“If I were an American, I would definitely have been a member of the Democratic Party,” this quote by the famous British leader Winston Churchill, was not taken by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, known for his great admiration for Churchill.
Johnson put all his eggs in the basket of outgoing US President Donald Trump, and overlooked his close ties with Democrats, especially US President-elect Joe Biden.
And the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House poses a great challenge to Boris Johnson, who, although he did not disclose this publicly, would have been the righteous soul in the survival of Donald Trump, as dealing with him would be easier to conclude the trade agreement, and they share the same "uneasy" position on the European Union.
But the winds of toxic uncle's country came with something that Boris Johnson's ships did not desire, and put him in front of a difficult reality that he must deal with, which is finding diplomatic outlets to break the iceberg with the American president-elect, as the latter does not carry good memories of Johnson, who previously described him as a "miniature version of Donald Trump, "and Trump himself used to brag about describing Johnson" as the little Trump. "
Johnson is only thinking about solving two dilemmas, on which he suspends his political fate, the first is to make the final decision on the form of leaving the European Union, either with or without an agreement, and the second is to conclude a trade agreement with the United States, which reached its final stages during the Trump era.
Ireland ... the stumbling block
Joe Biden is proud of his Irish origins, and shows great enthusiasm in defending the interests of the Republic of Ireland, and this in itself is bad news for Johnson, who will have to deal cautiously with this file, and perhaps the first step is to withdraw the "local market" law approved by Johnson that would set Solid borders between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which contradicts the peace agreement concluded between the two parties 3 decades ago, known as the Great Friday Agreement, which stipulates that there are no borders between them.
Joe Biden sent strong messages during his election campaign that he would never allow prejudice to the Good Friday Agreement, a warning Johnson should take it seriously, after Biden became president of the United States.
Biden is not alone in resenting Johnson’s handling of the Irish file, as there is the leader of the Democratic majority in Congress, Nancy Pelosi, who asserted that if Johnson insisted on the "local market law", she would not allow her country to continue negotiations with Britain to conclude the trade agreement.
Johnson will not find itself comfortable in negotiating with the next US administration, which he knows very well, and pushing him not to rush to leave the European Union without an agreement.
Johnson tried hard to complete the trade agreement under Trump, but time did not help him, as well as the presence of a Democratic majority in Congress that has the ability to block the agreement unless Johnson makes some concessions, the first of which is not to prejudice the interests of the Republic of Ireland.
The Americans may be reluctant for some time to pressure Johnson, but their need for this agreement, which is the largest in the world and would transfer trade exchanges between the two countries from $ 300 billion to nearly $ 1 trillion, is an opportunity Biden will not want to miss at the beginning of his term.
Europe first
Unlike Trump's slogan "America first", which reflected a state of chauvinism, closed-mindedness and a move away from traditional allies, beginning with the European Union, Joe Biden puts restoring relations with this bloc in his top priority, especially with France and Germany.
At this point, too, the rift widens between Biden and Johnson, who wants to turn his back on the European Union and search for new partners, which explains his enthusiasm to get out without an agreement.
Johnson retreated in the last moments from his decision to withdraw from the European Union without an agreement, after he reached many data indicating that Biden will be the next US president, which prompted him to freeze negotiations with the Union until the election fog subsides.
Johnson will have to make a half-turn again to search for an agreement with the Europeans, and avoid the exit scenario without an agreement, which would be a negative message to the next US administration.
Joe Biden sees Brexit as a step to weaken the Western camp, and he was one of the opponents of this project, and still maintains his position, which will indirectly push for a trade agreement between London and Brussels.
There is no place for love
Joe Biden is known for his loyalty to the people who helped him in his political path and his arrival at the White House, led by former US President Barack Obama, and they share a very special friendship, and for this Biden will not forget the offense that Johnson committed against Obama, when he considered that his opposing position Brexit is caused by his "Kenyan roots and his hostility to the British Empire."
Biden does not hide his frustration with Johnson, during the end of last year he described him as a "copy of Trump", and that both of them are similar psychologically and morphologically.
If Johnson thinks that he will only face trouble with Biden, he should pay attention to the feelings that Vice President Kamala Harris bears on him. According to sources speaking to the British "The Times" newspaper, "Harris has feelings of hatred for Boris Johnson."
Perhaps the adjective "little Trump" that the outgoing US president used to call Johnson, will remain present in Biden and Harris' minds, and may control their dealings with Johnson.
But Boris Johnson may find in the saying of his role model Churchill some solace. There is neither permanent enmity nor permanent friendship. Rather, there are permanent interests, and interests between London and Washington are many, and they are enough to break the psychological barrier between the two parties.
A lot of analyzes indicate that Biden wants to present himself as a friend to Britain and not to Boris Johnson, and to preserve his country's traditional policy of dealing with the United Kingdom, which is the strongest ally of the United States.