The Institut Pasteur has modeled the coronavirus reproduction rate curve for the coming weeks.

Conclusion: even in the optimistic scenario, the decline in the epidemic may be much less than in the spring.

What reinforce the concerns of the French as the Christmas holidays approach.

Will the government rely on the Institut Pasteur's projections on the Covid-19 epidemic?

If so, everything leads us to believe that Christmas will be very different from other years in 2020. Because the scenarios developed by the Institut Pasteur are indeed not encouraging.

On the contrary, they are pessimistic and worrying.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the target set in mid-December to lift the containment will not be reached.

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Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Wednesday, November 4

A higher reproduction rate than in spring

To achieve this result, the researchers drew curves by varying the value of R0, this figure which makes it possible to assess the dynamics of the epidemic.

This is the rate of reproduction of the virus, that is to say the number of people that a patient with Covid-19 can infect.

Unsurprisingly, this R0 is a little higher at the moment than during the first confinement, due to the continuation of more activities and the opening of schools for example.

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The recession would start in two weeks at best

Consequence: the decline would begin in two weeks in the optimistic scenario, on November 18, but still with 1,000 daily admissions to the hospital on December 15, well above the 5,000 contaminations set by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron.

Worse: in the darkest scenario, there would still be no real decline in early December.

The number of patients in intensive care would even exceed the maximum reached on April 8. 

Of course, these are only models, but the lesson to be learned is that with less strict confinement, the decline will not be the same as in the spring, making barrier gestures and teleworking all the more necessary.