" in both trade and investment.

The simulation forecast of the Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that by 2030, failure to join RCEP will reduce Taiwan’s exports by US$8 billion and real income by US$3 billion.

A Taiwan scholar said frankly that "Taiwan's economy will lose 20 years."

　　"The way out for Taiwan’s economy is to maintain cross-strait peace and seek common economic development. We do not have the capital to split and should be more closely integrated." Wu Jiaying, chairman of the Xiamen Taiwanese Business Association, who has been working on the mainland for 20 years, said that the creation of a common market across the strait will be In the world's most potential big market, the two sides complement each other's advantages and jointly revitalize the Chinese nation's economy. Such a future is worth looking forward to.

　　High-quality development, new development patterns, new infrastructure, green and low-carbon development, digital economy... Taiwanese enterprises in mainland China and Taiwan compatriots who have landed in the dream are now concerned about the new and major issues of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

　　Sheng Jiuyuan, director of the Taiwan Studies Center of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed and pointed out that the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal for Taiwan-related content reflects that the mainland relies on the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the strait, and has boosted the confidence of Taiwanese compatriots and enterprises with clear signals.

Deepening cross-strait cooperation can enable Taiwanese businessmen and enterprises to better share the development opportunities in the mainland, and provide Taiwanese industries with a larger and better platform and conditions for exploring the global market.

The Chinese on both sides of the strait have no reason not to work together to create a better future.