The price of the lockdown. Svimez report: 10 billion lost in the South every closing month

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November 24, 2020 Each month of lockdown "cost" almost 48 billion euros, 3.1% of the

, over 37 of which "lost" to the Center-North (3.2% of the GDP) and almost 10 in the South ( 2.8% of GDP). 

This is what emerges from the data of the Svimez 2020 report, which highlights how the first wave of the pandemic had the North as its epicenter, but the economic crisis soon spread to the South, where it translated into a social emergency by crossing a productive fabric. weaker, a more fragmented world of work and a more fragile society. 

According to Svimez,

at the end of 2020 it would be below its minimum peak in 2014 and 18 percentage points lower than in 2007 (the center-north by about 11).

Svimez forecasts for 2020 mark -9% for the South, -9.8% for the Center-North and -9.6% for the country.

The South also suffers a stronger impact in terms of employment: in the first three quarters of 2020 the reduction is equal to 4.5% (triple compared to the Center-North), with a loss of about 280 thousand jobs in the South.

Compared to 2007, Svimez points out that the South has lost over half a million jobs.

As for the future, for 2021 Svimez expects GDP to grow in the South by 1.2% and in 2022 by 1.4%, while in the Center-North by 4.5% in 2021 and 5.3% the next year.

The consequence is that the recovery would be marked by the reopening of a strong differential between the two macro areas.

As for

, already at the lowest in Europe, it fell by almost half a million in the first six months of 2020.

Contrary to the previous crisis (mainly industrial), the employment effects of the lockdown were discharged precisely on the female component employed in services with precarious contracts. 

In his report Svimez highlights how the precariousness of female employment remains much higher than that of male employment, especially in the southern regions: a quarter of fixed-term employees in the South have had that job for at least five years (compared to 13 -14% of employees in the center-north);

11.5% of women have an hourly wage lower than two thirds of the median, compared to 7.9% of men (in the South this share rises to 20%, compared to 14% of men);

female employment in highly qualified cognitive professions decreased, between 2008 and 2019, by over 290 thousand units at national level (-7.1%), while in the other European countries it increased (+ 21.9% in eu-15).

The decline in the South was much more pronounced (-16.2%) than in the Center-North (-4%).  

If the pandemic is more lenient with the health of young people, it is not as regards

 which fell by 8% in the first two quarters of 2020, more than double the total decline in employment.

At the territorial level, the impact on young people was even heavier in the southern regions, already characterized by very low levels of participation in the labor market: 12%.

This is highlighted by svimez in its 2020 report, explaining how this is a consequence of a double penalty: on the one hand, the non-renewal of contracts during the lockdown period has weighed, on the other the doors have closed for those who in 2020 should have entered in the labor market.

Neets are also increasing, young people aged between 15 and 34 who are not employed, not in education and training.

In midday, in 2020, they grew by about 150 thousand units, reaching the figure of 1 million and 800 thousand people.

In the north, however, there are 1 million and 339 thousand, for a total of 3 million and 139 thousand neet in Italy.