The official political circles in Israel continue to remain silent about the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, despite Tehran's accusations against it and the threat of revenge.
This comes amid a hidden debate between the political and security levels regarding the feasibility of the assassination attributed to Tel Aviv, at a time when the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, renewed the employment of the Iranian nuclear scarecrow before the change of the US administration in the White House.
In isolation from the Iranian threats, the Israeli army has been on alert for months that has turned into a regular scene, with Hezbollah expected to retaliate for the death of one of its members in a raid attributed to Israel months ago on sites in Damascus.
Preparedness and estimates
The state of alert of the occupation army in the Syrian Golan continues in light of the escalation of Iranian threats, as a few days ago explosive devices were discovered on the borders of the ceasefire line, followed by Israeli raids in Damascus, and the Israeli army was also preparing on the front of the Gaza Strip, which witnesses from time to time launching rocket fire On southern Israel, it is met with raids and artillery shelling on the Strip.
In addition to the security assessments and the repercussions of the assassination of the Iranian scientist Fakhrizadeh on Israel and the region, there are estimates by Israeli political and military analysts about the strategic feasibility of the assassination and the profit and loss equation for Tel Aviv.
The analyzes come amid a discrepancy between the political and military position, reflecting the state of official Israeli confusion over the Iranian nuclear file with the election of Joe Biden as President of the United States, despite the consensus that the assassination of Fakhri Zadeh serves Netanyahu's interests by remaining at the helm of the political scene in the event of new elections.
Iran vowed a harsh response after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh (Anatolia)
Silence and indications
Regarding the security implications and controversy in the Israeli scene regarding the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, and the official silence accompanying the security establishment and the Netanyahu government, Ayal Aleimah, a military analyst in the official Israeli channel, believes that official Israel continues to remain completely silent regarding the assassination, despite what is published from News and indications indicate that Tel Aviv, alone or with the coordination, cooperation and participation of America, is behind the operation.
In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, the military analyst explained that it is estimated that Israel is the party that benefits most from the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, as well as the outgoing President Donald Trump's administration, which may have been aware of the assassination as it is believed by belief and assumption, despite the official Israeli silence. .
On the security implications of the occupation army’s preparedness for the possibility that Israel would be subjected to an Iranian strike, the military analyst suggests that the Israeli army has been in a state of readiness and alert for a long time, so that the matter has become as usual, whether on the northern border with Lebanon, or on the Gaza Strip front or in the Golan along the Golan line. cease-fire.
IDF Chief of Staff Avivi Kochavi inspects the northern front after the assassination of Fakhri Zadeh (Al-Jazeera)
Readiness and escalation
To confirm the readiness of the Israeli army for any escalation scenario, the military analyst recalled the field tour that the Chief of Staff of the Army Aviv Kochavi made to the northern border, 48 hours after the assassination of the Iranian scientist, in a message to Tehran that the Israeli army continues its activities and military operations and monitoring Iranian moves and Iranian positioning In Syria.
The military analyst suggested that the Israeli army, before the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, continued its operations and activities on the Golan front on a regular basis. Rather, it made assessments and weighed all possibilities, anticipating all scenarios, and concluded that Iran would not respond immediately and directly to any operation attributed to Israel, It will not undertake any military action that might lead to a comprehensive confrontation, and thus refrained from raising the army’s readiness to the highest level, despite the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s warnings to all its citizens around the world of the consequences of Iranian operations.
Despite these estimates, the Israeli military analyst asserts that Tel Aviv monitors, monitors and monitors where Tehran is heading with the file of the assassination of the nuclear scientist, and conducts an intelligence analysis of Iranian statements and positions, stressing that the official Israeli belief confirms that Iran will respond to the assassination, but the question remains, which is Confuses Israel, is the location, timing and nature of the response?
The timing of Fakhrizadeh's assassination is linked to the US elections and Biden's victory (Getty Images)
Motives and timing
For his part, the Israeli political analyst Akiva Eldar believes that the timing of the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist is linked to the decision of the Fund in the American elections and Biden's victory, as well as the possibility of Israel heading to early elections in 2021, and therefore it is not a coincidence that the American president-elect, as well as the European Union countries, expressed their resentment that The assassination takes place during the transitional phase and the end of Trump's term, who tries to search for a picture of victory in the Middle East and complicates the burning regional files before he leaves the White House.
In his speech to Al Jazeera Net, the political analyst explained that Trump - who remained silent and contented himself with re-posting a tweet by the Israeli military analyst, Yossi Melman, praising the assassination of Fakhri Zah - followed the approach of Netanyahu, who is looking forward to new elections next year, and declined to comment on Iranian accusations against Israel. And her involvement in the assassination, and contented himself with tweeting hours after the assassination, saying, "This week I have done a lot of work, and I cannot talk in detail about all of them."
He pointed out that Israel often refrains from talking or addressing the operations and assassinations carried out in Syria and the region, and even around the world, and is attributed to the Mossad.
And that Israel will continue the same approach of assassination, and Israeli estimates indicate that Tehran, which is facing difficult economic conditions and the Corona crisis, will distance itself from directing a strike that could lead to a military confrontation with Tel Aviv, especially as it wants to give Biden an opportunity to settle the nuclear agreement.
Netanyahu does not want to wait for Biden to take office (Reuters)
Netanyahu, Biden
The Israeli political analyst suggested that the prime minister does not want to wait for Biden to take over the reins of power in the White House, and Netanyahu - who is facing files of corruption charges and heading for new elections next year - has returned to employ the Iranian scarecrow to woo the Israeli public and promote that he is the savior of the Iranian nuclear, and the godfather of normalization with countries Arabic.
In light of the shuffling of the cards by Trump and Netanyahu, it is not excluded, as the political analyst says, that "the Biden administration pushes toward obligating Israel to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and uses regional peace and normalization to force Tel Aviv to accept this, and to move towards denuclearization of the Middle East," This is the proposition that Tehran has shown its willingness to accept the term of former President Barack Obama, who retreated and ultimately succumbed to Israeli pressure, and the question remains whether Biden is willing to confront Netanyahu to achieve this?