Tehran has adapted to the sanctions with the help of domestic manufacturing
The United States needs to reset relations with Iran
US sanctions have caused a shortage of vital medical supplies.
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Trump signed the plan of "maximum pressure" on Iran after his administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement concluded with Tehran.
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Even though President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January, his Iran policies may be here to stay.
The danger lies in the US sanctions campaign, known as "maximum pressure", which the State Department is rushing to install in its place, for the incoming Biden administration. The Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, finally indicated that the United States should "compensate" for the mistakes of this policy.
In other words, the "maximum pressure" strategy has undermined American influence rather than improving it, but how did this strategy begin?
Why did it fail?
In 2018, when the United States chose to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and instead issued an ultimatum, known as the "12 demands".
These demands included additional concessions on Iran's nuclear activities, an end to Iran's sponsorship of proxies, an end to the ballistic missile program, and the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria.
The punishment for non-compliance was the sanctions campaign that targeted Iranian commercial and financial institutions, and this strategy posed three problems.
First: The 12 demands target Iran's crucial security interests. Iran has built its military strategy on proxies and ballistic missiles because it is traditionally weak, and while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can suggest to Iran that it “be like Norway,” the Iranian government does not have security guarantees that would make this proposal. Reasonably, the Revolutionary Guards have deep doubts about American intentions regarding the Tehran regime, and as one of the main Iranian power blocs, the Revolutionary Guard has a dominant influence in strategic decision-making, which excludes any opportunity to surrender to the 12 demands.
Second: Iran has adapted to the sanctions by taking advantage of the local manufacturing sector and diversifying its economy, and even if the US policy aims to stop Iran's missile programs, rather than causing a shortage of vital medical materials, the results are still the opposite of intent, and in the meantime Iran is circumventing Weapon restrictions, by manufacturing its weapons locally, and likewise, Tehran has chosen to reduce expenditures on foodstuffs in order to preserve its weapons.
Despite the outbreak of the epidemic and the increasingly tight US sanctions, Iran was able to increase spending in its defense budget by two billion dollars in 2020. "maximum pressure" does not target destabilizing activities, but rather inflicts direct economic damage on the Iranian people and prevents humanitarian efforts.
Third: While the President-elect, Joe Biden, plans to return to diplomacy with Iran, the legal mechanisms currently used in the sanctions campaign bear signs of continuing, and this means that any post-election course correction will entail bureaucratic obstacles, in addition to the costs of credibility with Iran, and in Meanwhile, "maximum pressure" has accelerated, as the Treasury announced sanctions against Iranian banks in September and October, while the State Department tried to impose new arms restrictions on Iran, and outside the government, analysts provide additional justifications for tightening the sanctions strategy.
This is despite the opposite results in most of the measures mentioned, in the original 12 demands, and the biggest problem with this strategy is that "maximum pressure" has not been supported by "subsidiary methods", and instead of using American economic and diplomatic power to facilitate negotiations, the United States is increasingly choosing Coercion, and evidence for that was the recent decision to punish the Iranian ambassador.
Despite this, supporters of "maximum pressure" view these moves as an attempt to contain a "sinister player", and that this strategy removed every possibility of war.
But is it any surprise that attacks on American partners and individuals are the result?
The sanctions did not achieve any results in any of the 12 demands, and what happened was to restrict the ability of the United States to negotiate in order to achieve the goals it wanted, and to stir up tensions between America and Iran, and if the Americans wanted to avoid the continuation of the endless wars of the past two decades, then it is time. Time to admit that "maximum pressure" has had little success.
Resuming diplomacy will not be an easy process, but moving away from the coercion campaign in the past two years is a decisive first step, and the only way to get out of this hole is to stop digging.
• While the President-elect, Joe Biden, plans to return to diplomacy with Iran, the legal mechanisms currently used in the sanctions campaign bear signs of continuing, and this means that any post-election course correction will entail bureaucratic obstacles, in addition to the costs of credibility with Iran.
• Despite the outbreak of the epidemic and the increasingly tight US sanctions, Iran was able to increase spending on its defense budget by two billion dollars in 2020. The maximum pressure does not target destabilizing activities, but rather inflicts direct economic harm on the Iranian people, and prevents humanitarian efforts.
Jeff LaMer - Iran expert and fellow at the John Quincy Adams Association
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