London (AFP)
Negotiations continue but the chances of a post-Brexit trade deal are dwindling, with London and Brussels showing their pessimism on Friday about the possibility of overcoming their differences.
Unless there is a major rebound between now and Sunday, a deadline set by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the exchanges on both sides of the Channel are likely to be carried out according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), synonymous with tariffs and quotas.
Traveling in the north of England, Boris Johnson deemed "very very likely" the failure of the negotiations, which are still continuing.
Despite the gloomy forecasts of economists, the head of the Conservative government says this solution would be "great for the UK and we could do exactly what we want from 1 January".
"We continue to hope," he continued, waiting to see a possible "big proposal" or "big change" from the European Union.
Same pessimism among Ursula von der Leyen, who told the leaders of the 27 summit in Brussels that the hopes of an agreement were "weak", told AFP several participants.
Berlin, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, and Dublin, on the front line on the Brexit front, tempered by judging that an agreement remains "possible".
Noting that "the prevailing state of mind" is that of a failure of negotiations, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin recalled that "similar" remarks had been made a year ago about the divorce agreement , finally concluded on the wire.
At the end of a dinner on Wednesday in Brussels to try to unblock the deadlock that has persisted for months, Mrs von der Leyen and Mr Johnson noted the extent of the differences that remain and gave themselves until Sunday to decide on the "future" of the talks.
These block on three subjects: fishing, the settlement of disputes in the future agreement and the guarantees demanded of London by the European Union in terms of competition.
On this last point, the thorniest, the Europeans wish to ensure convergence with the United Kingdom of their social, environmental, fiscal and public aid standards, to avoid any wild competition.
- "Stubborn geography" -
"It is normal that the competitors of our own companies are exposed to the same conditions in our own market", explained Mrs von der Leyen at a press conference.
The Europeans do not intend to force the United Kingdom to adapt to each of their legislative changes, she said.
The British, who officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, "would remain free, sovereign, to decide what they want to do. We would simply adapt the conditions of access to our market" according to their decision, a she explained.
London, for its part, claims that the EU's proposals do not respect its sovereignty.
Commenting on the calendar, a senior European official quipped: "This is at least the tenth time since September that we have been told that this is the decisive moment".
"The only certainty is January 1," the date on which the United Kingdom will have left the single market and the customs union, he stressed.
According to this source, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel each refused to speak separately with Boris Johnson before a telephone exchange last Monday between the Briton and Ursula von der Leyen.
"We speak with one voice," the official insisted.
"The geography is stubborn: we are still going to live side by side", for his part recalled Mr. Macron, wishing for an agreement "which preserves European interests (...) and respects our British friends".
However, the EU has already provided for emergency measures in the event of a "no deal".
They aim to maintain connectivity in road and air transport for six months, provided London does the same, and to ensure reciprocal access to the waters of both parties for fishing vessels in 2021.
According to the Times and the Guardian, four 80-meter Royal Navy ships will be ready to protect British waters from January 1 in the event of a "no deal".
© 2020 AFP