Biden and the Middle East .. Misplaced optimism

A state of optimism has prevailed in the Arab street since the announcement of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, who won the US presidential elections last week. This is optimism, albeit justified, especially in light of the disasters and political tragedies that the Arab region has witnessed and lived through over the past four years, during which Donald ruled Trump America;

However, there is an overabundance of this optimism, at least among some, that the region will witness a radical change in which Biden will break with Trump's heavy legacy.

Therefore, it is important to dismantle the various files, with which Biden is expected to engage in the next four years in order to find out whether or not we will witness a break with Trump's legacy.

But before that, it must be noted that the Arab region is not expected to occupy great importance in the direction of US foreign policy during the Biden era in general, and this matter is due to many reasons, some of which are related to Biden’s vision, which is not very different from the vision of former US President Barack Obama, To the global arena, and to the spaces and files of international conflict, which gives Asia and the Pacific priority over everything else.

Among them is also related to the Chinese issue, which has become an important file on the table of any American administration, whether it is a republican or a democracy. The fearful Chinese rise represents a security and geostrategic threat to America, according to the testimony of all US intelligence agencies, which have been talking about this danger for more than a decade. Which made Obama, along with his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in his first term in office, change the American foreign policy compass throughout the Obama years towards China and the Pacific region as an area of ​​conflict and influence between the two countries;

Therefore, Joe Biden will not differ much from the two, and China will continue to be an urgent priority issue on his list of priorities abroad.

The American pressure on more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel may decrease, as the Trump administration did with Bahrain and Sudan.

But this does not mean that the Biden administration will impede such normalization if it occurs. On the contrary, Biden welcomed normalization two months ago between the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand, and Israel on the other hand.

It goes without saying that the issue of Israel's security and qualitative superiority is the subject of an agreement between Republicans and Democrats, and no one can imagine that this will change under the Biden administration.

The matter becomes more urgent after Trump has done with China over the past four years, and his ability to put an end to what the average American citizen sees as a Chinese crawl and hegemony over global markets in a way that comes at America's expense, and this citizen will compare Biden’s performance and behavior with China with what Trump did with it, which Some believe that it has achieved a historic victory over it by imposing customs and duties on its exports to America, and the Chinese issue is almost one of the issues that there is unanimity on among Americans regardless of their importance and seriousness, even if there is a difference in how they approach and deal with them.

While the Republicans, especially with Trump, use the method of confrontation through the well-known strategy of "maximum pressure", the Democrats prefer dialogue and cooperation with Beijing.

Returning to the Arab region, the three files that may dominate Biden's agenda are the file of the relationship with Iran, the file of the relationship with Israel, and the file of the relationship with the Arab authoritarian regimes, especially in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

As for the first file, we may witness an important shift in US policy towards Iran, especially with regard to the issue of sanctions imposed by Trump over the past years, which reached unprecedented levels of restrictions and pressure on Tehran after the unilateral US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement two and a half years ago. Biden is expected to return the United States to the deal;

But with the imposition of new conditions to ensure that Iran does not enrich uranium during the last two years, in return for lifting the sanctions, even partially.

This, of course, is unless the Trump administration, in alliance with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, launches military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities before Trump leaves the White House within the next two months, as is currently reported in various media.

As for the issue of the relationship with Israel, especially the issue of the two-state solution and normalization with the Arab countries, it is not expected that there will be a decisive or different American role in the two issues, despite Biden's adoption of the two-state solution and his rejection of Israeli attempts to impose a fait accompli on the Palestinians, especially with regard to the West Bank. Western;

However, Biden is not expected to take actual measures to deter Israel, or prevent it from implementing its plan to annex parts of the West Bank, which was suspended several months ago as a result of Israel’s attempt to benefit from it in justifying normalization with the Arab countries.

As for this last issue, the American pressure on more Arab countries to establish normalization with Israel may diminish, as the Trump administration did with Bahrain and Sudan.

But this does not mean that the Biden administration will impede such normalization if it occurs. On the contrary, Biden welcomed normalization two months ago between the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand, and Israel on the other hand.

It goes without saying that the issue of Israel's security and qualitative superiority is the subject of an agreement between Republicans and Democrats, and no one can imagine that this will change under the Biden administration.

As for the file of the relationship with Arab authorities, especially with regard to the issue of respect for human rights and democracy, although Biden may not support human rights violations, especially in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE;

However, he is also not expected to exert great pressure on them if these violations continue.

For example, the Biden administration is not expected to cut military aid to Egypt or to stop arms sales to Saudi Arabia or the UAE, in protest to the Yemen war or its miserable record on the issue of human rights, despite Biden’s pledge to do so during the election campaign.

Statements and condemnations may come out from time to time;

But it is difficult to translate into real policies and actions.

It is true that Biden would not consider someone like Sisi his "favorite dictator" as Trump does;

But it is also true that he will not sever the relationship with him or seriously punish him for his flagrant violations of human rights in Egypt.

So perhaps optimists in the Arab world should beware of exaggerating optimism about the Biden administration, and what it can do in the region, if it is true that the number of villains around the world will decrease. Because of Trump's departure from power, but that does not necessarily mean that the good guys will increase with the rise of Biden to power.