How will the presidential transition initiated by Donald Trump take place on Monday evening?

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usan Walsh / AP / SIPA

  • This Monday evening, Donald Trump indicated that the government agency responsible for the transfer of power would do what is necessary to initiate the transition protocols.

  • This is the first time that the ousted president has launched a handover initiative with Joe Biden, after weeks of denying his defeat.

  • However, nothing yet allows to count on a calm and peaceful transition, according to Alexis Pichard, researcher in American civilization.

After completely denying for weeks his defeat in the US presidential election, Donald Trump finally gave the green light on Monday evening to the process of transferring power to Joe Biden.

In a series of tweets, the current tenant of the White House indicated to recommend "in the best interests of our country" that the government agency in charge of the transfer of power do "what is necessary concerning the protocols, and j 'asked my team to do the same ”.

Joe Biden's team immediately took note of a step allowing “a peaceful and smooth transfer of power”.

Donald Trump, however, indicated that he still believed in his chances of victory and waged a "just fight" for it.

Alexis Pichard, researcher in American civilization and author of 

Trump and the media, the illusion of a war? 

(Ed.

VA Press), explains the different consequences that this beginning of transition could have.

How does the transition traditionally work?

The transition very often takes place peacefully, even in cases where it is a change of party.

The outgoing president and the president-elect work closely together as soon as the election results are announced on all major ongoing and future issues.

In particular, the outgoing president communicates all top secret information relating to internal and external security issues.

There is no lack of examples of a good transition: Barack Obama recently recalled how much his Republican predecessor George W. Bush had facilitated his assumption of office.

Rare are the cases where the transition between administrations was calamitous: we nevertheless remember the transfer of power between Hoover and Roosevelt after the election of 1932 which was carried out in pain against a background of economic crisis, which also led to reduction of the transition period from 4 to 2 months.

Originally, the "President-Elect" took the reins of the United States in March (instead of January).

Donald Trump has announced that he continues to believe in a victory.

Can we therefore speak of a formalization of transition since Monday evening or is it just a start?

Donald Trump has been on a ridge line for some time: he makes ambiguous statements in which he seems to concede defeat in order to better change his mind later and say that he will go to the end of the appeals.

He thus seems to be gradually preparing his exit according to his legal setbacks - around 30 so far - while refusing to pass for a "loser" to his troops, hence this constant but unstable balance between signs of surrender and all-out invective to denigrate the ballot.

His decision this Monday evening to endorse the opening of the transition process is a perfect illustration of this bipolar behavior: on Twitter, he announced that he had given the green light in the interest of the country, specifying, however, that legal remedies are available. will continue and think “we will be victorious”.

Once the teams work together on the transition as Donald Trump wishes, what is allowed for the future Biden administration?

The future Biden administration will receive secret-defense information and will finally be able to meet with ministerial agencies, and mobilize officials to help organize the transition.

Access to confidential information will allow Joe Biden and his teams to better prepare the health strategy they want to put in place in January to curb the coronavirus pandemic.

It is indeed difficult to imagine Donald Trump collaborating with his successor on a common government health response ...

Finally, we must not neglect the financial aspect of the transition: the endorsement of Donald Trump makes it possible to release some 6 million dollars that Joe Biden will be able to use to form his future government and appoint thousands of collaborators to positions. vacant officials.

Is there still a risk that the transition will go wrong?

In itself, the fact of having delayed the transition by 20 days is already a major paralysis which has forced Joe Biden's teams to work independently without having access to a whole set of information that would have enabled them to gain knowledge. 'advance on some important cases, such as the coronavirus pandemic.

The Trump administration can always put a spoke in the wheels of the future tenant of the White House by not giving access to all the files, for example.

But, if Donald Trump truly wishes to serve the general interest, as he announced in his tweets on Monday evening, everything suggests that a transfer of power in good intelligence will take place.

There remains a crucial question mark: no one knows to this day when the ousted president will publicly acknowledge his defeat, just as it is still unclear whether he will leave the White House on January 20.

In any case, Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi have already warned: if he refuses to leave, Trump will be dislodged manu militari by the secret service.

A spectacular stage exit worthy of this "reality" presidency.

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