On November 17, 2018, France turned yellow.
Dressed in the fluorescent vest, previously reserved for road safety, 282,000 demonstrators, according to the Interior Ministry, occupied roundabouts that day and blocked roads throughout France.
The yellow vests movement was born.
Two years and a Covid-19 pandemic later, where is the movement?
Can it reappear in favor of the discontent against the management of the pandemic, the economic crisis or the upcoming elections?
"For the collective imagination, yellow vests has become a symbol of the struggle", explains Jean Viard, sociologist, associate research director at Cevipof-CNRS, interviewed by France 24. "When we ask people what they think of Yellow vests, they think well about 52/53%. The rate of support has never fallen. "
"They are still there. The fact that some of the demands have been satisfied has reduced them. The fact that the thugs have taken over has refreshed them but they are still there", adds François Dubet, sociologist and professor emeritus at the University of Bordeaux, which analyzed the movement within the framework of the collective book "The revolt of yellow vests" (Ed. Niet).
"Uncontrolled, unpredictable and heterogeneous"
The experts interviewed recall the singular nature of the movement born in the fall of 2018 following a call on social networks to demonstrate against the rise in the price of gasoline.
"The scale of the phenomenon surprised everyone including the yellow vests themselves. Usually, movements are born thanks to calls from associations or unions. There, everything started from calls from people recorded on their cellphones. . It's a spontaneous movement ", notes François Dubet.
"It is exceptional in that it lasted a long time, mobilized a lot of people and did not have a traditional organization. It has remained uncontrolled, unpredictable and heterogeneous. It is something unheard of in the recent history. "
"The yellow vests movement was a peri-urban or rural movement of people who work in cities in service or commercial activities. It is not a socially homogeneous movement, it goes from small bosses to truck drivers. They are often people who have extricated themselves from the working condition of their parents. I call them 'successful workers', they left their parents' low-cost housing to settle in housing estates next to cities, "explains Jean Viard.
"This population found itself at the door of metropolises and globalization. We started telling them: you have to live in the city, you have to travel by bike, you have to dress green, you have to get rid of the diesels … They ended up feeling like they had been forgotten. "
A bundle of fuzzy claims that made the movement last
The movement initially fought the increase in fuel taxes but the demands quickly widened: a change of policy by Emmanuel Macron or his departure, the end of 80 km / h on the departmental roads, the establishment of a referendum Citizen's Initiative… A heterogeneity of demands that allowed the movement to last.
"What characterizes the movement is the absence of demands. It is a movement which was the expression of a general fed up. It was an aggregation of individual anger. Listening to what told the yellow vests, it was always personal stories and an impression of being despised ", explains François Dubet.
"And when there are no demands, they are never satisfied."
However, Emmanuel Macron is committed to it.
As of December 2018, he renounces the increase in fuel taxation and announces 100 euros more per month for minimum wage employees, overtime "without taxes or charges".
Nothing works.
They don't go out.
The Saturdays of mobilization follow one another, the major demonstrations in Paris too.
They are radicalizing.
Several gatherings end in violence.
Documented cases of police violence against yellow vests are increasing.
Only the first confinement will put an end to Saturday's litany of mobilization.
But Facebook groups, vectors of mobilizations, continue to be active.
A few die-hards still occupy roundabouts, as in Montargis.
Dormant networks
"Some [yellow vests] are still asking for the citizens' initiative referendum (RIC), others have disengaged but remain invested in social networks. It is a classic of the sociology of mobilizations: they are born, come to sleep or even People are doing something else but these networks are dormant, we cannot predict in what form but without being too wrong, we can predict that these networks will reactivate ", notes Magali Della Sudda, researcher at the CNRS and specialist in Yellow vests, interviewed by AFP.
"We can imagine that in the future, these militant behaviors will recur. The groups that have maintained themselves have lived experiences of convergence of struggles, during mobilizations for the environment with Youth for climate or against the pension reform. It is a movement that has created links of mutual aid with strong political networks, which are likely to re-mobilize, "adds Emmanuelle Reungoat, lecturer in political science at the University of Montpellier, questioned by AFP.
The French incarnation of a global movement
For some researchers, another aspect of the yellow vests movement has infused into public debate: a distrust of established institutions.
In February 2019, a major Ifop survey revealed that, among the yellow vests, conspiracy was much stronger than in the rest of the population.
In this period of confinement, the health policy to be carried out is a field of expression of this facet of yellow vests.
The recent conspiracy documentary "Hold-up" and anti-mask messages have had some success in these spheres, as Tristan Mendès-France, specialist in digital cultures, notes.
"There is an obvious porosity between these different movements protesting health measures and the yellow vests. The groups within which this information circulates in a decentralized manner allow certain communities to pollinate other groups", explains to HuffPost Tristan Mendès-France, associate lecturer at the University of Paris.
"There are still yellow vests mistrust of institutions, a certain conspiracy. We have the impression that political parties are incapable of relaying their anger. In France, this movement was called 'yellow vests'. In England , it was Brexit. In the United States, it was Donald Trump. In Italy, the 5-star movement. The yellow vests are the French expression of a general movement of mistrust against political institutions. to be ignored and despised is always there ", warns François Dubet.
Faced with the lack of prospects and the persistence of deep inequalities made even worse by confinement, could yellow anger find a political outlet?
Éric Drouet, a former figure of the movement, believes in it and has declared his candidacy for the 2022 presidential election. However, for the researchers interviewed, a political outlet is far from certain even if a strong man's temptation exists in the movement.
"The yellow vests are not politicized, they do not vote and are against the entire political hierarchy. There is an almost anarcho-syndicalism dimension. Moreover when a leader appears, he kills him. There is more anger than programs. They are representative of an era: there is no longer any major political project. Those who feel forgotten offer themselves a last stand without wanting to take power ", explains Jean Viard, who notes everything. even part of the movement calls for "a strong authority to correct a society that would go in the wrong direction".
"To Europeans, the yellow vests have instead voted National Front but it is far from being a tidal wave towards this party," recalls François Dubet.
"General De Villiers, Didier Raoult ... One has the impression that if they presented themselves they could score but this movement is self-destructive of its own idols. Moreover, the comic Bigard wanted to be the spokesperson yellow vests in the presidential election. He had to be exfiltrated from a demonstration. This movement seems very far from politics. "
The summary of the week
France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 application
google-play-badge_FR