US Presidential (D-Day): Can Donald Trump win?
-
20 minutes
Joe Biden arrives in the position of favorite but Donald Trump hopes to lie the polls in a dozen swing states.
In the event of a Democratic wave, we could know the winner overnight but the count could last several days, especially in Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump warned that lawyers for the Republican party "stood by" to challenge the mail ballots received after the election.
From our correspondent in the United States,
Patience and prudence.
In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, nearly 100 million Americans voted before D-Day - twice as many as in 2016. Suddenly, even if Joe Biden arrives in the position of favorite for the US presidential election, according to polls , election night could turn into an emotional roller coaster.
In the South, which will quickly count the early voting, favorable to the Democrats, Biden could turn in the lead before being caught by Donald Trump overnight.
Conversely, in the Midwest, there could be a "red mirage" in favor of the US president, which should fade as the postal vote finishes being counted over the next few days.
To avoid tearing your hair, here are the results to watch as a priority.
From 1 a.m. (Paris time): Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio
To have a chance of being re-elected, Donald Trump must save the "Sun Belt".
Polling stations close between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. (between 1 and 2 a.m. at night, Paris time).
Florida, which has been spinning early voting in recent days, is expected to have a near-full count completed in two hours.
It should move quickly in North Carolina, too, and a little less in Georgia.
If Joe Biden wins one of the three, it would become very complicated for Donald Trump.
But with less than 1.5 points of difference between the two candidates in the polls, these polls could be "too close to call", and the projections do not fall before Wednesday.
We will eventually watch a poor performance by Donald Trump in Ohio, a crucial state he won by 8 points four years ago.
From 2 hours: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas
Pennsylvania and Michigan cost Hillary Clinton the election.
Joe Biden has a larger margin (between 4 and 6 points), but he is not immune to a bad surprise.
These two states, which have not tabulated the early voting beforehand, could take until Friday to complete most of the counting.
If Joe Biden manages to be competitive in Texas, as the polls predict, Donald Trump could have a bad night.
From 3 hours: Arizona and Wisconsin
Donald Trump going to be sanctioned in the suburbs?
Unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin should have completed the count by Wednesday.
Arizona is another state that could switch from Trump to Biden but the battle promises to be very close.
When will we know the result?
Will we be fixed during the night?
Doug Heye, the former spokesman for the Republican Party, admits that he has "no idea".
A victory for Joe Biden in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina or Arizona would however, according to him, be a sign of a potential Democratic wave.
In this case, the election would undoubtedly be folded overnight, even if Donald Trump does not concede immediately.
If the US president manages to defend his 2016 card, on the other hand, the election could be played out in Pennsylvania, with a winner likely not to be known until Friday.
And the American president has already warned that the lawyers of the Republican party "stood ready" for a possible legal battle over the correspondence ballots accepted after November 3 by some states, which could plunge the country into uncertainty for several weeks. .
With the specter of an outbreak of violence if justice disowned the verdict of the ballot box.
Elections
US Presidential: The specter of violence raises fears of the worst
World
US Presidential: Despite record-breaking early voting, we may not know the winner on November 3
Joe biden
United States
US presidential election
World
Donald trump