Analyzing the US elections and forecasting their results is a deep and detailed topic, and includes many elements, areas, dimensions, levels, parties, environments, circumstances, and accumulations ... and others.
Following this, I present a simple, comprehensive, methodological analysis of some of the foundations, controls, elements, and main indicators in predicting who will win the fiery 2020 US presidential elections:
For the most part in the American presidential elections, the winning candidate gets votes slightly higher than half (the simple majority) meaning that there is always a vertical political, partisan, electoral and other divide from different segments of the American people.
There are only two parties competing for the US presidency, while scores of local parties are vying for the other local seats.
And both the Democratic and Republican parties have within them competing currents, groupings, blocs, and personalities;
Sometimes they are in conflict.
American public opinion polls do not care much about the percentage of their support for a candidate, for these polls speak about the whole population, and are often directed by liberals who support the Democrats, and sometimes they react negatively to the Democrats if they exaggerate the signals of victory, then the Democratic voter relaxes, does not feel fear, and sits On his sofa at home, and he does not vote
Campaigning for presidential candidates in 2029 is expected to total $ 5.5 billion, with little preponderance of Democratic spending.
A little more than that will be spent by the remaining congressional candidates for representatives and senators, and this increases the hegemony over the influence of stakeholders on the results.
In the end, the influential, influential interest groups are the ones who come up with this or that candidate, and that is why we see that policies and paths do not change much strategically. Which of them has succeeded according to balances, interests and influences of the same interest groups and their sharing of the cake, and many have long called for laws to limit the influence of political money. ;
But there is no life to whom you call, and the methods of the digital world and Corona came and increased the importance of electoral spending in the media, digitally, and others.
It is not a condition that the winning candidate is the one who obtains the majority of votes for the American voters, but the winner is the one who gets the equivalent of the majority of the votes of the American states' electoral representatives.
That is, 270 votes or more out of 538 votes, which is equivalent to the total seats of representatives and senators in the US Congress representing the 50 American states and some regions of America.
And it happened several times, the last of which was with Hillary Clinton, where she won an increase of 3 million more voters than Trump in the previous election, and despite that, Trump won the presidency;
Because it garnered the equivalent of 304 delegates' votes in the assembly or electoral college, which is a mathematical method of representing states, not a real assembly.
Therefore, the American public opinion polls do not care much about the percentage of their support for one of the candidates, for these polls speak about the whole population, and they are often directed by liberals who support the Democrats, and sometimes they negatively respond to the Democrats if they exaggerate the signals of victory, then the democratic voter will relax and feel no fear, And he sits on his sofa at home, and does not vote.
On the other hand, the likes of Trump benefit from terrorizing his voters with the possibility of loss, so they mobilize their maximum to win the elections, and that is why we find Trump shouting indignantly to reduce the conditions for voting, refusing to vote by mail;
Because it facilitates the voting process, so more Democrats participate, many of them from minorities, immigrants, the less fortunate economically and socially, and the less vital in voting unless they are instigated or facilitated to vote on them.
Trump's threats to refuse to abandon the presidency are in line with his personality, history, and behavior in running and exercising governance, and since he first ran for office 5 years ago, he has been carrying out all his populist maneuvers, exaggeration, confusion, shouting and threatening the highest ceiling he can to keep his vital and hot ties and to persuade and move his electoral bases and independents close to them.
But after each battle is cleared, he does not implement much of what he said, and proceeds to other battles.
The situation will not be different if he loses this presidential election, he will carry his bag and leave the White House, often quietly.
As Trump does not accept a fierce war if he did the opposite, and those who brought him would not destroy themselves and their milk cow, America for the blue of his eyes, and Biden's atmosphere is from the same political box for interest groups in the end, and a day for them and a day for others, and there are many rules, inhibitions, structures, balances, forces and so on. As well as the awareness, role and action of the American people and all their bodies, which do not allow the kind of madness promoted by Trump.
As usual, and based on our understanding of how the votes of the winner of the American presidential elections are calculated, attention is now focused and we must focus on the expectations and results of the vote in the hot swing states, which vote once for the Democratic candidate and once for the Republican, with almost half-points, and most states historically have settled in advance for this party or that For many reasons, historical, cultural, religious, ethnic, political, social, economic, partisan, labor, electoral machines and others.
So the critical swing states are 8 states:
Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Historically, and often in presidential elections, the incumbent president is re-elected for a second term, provided that he has not made a catastrophic mistake, or that the economy is falling strongly and there is no hope that his policies will change that.
And they choose its competitor if they feel it will improve the economy or save them from disaster;
In the case of Trump, the economy and people's income improved before Corona, and he did not commit any disaster, and the economic decline is justified by the effects of Corona, and his rival Biden does not believe that he will bring many different;
It is therefore very difficult to predict the winner.
Of course, foreign policy is not an important criterion for the American voter, including the issues of Palestine, Arabs, the Middle East, democracy and so on. Muslims and Arab Americans are divided in their support for any of the two candidates with Milan in favor of Biden, despite their lack of enthusiasm for him.
In all the past and as an emerging trend, the Muslim and Arab communities are increasing in influence, and they can double their influence in the results of the presidential and congressional elections, states and localities, which are elections for hundreds of thousands of elected positions, not just the presidency.
I had the honor to theorize, work, and make achievements of this mass participation from the ground up 20 years ago when I headed the Muslim Ummah Political Foundation in Chicago.
It is a strategy that has resulted in successes in recent years for many Muslims and Arabs in elected positions, including in the US Federal Congress and hundreds of other local sites, including the victory of my son Dr.
Ibrahim Sabry Samira is a twice in the House of Representatives of one of the important states, Virginia, and he is expected to have a bright future in the American political leadership, God willing.
It is hoped that Arab and Muslim leaderships and institutions in America will build and develop political work and produce thousands of political leaders, and influence more than them at all levels, through strategic, systematic, open, professional, and sustainable foundation work that is sustainable, transparent, honest, and committed to community issues through continuous daily work, and not just gifts and scares. Improvisations and internal conflicts at the time of the presidential elections every 4 years.
What is required is to register millions of communities and their supporters from other communities, to build alliances, and to move the electoral vote in specific directions with influence.
There are at least 10 states with dense community members and their supporters, including many in swing states, and Muslims, Arabs and their allies can change the results if they excel at work.
I see that Trump won or lost, as he is the last of his kind, and America is changing demographically, culturally and politically, as whites will not remain the majority.
Rather, they will become a minority like others, and with the increase of young people from other assets and the increase in their activity and influence, and with the generational and cultural changes taking place in America, we will see many new leaderships and new policies, which after a decade will be more equitable and fair if they do each role correctly.
- And to talk the rest ..