A scientific understanding of my country's per capita GDP development goals in 2035
[In-depth study and implementation of the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party]
Among my country’s long-term goals for 2035 set by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has reached the level of moderately developed countries. It is the only relatively clear quantitative development indicator. Scientifically understand this development goal. The connotation and requirements of the slogan are of great significance for basically realizing the long-term goal of socialist modernization by 2035.
Shows that my country's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities
The three-step strategy of my country's economic development proposed by the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1987, the third step of which is to achieve basic modernization by the middle of the 21st century—that is, around 2050—and the per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries.
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in 2017 comprehensively analyzed the international and domestic situation and my country's development conditions, and proposed that socialist modernization should be basically achieved by 2035.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party further proposed that by 2035, the per capita GDP will reach the level of a moderately developed country.
The point in time when the per capita GDP reaches the level of moderately developed countries will be advanced from 2050 to 2035, indicating that my country's economy will still have a strong momentum for development in the future, which is specifically manifested in the following two aspects.
The demand pull will continue to be strong.
First, my country has the advantage of a super-large-scale market.
In terms of total consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 is equivalent to 95.67% of that of the United States, while China’s total GDP is only more than 60% of that of the United States. This indicates that China’s super-large market will continue to provide strong support for economic development; Structurally, China has entered an accelerated period of consumption structure upgrading, with super-large-scale new market demands, which can effectively drive the development of strategic emerging industries and the conversion of old and new kinetic energy; in terms of consumption trends, as China’s economy is steadily moving towards a stage of high-quality development And residents’ income continues to grow steadily, and the size of the middle-income group continues to expand. According to McKinsey’s survey, China’s middle-income group will reach 630 million people by 2022, nearly twice the total population of the United States.
Second, my country is in a period of accelerating new industrialization.
The scale of strategic emerging industries is still low, and key core technologies need to accelerate self-reliance; the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is arduous, and there is still considerable room for improvement in variety, quality satisfaction and brand recognition.
This will lead to large-scale investment demand.
Finally, our country is in the formation period of a higher level of opening up.
With the advancement of the “Belt and Road” construction, the overall opening pattern along the border, rivers, and coastal areas has basically taken shape, forming a strong support for the stable and sustainable development of foreign trade; with the continuous implementation of the free trade zone construction and the “going out” strategy, my country Has become an important force in promoting economic globalization.
The supply drive will continue to be optimized.
One is the continuous improvement of the quality of factor inputs.
In terms of technological innovation, in the global innovation index rankings, my country rose to 14th place in 2019, and it is the only middle-income economy among the top 20. Total factor productivity has shown a clear upward trend; in terms of digital transformation, my country's digital economy has maintained a relatively fast The proportion of GDP increased from 14.2% in 2005 to 36.2% in 2019.
The second is the continuous optimization of the economic structure.
In terms of industrial structure, strategic emerging industries continue to increase the driving force of economic growth, and fundamental progress will be made in the conversion of new and old kinetic energy; in terms of regional structure, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Economic Belt will accelerate their agglomeration Development has become an important regional economic growth pole that promotes economic growth. In terms of urban and rural structure, China is still in a period of accelerated urbanization. With the rapid development of large and medium cities and the promotion of rural revitalization strategies, the release of urbanization dividends will accelerate.
The third is the continuous release of system dividends.
The basic economic system in the primary stage of socialism in my country has been finalized. With the gradual improvement of the economic system and economic operation mechanism, the huge advantages of the basic economic system will be more effectively transformed into the efficiency of national governance, forming an organic combination of an effective market and a promising government .
Reflect a fairer goal orientation
While the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that the per capita GDP in 2035 will reach the level of moderately developed countries, it immediately put forward the requirements for the significant expansion of the middle-income group, the equalization of basic public services, the development gap between urban and rural areas, and the significant reduction of the gap between residents’ living standards .
This reflects the fairer goal orientation of my country's 2035 per capita GDP development goal.
Significantly expand the middle-income group.
The Party Central Committee emphasizes the realization of fuller and higher-quality employment, requires further improvement of the wage growth mechanism, emphasizes increasing the element income and property income of low- and middle-income groups, creates more fair competition opportunities for low- and middle-income groups, and shares the dividends of reform and opening up. These requirements And deployment can enable more people to enter the middle-income group fairly and help further increase the proportion of the middle-income group.
Significantly narrow the income gap.
The Party Central Committee emphasizes that the realization, maintenance, and development of the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people are the starting point and end point of development, and in response to the widening of the income gap that the broad masses of people are most concerned about, through high-quality development and deepening the reform of the income distribution system, Significantly narrow the gap between urban and rural development and the gap in the living standards of residents.
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that we should do our best and do what we can to minimize the income gap, and demand that the people’s yearning for a better life be our goal, and we should significantly reduce the development gap between urban and rural areas and the living standards of residents by 2035. The development goals of the gap are benchmarked against the table to complete the fairer development goals on schedule.
Establish a more equitable distribution system.
The first is to improve the initial distribution system.
Emphasize that the initial distribution should also pay attention to fairness. It is necessary to pay attention to the fairness of opportunities. Through deepening the reform of the system and mechanism, breaking down barriers between industries, regions, urban and rural areas, realizing the free flow of production factors, so that the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, so that the people can share development opportunities; It is necessary to pay attention to fairness of distribution, improve the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution through the improvement of the wage system and the mechanism of reasonable wage growth, and improve the mechanism for the market to determine the remuneration of various factors of production, so that the people can share the development dividend.
The second is to improve the secondary distribution system.
It is proposed that the secondary distribution should pay more attention to fairness. It is necessary to strengthen the adjustment strength and accuracy of taxation on income distribution by improving the modern tax system, optimizing the tax structure, and deepening the reform of the tax collection and management system, so as to adjust excessively high income reasonably and ban illegal income. It is necessary to deepen the reform of social security, transfer payment and other institutional mechanisms to strengthen the adjustment of income distribution and expand the income sources of low- and middle-income groups.
The third is to play the role of the third distribution.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed for the first time that the three-time distribution is an important part of improving the distribution of income and wealth. It is necessary to establish and improve related systems, develop philanthropy and social welfare undertakings, and form support through socialist core values education. The morality of helping the poor and loving social welfare.
Highlight the requirements of the times with high-quality development as the theme
Practice has proved that only with the theme of promoting high-quality development and deepening the supply-side structural reform as the main line, can we achieve the development goal of 2035 per capita GDP as scheduled.
For this reason, in actual work, efforts need to be made in the following aspects.
Speed up the development of a modern industrial system.
The first is to increase the transformation of traditional industries and unswervingly build a manufacturing power.
Increase the proportion of my country's high-tech manufacturing industry in the added value of industries above designated size, and keep the proportion of the secondary industry's added value in the gross domestic product at a level compatible with the development stage; use new generation information technology and artificial intelligence technology to promote tradition Digital transformation of the industry, advance the advanced industrial base, modernize the industrial chain, and improve economic quality, efficiency and core competitiveness.
The second is to develop strategic emerging industries and occupy the commanding heights of industrial competition.
Continuously increase the proportion of the added value of strategic emerging industries in GDP, making it a decisive driving force for economic growth; implement in-depth the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, the strategy of strengthening the country through talents, and the strategy of innovation-driven development, improving the national innovation system, and accelerating the building of a strong country in science and technology .
The third is to develop modern service industries and build new pillar industries.
Continuously increase the added value of culture, health, sports, tourism, pension and other industries as a proportion of GDP, and make it grow into a new pillar industry supporting economic growth; deepen the implementation of the reform of “decentralization, management and service” and the opening of the service industry to attract Domestic and foreign enterprises have increased their high-quality investment in the service industry and promoted the modernization of the service industry.
Coordinate economic development and economic security.
On the one hand, seek security through development and ensure national economic security.
Prioritize the development of the rural economy, promote agricultural modernization, and ensure food security; deepen the reform of the financial system, promote effective financial support for the real economy, and ensure financial security; deepen the reform of the educational technology system and mechanism, promote scientific and technological self-reliance, and ensure industrial safety and control; implement economic society Develop a comprehensive green transformation, promote green development, and ensure ecological safety.
On the other hand, to ensure development with safety, keep the bottom line of systemic risks free.
Strengthen the building of national security capabilities, prevent and defuse various risks that affect my country's modernization process; strengthen early warning of economic security risks, promote the construction of a risk prevention system, and ensure safe and controllable economic development.
In addition, build a benign interaction mechanism between development and safety to achieve safer, high-quality development.
Integrate security development into all areas and the entire process of national development, promote the construction of the national security system, and ensure that development and security are coordinated in the institutional system; focus on the economic development of the real economy, promote the rapid development of strategic emerging industries, and ensure Development and security are coordinated in kinetic energy.
Accelerate the construction of a new development pattern in which the domestic big cycle is the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.
The first is to deepen the supply-side structural reforms to smooth the domestic cycle.
Promote the quality revolution of the manufacturing industry to solve the serious misalignment of supply and demand; promote the modernization of the service industry to meet the growing service demand of the people; promote innovation-driven, leading and creating new demand with high-quality supply.
The second is to rely on my country's ultra-large-scale market advantages to promote international circulation.
To adapt to the upgrading of domestic consumption structure and promote the development of trade innovation; to adapt to the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, to promote wider, broader and deeper opening to the outside world; to promote the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road" and lead the economic globalization.
The third is to make full use of two markets and two resources to promote the mutual promotion of dual cycles.
Comprehensively improve the level of opening to the outside world, deepen the reform of property rights and factor markets, and expand the scale and quality of domestic consumption investment; promote in-depth cooperation with various countries around the world, expand the scale and level of international circulation; accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, and promote a more adaptive supply structure Demand structure, expand the big market advantage of dual-cycle mutual promotion.
(Author: Wong Tai Yan, Department of Beijing Xi Jinping new era of ideological socialism with Chinese characteristics research center special researcher, former president of the Central University for Nationalities)