Halle (dpa) - According to a current study, state measures actually ensure that there is no wave of bankruptcies, but they will not prevent it permanently.
The Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) announced on Thursday that significantly fewer companies are filing for bankruptcy than would have been expected after an economic slump like in spring.
Thanks to government aid, some companies should be able to adapt to the new developments and thus avoid bankruptcy, said IWH Vice President Oliver Holtemöller, according to the announcement.
"However, the exemptions and corporate aid will not completely stop the wave of insolvencies."
Based on long-term trends and seasonal developments from 2008 to 2019, the economists calculated what insolvency in Germany would have to look like without the corona crisis if it followed the usual patterns.
Between January and August there were 520 fewer bankruptcies than would have been expected.
"Compared to the forecast based on the development of previous years, the actual number of corporate bankruptcies is exceptionally low," said Holtemöller.
In addition, the researchers forecast what development would have been expected after the economic slump in the first corona lockdown in spring.
Result: A significant increase in insolvencies would be expected in the second half of the year, especially in industry, construction, retail, transport, hospitality and corporate service providers.
Instead, the IWH insolvency trend shows that there was hardly any increase between September and November.
The researchers explain the deviation from the forecast with the many aid programs of the state for affected industries as well as with the relaxed reporting requirements for insolvency and overindebtedness.
The latter relaxation will continue to apply to everyone until the end of the year.
These measures dampened the action.
After the exemptions expire, however, there should be more bankruptcies, it said.
Publication of the Institute for Economic Research on insolvencies in the Corona crisis
IWH insolvency trend