The Biden Administration and the Future of Arab Democracy

There is a feeling of optimism among many observers and Arab citizens, especially the political opposition, that Joe Biden will win the US presidential elections and the "supposed" departure of the Trump administration on January 20.

Perhaps the most prominent issue that has captured the attention of activists and opponents is the pressure that the Biden administration may exert on the Arab authoritarian regimes, especially in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Syria, to gain more freedoms and stop human rights violations.

As we said in a previous article, this optimism has a lot of optimism, and it should not be relied upon as a basis for analysis.

It is true that the Trump administration was, and still is, an important ally of Arab authoritarian regimes, giving them a blank check regarding human rights violations, whether as is the case in Egypt, where Trump considers Abdel Fattah al-Sisi his "favorite dictator", or in Saudi Arabia, which represents A historic ally of the United States, which has reached the point that Trump brags that he is protecting the throne of its king, and that if he raised his hand from him, he would have fallen within two weeks

However, it remains an exaggeration to expect a fundamental change in the US policy towards these regimes, especially with regard to issues of democracy, freedoms and respect for human rights.

This is for several reasons, the first of which is historical and related to the poor record of the United States in supporting authoritarian regimes around the world since the early 1950s, when it supported the coup of the Shah against the government of Muhammad Mossadegh in Iran. TPAJAX Project.

America also supported the military regimes in Latin America during the sixties and seventies in the context of confronting the eastern camp, as is the case in Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, and more recently, support for the coup attempt in Venezuela and what happened in Bolivia in 2019, when President Evo Morales was forced to resign and leave the country, not to mention About the rumors of Washington’s involvement, or at least its silence on the failed coup attempt in Turkey in the summer of 2016.

The United States also overlooks and silences various human rights violations, whether in the Arab world or outside it, as was happening in Egypt under Mubarak, in Syria under Hafez al-Assad, and later with Bashar al-Assad and others.

Washington also did not take any action to stop Sisi's coup in Egypt in the summer of 2013, and Biden was at that time Barack Obama's deputy.

As for the second reason, it is a strategic reason related to the nature of the strategic relations between Washington and its Arab allies, especially in Egypt and the Gulf, as is the case with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Issues of security, defense, intelligence and economic cooperation are at the top of the priorities of these relations, not what is related to issues of democracy and human rights.

There is a personal reason that makes optimism about the possibility of a change in US policy towards Arab authoritarian regimes difficult, and it is related to the nature of Biden himself.

The man belongs to the traditional school of foreign policy, which is based on giving priority to strategic interests with the allies over any other issues such as democracy and human rights.

And if there is any interest that the Biden administration attaches to this issue, then it will be for the sake of achieving American interests in the region, and not moral or ethical support.

Take, for example, the Egyptian case, where Egypt gets approximately $ 1.4 billion in annual military and economic aid from America from the late 1970s to the present day.

For more than 40 years no conditions have been placed on this aid in exchange for improving human rights conditions in Egypt, and perhaps the only time that happened was the suspension of part of this aid in October 2013, after the massacres that occurred in Egypt in particular. The massacres of Rabi'a al-Adawiya and al-Nahda

But the ban on this part of the aid was later lifted under the pretext of supporting Egypt in the so-called fight against terrorism.

The same is the case with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as arms deals between Riyadh and Washington are large, amounting to billions of dollars over the course of entire decades, and therefore it is not expected that conditions will be placed on these deals or stopped for the sake of human rights and democracy issues.

On the other hand, the one who manages the strategic relations between America and the Arab regimes is not only a resident of the White House, but there are other institutions such as the (Pentagon) Ministry, the National Security Agency, arms companies, political pressure lobbies ... etc.

It is true that the president has a role;

However, due to many considerations, including national security and the fear that the Arab allies will go to Russia and China, all of this places great restrictions on the American president regarding linking arms sales to the issue of human rights.

Finally, there is a personal reason that makes optimism about the possibility of a change in US policy towards Arab authoritarian regimes difficult, and it is related to the nature of Biden himself.

The man belongs to the traditional school of foreign policy, which is based on giving priority to strategic interests with the allies over any other issues such as democracy and human rights.

Also, according to many reports, Biden was not enthusiastic or a supporter of the Arab Spring when it was launched in late 2010.

Rather, he expressed his desire for Mubarak to remain in power, or to transfer it to another person within the army, such as Omar Suleiman, in order to preserve the strategic interests of America.

The Syrian revolution was militarized while Biden was in power, and no measures were taken to deter Bashar al-Assad, especially when he used chemical weapons in the Ghouta massacre in August 2013, which occurred during the Biden and Obama era, and they did not move a finger.

Finally, and contrary to what some expect, the Biden administration will not attach much importance to the Middle East, in order to focus on its conflict with China and Russia.