In the "post-Trump era", how does the Republican Party clean up the mess?
[Global Times Special Correspondent in the United States Zheng Ke, Global Times reporter Li Sikun, Global Times Special Correspondent Wang Huicong] Although US President Trump refused to admit defeat, the result of this fiercely competitive election was considered by public opinion, and many international media said " The "post-Trump era" has begun.
Right now, the Republican Party faces the challenge of where to go.
In the past four years, Trump has left an indelible mark on the Republican Party and even made it the "Trump Party."
Even senior Republican leaders have a hard time judging whether they can get rid of the political label of "populism" in the "post-Trump era."
Given Trump’s complex legacy, should the Republican Party be more Trumpified, or less?
What is the difference between the Republicans' need to inherit and reflect?
Some analysts say that how the Republican Party cleans up the mess will determine the party's future, which in turn will affect the political and diplomatic trends of the United States.
Data map: On October 5, local time, US President Trump left the National Military Medical Center in Maryland and returned to Washington. After receiving treatment for new coronary pneumonia at the Walter Reed Medical Center in Washington, he took off his mask when arriving at the White House.
"Trumpism" may have far-reaching impact
"Four years ago, Trump initiated a negative takeover of the Republican Party. He used a message to break the mainstream conservative ideology on issues such as fiscal responsibility, foreign policy, and trade to win the support of basic Republican voters." The Times recently wrote that some of the older generations of the Republican Party eagerly portray Trump as a person who deviates from the norm, a person who leads the party into nationalism, populism, and conspiracy theories, without a serious policy basis.
Trump is the first Republican president who has not been re-elected since 1992, but he transformed the Republican Party from a conservative style rooted for decades to a populism and nationalism center.
"Small government has become less important. Republicans have turned a blind eye to big government actions such as substantially increasing the fiscal deficit and distributing relief subsidies to the people. Secondly, free markets and low taxes have become unimportant. Trump follows the outdated mercantilism logic to impose tariffs on allies and non-allies, which is equivalent to imposing a huge wave of taxes on all American consumers.” Mr. Sun, assistant professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in the United States A reporter from the Global Times said that traditions such as family values and human dignity seem to no longer care, and it has become the norm to speak rudely and lead the news cycle by creating incidents to blog people's attention.
Because of this, there has been an unprecedented rivalry within the Republican Party.
Traditional establishments such as the Bush family and former Republican presidential candidate Romney have repeatedly bombarded Trump, and Republicans have organized anti-Trump groups to openly challenge him.
However, Trump, who claims to be an "anti-establishment faction", has gathered a large number of die-hard supporters in the party and has expanded the voters' base because of his unusual path.
This makes it difficult for the Republican Party to get rid of Trump, as evidenced by its attitude towards challenging the outcome of the election.
The Financial Times bluntly stated on the 12th that many senior Republicans are recklessly accommodating the injured self-esteem of the American president.
The article mentioned that a poll showed that more than two-thirds of Republican voters believed that the election was not free and fair due to Trump's claims.
The Republican leaders chose to support Trump for many reasons, such as "retaliation." After the 2016 election, the Democratic Party and most mainstream media in the United States have consistently refused to recognize Trump as the legitimate president and used "Russian Gate" to attack Trump. The legitimacy of governance.
"I think this is no different from what the Democrats did 4 years ago. They told the Americans that Russia was involved in the Trump election." The first Trump pre-Trump campaign that disclosed that Trump might make a comeback 4 years later The consultant Lanza said.
The more important reason is that Trump’s supporters have shown strong energy in this election, which not only discredited the polling agencies that predicted that his opponent Biden will win the election by an overwhelming advantage, but also in many traditional Democratic deep blue states. Get a lot of support.
National Public Radio said that Trump drove more Republican voters to vote, making other Republican candidates perform better than expected in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Right now, Republican senators also regard Trump’s loyal supporters as the key to winning two senator seats in Georgia early next year, which will directly determine whether the Republicans can continue to control the Senate.
In the eyes of observers, despite the failure of Trump's re-election, Republicans clearly see signs of "Trump-style populism" maintaining its long-term strength.
"Trumpism" not only consolidated the Republican Party’s support among white voters, it also helped the Republican Party make amazing progress among Latino voters.
This shows that the Republican Party has the potential to break through racial boundaries, and even if this potential is prematurely stated, it still has great appeal to the Republican Party.
The National Review magazine stated that considering Trump’s voter base in the past two presidential elections has continued to expand, it is unlikely that other Republican presidential candidates will soon abandon the “Trumpism” that has benefited him.
Even if the specific policies introduced by Trump are not fully continued, such as trade tariffs and immigration policies, the Republican Party’s desire to retain Trump’s voters will inevitably be populist.
"He is such a popular figure in the Republican'base'," said Jason Stanley, a professor of philosophy at Yale University. "For many Republicans, this has always been practical."
A scholar told the Global Times reporter that some Republicans, especially the establishments in the leadership, are not in line with Trump's three views, but they do not prevent them from using their power to do things.
For example, McConnell, the leader of the Senate Majority Party (Republican), has worked hard in recent years to push the most conservative judges into courts at all levels.
"Trump only cares about the nomination, and McConnell continues to approve it by taking advantage of a majority in the Senate. What kind of doctrine is it?
Settling accounts-"We will fight for the future"
"The future of the Republican Party is based on a multi-ethnic and multi-racial working-class coalition." According to a report on the 11th by Axios News, Republican Senator Rubio said that after the 2020 election, Republicans need to reshape their party into a working class. Advocates of voters, and stay away from its tradition of embracing big business.
Rubio's remarks are considered to be an early signal from some influential Republicans, indicating that the possible leaders of the Republican Party in the future are already thinking about how to shape the Republican Party, that is, they may try to recognize Trump's success while finding their own way.
In addition to Rubio, another senator and former Republican presidential candidate, Cruz, stated before the election day that the Republican Party needs to consider resetting its priorities: "I think the Republican Party is and should be the party for jobs." He also said that the United States The demographic changes will push the two parties to rebuild their respective basic voter alliances.
With Trump's relatively clear defeat, the Republican Party faces the challenge of exploring the way forward.
Mrs. Sun said to a reporter from the Global Times that after the election, several forces in the Republican Party performed differently: the faction loyal to Trump wanted to use all resources to save Trump; the second faction believed that if Trump It is icing on the cake to be able to come back, and it doesn’t matter if you can’t come back. Therefore, within the system, these people support Trump's lawsuit and even recount votes in some states; the third faction is happy to see Trump step down in order to bring the Republican back back. The track they want.
Sun Taiyi said that the establishment of the Republican Party was a big winner in this election.
They not only drove away Trump, who had distorted the Republican Party as a whole and no longer focused on traditional values, but also temporarily retained the Senate, and even gained a new seat in the House of Representatives.
More importantly, in the grassroots state legislatures, the Republicans did not lose.
This allows the Republicans to directly gain the political initiative for the next ten years, because in most states, controlling the grassroots legislature means mastering the power to plan constituencies that are very beneficial to their party’s elections.
However, the 70 million Americans who voted for Trump are also likely to vote for "Trumpists" at all levels of government and parliament.
This makes it difficult for the Republican Party to quickly integrate and merge.
The Republicans are facing a contradictory situation, and this is what Trump brought about.
According to reports, after the general election, many Republican congressmen who won the election unconsciously began to distance themselves from Trump-Republican U.S. Senator Corning, who was re-elected in Texas, was asked if Trump helped his re-election campaign. Susan Collins, a Republican of Maine, had already congratulated Biden on his victory when Trump called for a thorough investigation of voting fraud. Senior Republican Romney accused Trump of challenging the election. The resulting behavior would "push the United States into an unfortunate historical process."
At the same time, Republican leaders such as Senate Majority Leader McConnell have publicly supported Trump's continued legal challenge to the election results.
Some commentators said that McConnell’s signal was to silence the majority of Republicans on Biden’s victory.
But according to media reports, Democratic Senator Kuhns disclosed that his fellow Republicans privately asked him to congratulate Biden.
Regarding the future of the Republican Party, a passage from Senator Josh Hawley of that party is very representative. He said that no matter who becomes president, the Republican Party is moving towards the moment of reckoning the ledger, “because there is still a large part of the establishment of the Republican Party. People failed to reach a compromise with Trump after the 2016 election victory. "These people still have a lot of power within the Republican Party. I think we will fight for the future."
"For a long time to come, the trend of political polarization and fierce struggle between the two parties in the United States will continue." Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times reporter that the Republican Party is becoming more and more Trump-like. It remains to be seen whether it will reflect, deepen the division, or have a series of complex integrations.
In 2024, whose hands are the Republicans?
American political sociologist Walden Berger wrote on the 10th that whites accounted for more than 65% of American voters, and 57% of white voters supported Trump. Behind Biden’s victory was a small number of whites and a huge majority. A coalition of mostly black, most Latino and Asian voters.
This shows that the strength of white unity is still very strong and disturbing. Now this factor has become a clear ideology of the Republican Party, such as opposing taxes and abortion, and unconditionally defending the market.
In the coming decades, as the total minority population gradually equals the white population, white racism is likely to become more popular among white groups.
In the view of some analysts, although Trump's election results are surprising, "Trumpism" faces a demographic dead-end.
Trump’s supporters can usually be summed up with a few modified words-rural, conservative, white, less educated, etc., but the population development trend in the United States is more urbanization, diversification, higher education, white The proportion is relatively reduced.
In 2012, the Republican National Committee compiled an evaluation report after losing the election that year, urging the Republican Party to accept more people of color and female voters.
Fleischer, a former press secretary of the President during the Bush era, said that Trump has now completed the report's goal of expanding the Republican voter base, but it is the white working-class voters that will expand the margins.
It is reported that the Republican Party will review the election after the end of the general election and look for future campaign strategies.
Political observer Michael Steele believes that the Republican Party has entered a period of introspection.
Some people believe that Trump's eventual loss of the general election has something to do with his abandoning some voters and insisting on extreme positions during his tenure.
"He showed us part of the successful model," said Republican strategist Christian Anderson. "Now we must find someone who can help us solve other problems."
Who will this person be?
unknown.
However, there are not a few Republicans who are ambitiously aiming for the 2024 election. The aforementioned Rubio, Cruz, and Josh Holly are among them. This is why they are the first to talk about the future Republicans will take.
Moreover, they are trying to combine "Trumpism" with the original Republican conservative agenda.
In reality, it is indeed difficult for the traditional old-school Republicans to resonate with the majority of voters.
Trump can not be ignored.
According to a Reuters report on the 11th, Trump told allies that he plans to run for president again in 2024 and may announce it before the end of the year.
Some US media believe that for those Republicans who are likely to participate in the 2024 election, their aides are worried because Trump has an extraordinary influence on Republican voters, even after 4 years of leaving office (78 Years old), he may still be awesome in the Republican primary.
On November 5, due to dissatisfaction with the Republican Party’s silence on the issue of Trump’s unfair elections, Trump’s eldest son criticized the Republican Party, especially potential Republican candidates for the 2024 election, on Twitter for not supporting his father.
Subsequently, Republican Senator Tom Cotton, former US representative to the United Nations Nikki Haley and others expressed their views on Twitter.
The New York Times noted that Cotton, Haley, and Secretary of State Pompeo had begun to appear in Iowa on the eve of polling day. Although they said they were seeking votes for the difficult Republican senator candidates, they apparently had The meaning of 2024.
There are countless people who may become the Republican star in 2024: the 42-year-old Florida Governor DeSantis, who is considered a populist; the 51-year-old Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who is The current cable news star with the highest ratings; 48-year-old Senator Ben Sass... "The Republican nominee battle in 2024 has quietly started behind the scenes." According to the Associated Press, from Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. From the moderates, to the instigator like Tom Cotton, to Haley, a former official of the Trump administration, all kinds of people are testing the waters.
During the campaign, Trump's eldest son Trump Jr. has become the darling of his father's loyal supporters, which means that Trump's name may continue for a long time.