China News Agency, Berlin, December 14 (Reporter Peng Dawei) Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, a well-known German automotive economic expert who is known as the "godfather of automobiles," pointed out in his latest report that despite the fact that many places around the world The auto market is still not optimistic under the new crown epidemic, but China is expected to play a key role and play an "engine" role in the recovery of the global auto market in the post-epidemic period.
Dudenhof is the director and professor of the Automotive Research Center of Duisburg-Essen University in Germany. He has in-depth research on the development of the global automotive industry and is hailed as the "Godfather of Automobiles" by German media.
In the above-mentioned latest report entitled "Global Automotive Market in the Post-epidemic Era", Dudenhof and his team analyzed the gross domestic product (GDP) of the world's major economies from 2020 to 2022 in combination with OECD data. Trend.
He pointed out that the demand for automobiles in a country is related to its GDP growth rate.
The report further pointed out that the U.S. currently owns more than 800 cars per 1,000 people. Therefore, the U.S. auto market is mainly driven by the demand for replacement. In an "unsaturated market" such as China, there are only about 110 cars per 1,000 people. Automobiles, so when the Chinese economy achieves positive growth, the growth rate of automobile sales will correspondingly be much higher (than the saturated market).
The report analyzes the world's top 15 auto markets based on the forecast data of the latest economic outlook issued by the OECD in December this year.
Specifically, the report uses GDP in 2019 as the benchmark value of “100” before the outbreak, so as to compare the GDP trends of these 15 economies in 2020-2022.
Among them, China's GDP has the largest year-on-year growth rate among the above-mentioned countries, and will increase to 115.4 by 2022 (that is, 115.4% in 2019).
The report also compares the trend of auto sales in the world's top 15 auto markets from 2015 to the present, and predicts the development in the next two years.
The report pointed out that China is undoubtedly the "growth champion" in the auto markets of various countries.
It is estimated that by 2022, China's auto sales will return to the level of 2018; and after 2022, the growth of China's auto market will continue.
"This shows that the Chinese auto market will once again play its role as the engine of the global auto market in the next few years." Dudenhofer told China News Agency on the 14th that China will play a key role in the recovery of the global auto market in the post-epidemic period.
(Finish)