A year ago, Paris hosted the first Normandy format summit since 2016.

It was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, French leader Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

As expected in the Kremlin, the outcome of the negotiations did not bring any breakthrough decisions on the Donbass issue.

Nevertheless, the Quartet came to the conclusion that there is no alternative to the Minsk agreements and agreed on several steps.

In particular, the parties agreed to make efforts to cease fire on the line of contact and disengagement of forces in the conflict zone in three additional areas, and also appealed to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) to facilitate the exchange of prisoners according to the “all for all” formula.

In addition, the summit participants stated the need to integrate into Ukrainian legislation the Steinmeier formula, which implies holding local elections in the uncontrolled territory of Donbass and the subsequent transfer of the region's border with Russia under the control of the Kiev authorities.

In a commentary on RT, Andrei Suzdaltsev, deputy dean of the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, noted that the implementation of the agreements reached in Paris could bring Ukraine closer to the implementation of the political part of Minsk-2, which would almost completely resolve the conflict.

“There were hopes that Zelensky would not remain in the paradigm of his predecessor.

In my opinion, he went to the summit to win.

True, now, I think, it is finally clear to everyone that on the wave of popular support after the elections, he hoped to reach agreements on Ukrainian terms and to make a hole in the “disadvantageous” Minsk agreements, "Suzdaltsev explained.

"I wanted to shift the responsibility to Russia"

The experts recalled that a number of positive events preceded the Paris summit.

After a confident victory in the elections over Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky said that he intends to end the conflict in the east of the country, and expressed his readiness to interact with his Russian counterpart.

On September 7 last year, Moscow and Kiev exchanged prisoners according to the "35 to 35" formula.

The Russian Federation has released Ukrainian sailors, director Oleg Sentsov and other convicts, detained at the end of 2018 in the Kerch Strait.

Kiev handed over to Russia, among others, the former editor-in-chief of the RIA Novosti Ukraine portal Kirill Vyshinsky, Vladimir Tsemakh, two residents of Sevastopol.

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In the fall, Ukraine and the people's republics divorced the troops in Petrovsky and Zolote.

Kiev also agreed on the text of the Steinmeier formula.

True, this step triggered protests by nationalists accusing Zelensky of "surrender".

Despite the formal agreement with the Steinmeier formula, during a press conference following the Paris summit, Zelensky said that Kiev insists on the first-order transfer of the border with Russia - only after that the Ukrainian authorities are ready to organize elections in the uncontrolled regions of Donbass.

“I and the President of the Russian Federation, I say frankly, probably have absolutely different views on the transfer of the border and when it is possible ... I naturally raise the issue of transferring the border before the local elections,” Zelensky said. ...

Commenting on this issue, the Russian leader recalled that Minsk-2 provides for the start of the border transfer process the next day after the local elections.

Putin warned against trying to renegotiate the 2015 agreements. 

“Why open the Minsk agreements and rewrite them again?

There, each item is linked to each other.

And if we open one point, the rewriting of others will begin, and we will generally lose everything and create a situation in which we will not be able to do anything at all, ”the President of the Russian Federation stressed.

Experts suggest that Zelensky left Paris with a deep sense of disappointment.

After returning to his homeland, the President of Ukraine announced the need to revise Minsk-2.

“Zelensky did not come to Paris to take responsibility and take concrete measures to resolve the situation.

It was important for him to maintain his rating by communicating with Putin, Macron and Merkel, "Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Center for Systems Analysis and Forecasting, said in an interview with RT.

Andrey Suzdaltsev adheres to a similar point of view.

According to the political scientist, in Paris, it was very important for Zelensky to personally talk with Putin.

“Apparently, he and his team hoped to achieve unilateral concessions, but the result turned out to be completely different, which, in fact, is not surprising.

Zelensky wanted to shift all responsibility to Russia, which manifested itself in his further actions, "Suzdaltsev explained.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the contact line in Donbass

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The expert called the demilitarization of certain sections of the contact line and the resumption of the truce as positive results of the Paris summit.

All other points, the implementation of which depended entirely on the will of Kiev, were not fulfilled.

Shortly before the anniversary of the summit in the Normandy format, Kiev presented an actually alternative document on the settlement of the conflict called the "Plan of joint steps."

It provides for the demilitarization of Donbass, the launch of the process of transferring the border with the Russian Federation and the holding of local elections on March 31, 2021.

The Kremlin and the people's republics noted that the complex of measures prepared by Ukraine does not correspond to the Minsk agreements.

“There are a lot of people in Ukraine who are interested in the war.

Moreover, both at the level of large oligarchs, politicians, and at the level of everyday life, there are, unfortunately, people who have returned to the operation of the united forces and are proud of it, ”Ischenko said.

Pragmatic position

Initially, the participants in the Normandy summit in Paris intended to discuss the situation with the settlement of the conflict in four months, that is, in April 2020.

Nevertheless, the meeting of the four leaders never took place.

It is noteworthy that this year Kiev has regularly announced a "fast" summit in the Normandy format.

So, in March, Zelensky said that Ukraine expects a meeting of the leaders of the quartet at the end of April, and on July 10, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, said that the summit should take place in "the coming months."

At the end of July, Zelenskiy said that Kiev had begun preparations for the summit.

According to the Ukrainian leader, Paris, Berlin and Moscow allegedly confirmed their agreement to hold a new meeting.

However, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov denied this information. 

In September, during a visit to Austria, Zelenskiy reiterated his confidence that a new summit would certainly take place in the near future.

As before, the President of Ukraine said: "All leaders, as far as I know, confirm their readiness for the meeting."

Meanwhile, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that it does not see the prerequisites for a new summit in the Normandy format.

The question of the meeting of the quartet in Russia is closely linked with progress in the implementation of the agreements spelled out in the final documents of last year's Paris meeting.

At the end of November, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated Kiev's inaction in fulfilling its political obligations, recalling that Ukraine had not integrated the Steinmeier formula into its legal system.

“To implement this decision, nothing is needed except for the legislative work of Ukrainian parliamentarians.

Nobody, except them, can make changes to the legislation of Ukraine.

However, the Verkhovna Rada did not even think to start this, ”the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a commentary.

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Rostislav Ishchenko believes that Moscow has taken a pragmatic position on the issue of holding a new summit in the Normandy format.

In his opinion, Russia realizes that if the order of implementation of the political points of Minsk-2 is violated, then Ukraine will be able to use force against the unrecognized republics.

“Kiev wants to be given the border first, so that he could“ put things in order ”there: physically destroy someone, send someone to jail.

After this cleansing, there will be no sense in the special status of Donbass, ”Ischenko explained.

According to Andrei Suzdaltsev, Moscow's reluctance to agree to a new summit of the "Normandy Four" is due to the fact that Zelensky did not abandon Poroshenko's policy.

From the expert's point of view, the Paris summit on December 9 last year was, by and large, a gesture of goodwill on the part of Moscow.

“Zelensky's rating is highly dependent on how he positions himself in the external arena and interacts, including with Moscow.

In 2019, Putin went to meet the Ukrainian leader, despite the very difficult relations between the countries, became the donor of his image.

But Zelensky followed the lead of the radicals, and now the Normandy format is apparently actually frozen, ”concluded Suzdaltsev.