Regardless of the end, the UK will be on the road with a "Brexit sequelae"
The final "fight" seems to be an indispensable plot of the British "Brexit" drama.
A year ago, less than two months after the British legal "Brexit", Prime Minister Johnson pushed for an early election and led the Conservative Party to win the most seats since the Thatcher era. He led the "Brexit Agreement Act". Subsequently, it was passed by the British Parliament with a high number of votes, and Britain officially left the European Union on January 31 this year, entering an 11-month transition period.
A year later, similar plots seem to be repeating itself. The Anglo-European negotiations, which have been postponed due to the difficulty of bridging differences, finally showed a turning point when the transitional period was about to expire in three weeks. The turning point took place dramatically overnight.
On the evening of December 7th, local time, European Commission President Von der Lein and Johnson once again talked about negotiations on the future relationship between Europe and Britain. Then the two sides stated in a brief statement that due to the three key issues of level playing field, contract performance management and fishery There are still major differences, and the conditions for reaching an agreement "do not yet exist."
But on the next day (8th), European Commission Vice President Marosh Shevcovic and British Cabinet Office Secretary Michael Gove issued a statement in the name of the co-chair of the EU-UK Joint Commission. The "Brexit" agreement has reached "unanimity in principle", covering topics including border control, entry and exit inspections of animals, plants and derivatives, export declarations, trade in medicines and frozen meat products, etc., and clarified state subsidies under the framework of the "Brexit" agreement The scope of application.
The UK also promised to withdraw the disputed clauses in the Internal Market Act that violated the "Brexit" agreement, and the two sides agreed to still deal with the border inspections of Ireland and Northern Ireland and other related matters in accordance with the "Brexit" agreement.
Johnson himself also relented. When asked whether he would still work hard to reach an agreement to the last minute, Johnson gave the reply: "Of course it will." This is obviously different from his previous tough posture of "ready to leave the European Union without a deal". .
"In some negotiations, this situation is the norm." Wang Zhanpeng, director of the British Studies Center of Beijing Foreign Studies University, told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that from past experience, the EU is accustomed to "marathon" negotiations. For several years of trade negotiations, breakthroughs were achieved in the last one or two days or even the last night.
Those so-called "overnight negotiations" are more of a political posture. Both sides are very clear about each other's bottom line and bargaining chips. "The question is whether it is necessary to reach an agreement through concessions in the end."
The EU summit is about to be held on December 10. The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier, believes that this summit is the point where the EU and Britain can reach an agreement.
If the draft agreement appears on the table of the EU summit and is approved, it will also need to be reviewed by the European Parliament and EU member states.
Because of this, public opinion generally believes that if the two sides miss the time window of the EU summit, they may really start to prepare for a no-deal "Brexit".
On December 8, the Advanced Institute of Regional and Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University, the British Research Center of Beijing Foreign Studies University, the British Studies Branch of the Chinese European Society, and the Social Sciences Literature Press jointly released the "British Blue Book: British Development Report (2019-2020) ".
As a cross-yearly updated report, the "Blue Book" system sorts out the domestic and foreign affairs and economic and social issues during the transition period of Britain's "Brexit".
As the editor-in-chief of this book, Wang Zhanpeng told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that the core differences between Britain and Europe are actually old problems, and it will be difficult to completely resolve them in the next few days or the last two or three weeks. Many specific problems may be possible. It will take several years to gradually resolve.
Britain’s “Brexit” transition period ends on December 31 this year. There is little change in the outcome.
The "Blue Book" pointed out that July last year to July this year was the first year of the Johnson administration.
The smug Johnson declared at the beginning of this year that he would open a new chapter in British history and create an "extraordinary decade" in Britain.
However, it was during this year that Britain experienced unprecedented changes, domestic and foreign difficulties.
The dual impact of "Brexit" and the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused the UK to face all-round challenges in the past year, and also greatly reduced Johnson's ruling report card.
Time is getting tighter.
No matter how the British "Brexit" drama ends, the "Brexit" process itself and the new crown pneumonia epidemic have profoundly affected the direction of British politics.
The Conservative Party won an overwhelming victory in the December 2019 general election, which seemed to pave the way for breaking the "Brexit" deadlock; but the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not only disrupted the pace of negotiations between the Johnson administration and the EU on the future relationship , And because of its much criticized anti-epidemic strategy, the British public’s support and trust in the Conservative Party have dropped significantly.
The "Blue Book" emphatically mentioned that partisan political game is one of the key factors in the outcome of Britain's "Brexit". Does this judgment still apply?
Wang Zhanpeng analyzed that although the impact was not as obvious as before last year’s general election, partisan political games still have an impact on the "Brexit" process itself and on British politics in the "post-Brexit era".
For the ruling Conservative Party, how to deal with the challenges of the Labour Party and other opposition parties after “Brexit”, how to deal with the rise of local nationalism in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and how to solve the economic and social problems in the UK may all have to be faced. Game issues.
The unresolved issue of "Brexit" coupled with the severe impact of the epidemic, the dual challenges put the British economy under tremendous pressure.
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak said in a spending review report to Parliament in November that the British economy may shrink by 11.3% this year, which will be the worst economic recession in nearly 300 years.
The risk of "hard Brexit" still exists, and it has also led to some signs of withdrawal of foreign capital.
The financial industry, retail industry, tourism and other service industries, which are relatively high in the British economy, are expected to be difficult to recover effectively. The manufacturing industry may face a sharp decline in production capacity, which will lead to an increase in unemployment.
On the whole, subject to a series of internal and external factors, the British economy is unlikely to see any recovery in the short term.
Even after the epidemic is over, the economic impact, including the burden of public debt, will last longer.
Whether the UK-Europe trade agreement can be reached, whether the post-epidemic economic recovery plan can be implemented smoothly, and whether the financial market can stabilize and rebound are three important factors related to the medium and long-term development of the UK economy.
The situation is so severe that it is so important to reach a trade agreement between Britain and Europe.
But in Wang Zhanpeng's view, Johnson may not completely think so.
On the one hand, even if it ultimately has to "no agreement to leave the European Union", the United Kingdom can start other coordination work to "compensate the losses inside the embankment and outside the embankment"; on the other hand, at this time Johnson's governance is in a weak stage, and he himself is not willing to Make substantive concessions in the negotiations between Britain and Europe, so as not to give others the authority in the country.
Wang Zhanpeng believes that Johnson's pragmatic style will continue.
This is particularly evident when he deals with diplomatic issues.
This is also stated in the "Blue Book".
Although strengthening the special relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States is a key part of the blueprint for the realization of a "global Britain", Johnson himself and Trump have also formed a relatively good personal relationship, but the two still have many policy differences.
For example, on the issue of the Iran nuclear agreement, Johnson has fully implemented the "balance beam" tactics. On the one hand, he is open to the so-called "Trump plan" and believes that if the Iran nuclear agreement is invalid, the "Trump plan" is an alternative choice; He continued to coordinate with the leaders of France and Germany to form a united front to safeguard the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Britain’s handling of China issues such as Huawei’s 5G is in sharp contrast to the handling of the Iranian nuclear issue.
Repentance of previous promises and announcing the prohibition of Huawei from participating in the construction of 5G networks in the UK, and consistent actions with the United States on the traceability of the new crown virus, Hong Kong-related issues, and Xinjiang-related issues have also highlighted the more rigid China policy of the Johnson administration.
Wang Zhanpeng believes that the stacking of multiple problems fully exposed the eagerness, contradiction, and speculation of the Johnson administration in its foreign policy.
After the change of US government, the European Union will undoubtedly remain its most important Western ally. At that time, Britain will be in a more marginalized position after Brexit.
At this moment, the eyes of the world are focused on the talks between Johnson and Von der Lein in Brussels. "All-or-nothing" and "cliff negotiations" are words in many media titles.
The problem is that although there seems to be a turning point overnight, the possibility of a "no-deal Brexit" still exists; even if an agreement is successfully reached, the UK will inevitably have to return to the road with a "Brexit sequelae".
Our newspaper, Beijing, December 9th
China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily