Looking back on the international military struggle and security situation in 2020
【Year-End Special】
With the new crown pneumonia epidemic that is raging around the world and the conflicts that have broken out, 2020 is about to pass.
Looking back at this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread globally, competition among major powers continued to wrestle, the world structure accelerated adjustment, regional hotspots one after another, and global security risks rose concurrently.
This is a year of accelerated collapse of the old order, and a year of twists and turns in the brewing of a new pattern. It is the starting point for the international military struggle and security situation to enter deep turbulent changes.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic accelerates the evolution of the world pattern
The law of history shows that the evolution of the international system has never progressed linearly, and the rise and fall of the power of great powers is not a linear change, but a process of accumulation, emergence, burst, rise, and reconstruction between quantitative and qualitative changes.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic throughout the year once again demonstrated the nonlinear logic of the evolution of human society and the world pattern, and accelerated the original development rhythm.
2020 is the year when the new crown pneumonia epidemic is raging.
This year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread globally, with cases in more than 180 countries and regions, with nearly 80 million infections and more than 1.6 million deaths.
Although many vaccines were put into use at the end of the year, the epidemic will not disappear instantly and will continue for a period of time.
At present, the impact of the epidemic extends far beyond the field of public health, covering all areas of human life and production, affecting human life, economic development, political stability, the survival of the regime, party elections, and resource utilization.
Because countries have different interests, different strategic plans, and different measures in the epidemic, there are also political, economic, military, technological, and cultural struggles and games.
The longer the epidemic lasts, the more intense the fight against the epidemic, the more intense the struggle around the epidemic, and the trend of multi-domain linkage, mutual transmission, and global expansion, with various uncertain factors and risks rising.
When the new crown pneumonia epidemic encounters major changes unseen in a century, the world pattern that is being adjusted has been significantly accelerated.
Historically, the adjustment of the world structure was often accompanied by large-scale wars and turmoil. The larger the scale and intensity of wars, the greater the reshaping of the world structure.
In addition to wars, historical epidemics and various crises have also weakened the foundations of many countries, and have repeatedly affected the direction of civilization.
The impact of this new crown pneumonia epidemic is similar to a war. Although it cannot fully shake the original world pattern, it is an important step in promoting the transformation of the world pattern.
With the development of the epidemic, major changes are taking place in the distribution of the power of major powers, the world's security and development situation, and the international struggle.
Major countries are racing to adjust their strategic layout
The reason why a big country has become a big country is that, in addition to its overall strength higher than most small and medium-sized countries, the important point is that it has a stronger strategic and enterprising nature.
When crises and turbulence come, they have the courage to respond, be brave to turn crises into opportunities, and be good at starting new situations in the changing situation.
In this sense, aggressiveness and active shaping are the necessary qualities of a big country, and passive conservatives will fall into the abyss of history.
2020 is a year of competition among major powers.
Facing the strategic environment of surge in uncertainty, major powers such as the United States and Russia have actively sought to gain the initiative.
The Trump administration of the United States regards China and Russia as strategic competitors. Under the guidance of the "America First" and "America First" policy, it has implemented the "All-Government Strategy for China", in accordance with the established "National Defense Strategy" and "Indo-Pacific Strategy". A series of strategic plans to accelerate the layout, and try to obstruct and suppress China.
The first is to strengthen illegal US-Taiwan cooperation and tighten the chains at the door of China.
In March, Trump signed the "Taipei Act", requiring the US government to strengthen or reduce economic, security, and diplomatic ties in accordance with other countries' relations with Taiwan.
In July, the U.S. Senate recommended in the "National Defense Authorization Act of 2021" that Taiwan be invited to participate in the "Pacific Rim Military Exercise" and the US medical ship docking in Taiwan.
The United States ignored the warnings from mainland China and passed arms sales to Taiwan six times in 2020, with a total value of as much as US$5.8 billion.
The second is to intensify military activities in the South China Sea region and tighten China's maritime gateway to the south.
In the first half of the year, US military aircraft carried out more than 2,000 activities in the South China Sea; in July, the US dual aircraft carrier formation held two exercises in the South China Sea.
These activities have shifted from approaching reconnaissance to provocative pressure and combat drills.
The third is to strengthen cooperation with allies and partners in an attempt to build an alliance to contain China.
In November, the United States, Japan, Australia and India held joint military exercises, and the nature is changing from so-called maritime security cooperation to multinational joint military operations.
The United States and its allies routinely monitor China's military activities in ocean-going regions, and strengthen its military presence around China and even the entire Indo-Pacific region.
On November 17, the US Secretary of the Navy called for the establishment of a "first fleet" close to the crossroads of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.
At the same time, the United States has accelerated the process of reducing and withdrawing troops from other regions. The US Department of Defense declared that "withdrawn troops are mainly used for the strategic competition of major powers to ensure that they maintain a strategic advantage in the competition of major powers."
While consolidating its regional influence, Russia has actively invested in areas of interest and has taken new steps during the turbulent period of the epidemic.
One is to decisively establish military bases in Africa.
In August, US media reported that Russia hopes to establish six military bases in Africa.
In November, Russia and Sudan signed an agreement to establish a military base in Sudan.
This is the first time that Russia has a military base in Africa after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It is an important step on the way to return to a major power in the world.
The second is to forcefully reverse the situation in Syria.
In 2020, Russia will continue to maintain a military presence in Syria, support the Bashar regime, contain the attempts of the United States, Israel, Turkey and other countries in Syria, and further strengthen its influence in the Middle East.
The third is to mediate the Naka conflict flexibly.
On November 9th, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia reached an agreement to stop military conflicts in the Naka region.
Being able to shape the direction of the situation in a complex situation shows that Russia's strategic management is brilliant and its influence once again adds points.
The fourth is to strengthen the military deployment of the Southern Kuril Islands (called the Four Northern Islands in Japan).
In December, Russia deployed the S-300V4 air defense missile system in the South Kuril Islands, paying close attention to the trend of the Northwest Pacific.
Countries such as Japan, India, Britain and France are also actively making arrangements.
Japan's strategic layout is based on stability and progress, seeking to expand its influence in the region and even the world.
In October, the new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga expressed his willingness to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam during his visit to Vietnam, and then the two countries signed an agreement on the transfer of defense equipment and technology.
In November, the Japanese government decided to extend the cruise time of a frigate and an early warning aircraft patrolling in the Middle East waters by one year.
India’s strategic layout focuses on regional conflicts and seeks military superiority over land borders and the Indian Ocean.
Since the beginning of this year, India has repeatedly increased its military activities in border areas and Kashmir regions, triggering military crises on many occasions, coupled with the impact of the domestic epidemic, this practice has pushed it into a situation of domestic and foreign difficulties.
The British strategic layout focuses on preserving international influence.
On November 19, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the strengthening of its defense policy, the establishment of a new national cyber force and space command, and plans to station the "Queen Elizabeth" aircraft carrier in the Asian region.
France focuses on European security cooperation, enhances regional defense capabilities, and strives to maintain its influence in other regions.
For example, in November, the French nuclear submarine "Emerald" and the support ship "Seine" docked at the US base in Guam.
Qualitative changes in the international security ecosystem
The frequency and intensity of the use of force by countries are important indicators to measure the international strategic situation.
In the more than 10 years since the end of the "Cold War", only the United States has been at war, and several small and medium-sized countries have been fought.
Beginning in 2008, Russia used force to fight back against Georgia.
After 2014, some regional powers also used force.
This year, not only the world and regional powers dared to use force, many small and medium-sized countries have also begun to use force, and the international security ecology is undergoing a qualitative change.
Shot because of a strong struggle to control territory.
One is the conflict between India and Pakistan.
India is a large regional country, but its style and measurement are small countries, and its speculative psychology is prominent. It has unrealistic illusions about the territory of the border area, which has triggered many crises.
In February 2019, the Indian Air Force crossed the line of actual control in Kashmir and attacked Pakistan.
Since the beginning of this year, India has continued to seek to strengthen the actual control of border areas, which has triggered several small-scale conflicts.
For example, in November and December, India and Pakistan broke out military conflicts in Kashmir several times, with dozens of casualties on both sides.
The second is the Naka conflict.
From September 27 to November 9, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in military conflicts in the Naka region, causing more than 4,000 deaths, more than 8,000 injuries, and tens of thousands of displaced persons.
Turkey and Russia pay close attention to the progress of the war. Turkey expressed support for Azerbaijan. Russia actively mediated and sent peacekeeping troops to the Naka region after the signing of the ceasefire agreement, which further strengthened its influence on regional affairs.
Domestic struggles and proxy wars continued.
The first is the Syrian conflict that has lasted for nearly 10 years.
Since Russia sent troops, the situation in Syria has developed in a stable direction, but Syria is in the four wars. The United States, Russia, Turkey, Iraq and other countries have been involved. This year, wars still occurred from time to time.
For example, on the evening of December 6, 2020, an armored personnel carrier of the Syrian army was destroyed by Turkish troops.
The second is the military conflict in Libya.
Since the Libyan armed forces in eastern Libya launched the battle for Tripoli in April 2019, the "National Army" has engaged in a confrontation with government forces, and signed a ceasefire agreement for the first time in October 2020.
The third is the Donbass conflict.
In Eastern Europe, the Donbass conflict has lasted for more than 6 years, and conflicts and casualties are still continuing.
For example, in March 2020, Ukraine’s rotating troops in the Donbass were attacked and 200 people were killed.
On April 2, the Operational Headquarters of the Joint Forces of Ukraine disclosed that more than 50 Russian soldiers died in Donbass in March.
The fourth is the conflict in Ethiopia.
On November 4, the Ethiopian "Tigray People's Liberation Front" armed forces launched a surprise attack on the Bundeswehr base in Tigray State, and the Bundeswehr subsequently carried out clearance attacks against it. The conflict lasted until the end of November, causing hundreds of thousands of people to be displaced.
"Assassination" blatantly.
In the past international struggles, assassinations have happened occasionally, and assassinations in 2020 have become an important means.
On January 3, the United States used human intelligence, drone surveillance, and strikes to kill the Iranian general Soleimani, opening the floodgates for assassination of strategic targets.
From July to September, unexplained attacks and fires occurred in many places in Iran.
On November 27, Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Fahrizad was killed in an attack near Tehran.
These events pushed the assassination to the forefront of strategy, turned the assassination into a blatant killing, and set a very bad precedent.
New changes in combat style
The change in combat styles stems from scientific and technological innovation and from the development of military struggle practices.
In recent years, a new round of technological revolutions, industrial revolutions, and military revolutions have developed rapidly. Scientific and technological breakthroughs represented by unmanned people and intelligence have emerged, providing technical support for changes in combat methods.
At the same time, strategic competition among big powers has intensified, military conflicts between small countries have broken out, and technology, demand, and practice have jointly promoted new changes in combat styles.
Unmanned systems are widely used in actual combat.
In the past, the US military used unmanned systems on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the Russian military used unmanned systems on the battlefields of Syria, but their functions and applications were limited.
This year’s Naka conflict showed that drones are not only widely adopted by major countries in the world, but also by small and medium-sized countries. Unmanned systems have become one of the main forces on the battlefield.
In the Naqqa conflict, the air forces of the two sides are small and old, making it difficult to carry out air combat in the traditional sense. The two sides used drones to seek advantages. The Nakka conflict became the first large-scale use of drones. Local war between man and machine.
The outstanding performance of the UAV, its high survivability, low cost, flexibility, and multiple mission capabilities highlight the development potential of the unmanned combat style.
Intelligent attacks on high-value strategic targets.
This style is concentrated in the two assassinations.
On January 3, the US army killed the Iranian general Soleimani.
The "MQ-9" UAV performing the attack mission flies at an altitude of several thousand meters. It is difficult for ground personnel to find it in an empty position, and it can be equipped with a variety of detection equipment, which can track and monitor the target for a long time, and choose the best time Launch an attack.
On November 27, Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Fahrizad was killed in an attack. The attack was completed by a remote-controlled machine gun mounted on a car.
This approach is a step further than the level when Soleimani was killed.
This kind of ground unmanned system has a simple structure and low profile, which can be camouflaged and concealed according to the environment, and it is difficult to find its ambush position with naked eyes and visible light detection methods.
Similar incidents show that the means of using unmanned systems to attack and kill strategic targets has become more mature, and the "Pandora's Box" has been opened.
Driven by the demand for warfare and artificial intelligence technology, unmanned combat systems such as unmanned aircraft, unmanned submarine vehicles, unmanned ships, and unmanned vehicles are showing an explosive growth trend. Unmanned swarm operations with intelligent features, man-machine hybrid Combat, cloud warfare, algorithm warfare, cognitive warfare and other combat style innovations are in full swing.
The director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center of the United States Department of Defense believes that "artificial intelligence is essential to accumulate basic combat advantages, and artificial intelligence is not information technology." The widespread use of artificial intelligence in actual combat is bringing revolutionary changes to war.
Speed up the development of new qualitative forces
Innovation ability is the core competitiveness of an army.
Against the background of increasingly fierce international struggles, all countries are strengthening military innovations and seeking breakthroughs in new fields and new methods.
Hypersonic means are showing a blowout trend.
In this regard, the Russian army takes the lead.
On November 26, Russia successfully completed the test fire of the "Zircon" hypersonic missile from the frigate "Marshal Gorshkov" and the nuclear submarine "Kazan".
On December 13, Russian Red Star TV broadcasted the "Pioneer" hypersonic intercontinental missile video for the first time. Putin once said that this type of missile can fly at 20 times the speed of sound, has gliding maneuverability, and can break through the US missile defense system.
The Russian military plans to equip a large number of new and old ships with "zircon" hypersonic missiles and mass-produce "pioneer" hypersonic missiles.
The U.S. military is accelerating test tests and promoting early installation.
On March 19, the US military successfully conducted a sea, land, and air "universal hypersonic glider" launch and flight test at the Pacific Weapon Proving Ground in Hawaii.
On August 8, the US military conducted an air-launched hypersonic missile AGM-183 airborne flight test. It is planned to become the first hypersonic weapon used by the US Air Force in actual combat in 2022.
In September, the United States Applied Science and Technology Research Organization completed the study of the "hypersonic production accelerator facility" program to promote the efficient mass production of hypersonic cruise missiles.
A breakthrough was made in the research and development of laser weapons.
The U.S. military has made great efforts to develop laser weapons. In 2020, several laser systems have been moved to the ship for testing.
For example, on May 22, the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet announced that the "Portland" amphibious dock transport ship conducted a 150-kilowatt ship-borne solid-state laser weapon test and successfully destroyed the UAV.
In order to install laser weapons, the USS "Ford" aircraft carrier added a large box-shaped "two-wing" structure to the stern.
The U.S. Navy plans to install new laser weapon systems on seven warships within three years. The U.S. Army and Space Forces are also developing laser weapons of different energy levels.
The nuclear power race continues to heat up.
In the context of intensified strategic competition among major powers, the role of nuclear power has become more prominent.
The United States has comprehensively strengthened its nuclear arsenal and has deployed low-yield nuclear weapons as soon as possible.
At the beginning of this year, the US military announced that it had deployed W76-2 low-yield submarine-launched missile nuclear warheads on the "Ohio"-class strategic nuclear submarines, marking a further reduction in the threshold for the use of US nuclear weapons.
Russia continues to strengthen its nuclear strategic capabilities.
After Russia's first special nuclear submarine equipped with the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned submarine, the "Belgorod" was commissioned, the "Khabarovsk" has also been launched, and the two new nuclear submarines can each carry 6 "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned submarine.
On December 12, the strategic nuclear submarine of the Russian Pacific Fleet launched four "Blava" submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles in succession, indicating that this type of missile has combat capabilities.
The militarization of space has accelerated.
Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. space development and space combat capabilities have significantly improved.
In August, the US Space Force issued its first top-level directive "Space Force."
In October, the Space Operations Command was established. Its main responsibility is to train space forces and promote the formation of combat readiness capabilities.
In November, the Space Force launched the first "Space Operations Planning Guide", which successively introduced new concepts such as orbital warfare, space cyber warfare, and space electromagnetic warfare, actively building a "star chain" and "war cloud" system, and the trend of integration of sky, net and electricity accelerate.
Other countries are also accelerating the advancement of space military capabilities.
In May, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force established the first space force "Space Combat Team".
In September, the French Air Force changed its name to the Aerospace Force, setting its sights on higher and farther space.
(Author: Zhang Xiaotian, the Department of National Defense University, the National Institute of Defense and military security strategy development director of the Department; Xu Zhidong, Zhang is not flat, the Department of National Defense University associate professor of National Security Institute)