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November 19, 2020 The set of policies of the Italian government to cope with the Covid crisis avoided 600 thousand layoffs in 2020.
This is what can be read in an analysis by the Bank of Italy which calculates the impact of the measures to extend the IGC, the support for corporate liquidity and the blocking of layoffs.
In the study, by the researcher Eliana Viviano (which does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the central institute) it is noted that about one third of these 600 thousand layoffs "would probably not have occurred, even in the absence of the block, thanks to the other measures".
According to the analysis, therefore, in 2020, 500 thousand layoffs would have occurred without the Covid crisis, as in 2019 (compared to approximately 1.2 million expected hires and transformations).
It is estimated that between January and mid-March 2020 (i.e. before the blockade), there were approximately 100,000 layoffs for economic reasons in the private sector: in the first instance, it can be considered that the rule on the blocking of layoffs is preventing at least 400,000 layoffs would occur under normal conditions.
In the absence of policies, layoffs in 2020 would have increased by about 30 per cent to 700,000.
This result must be interpreted in the light of the sectoral and size-class distribution of the shock and the fact that the "pre-Covid" CIG would have prevented part of the layoffs in 2020. The wide coverage guaranteed by the CIG-Covid and other policies could have prevent most of the additional layoffs due to the Covid-19 crisis (about 200 thousand), keeping the number of layoffs in 2020 at the levels of the previous year, even regardless of the legislation to block layoffs