Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the last debate before the presidential election, October 22, 2020. -

Chip Somodevilla / POOL

  • The US election takes place this Tuesday, and Joe Biden is the favorite.

  • The failure of pollsters in 2016, however, calls for caution, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • 90 million Americans will already have voted by Tuesday, and that could complicate the count.

From our correspondent in the United States,

Four years ago, Donald Trump imploded the crystal balls of pollsters and political scientists.

But this year, Joe Biden can count on a greater margin of safety than that of Hillary Clinton in crucial states in 2016, and a large victory for Democrats in the White House and Congress "remains the most likely scenario", said Sam Wang, an analyst at the Princeton University electoral consortium.

This does not mean that a surprise next Tuesday, November 3, in the US presidential election, is impossible, while in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, advance and postal voting has broken all records.

And in the event of a close ballot, the Supreme Court could act as referees.

4 scenarios:


- a Biden wave, which flips all the swing states (FL, OH, IA) and the south (NC, GA, AZ)


- a ric-rac victory for Biden, which takes over MI, WI, PA


- a victory surprise from Trump, who saves FL and PA


- draw 269-269, new House appoints president pic.twitter.com/9WjbfWZWAt

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 31, 2020

Scenario 1: A blue wave in the White House and Congress

Hillary Clinton's lead had melted down the home stretch.

That of Joe Biden has remained stable throughout the year, with a difference on Sunday of more than 7 points at the national level - twice as much as in 2016. There are, this time, half as many undecided, and Joe Biden is less unpopular than Clinton.

The Democrat should therefore rebuild the "blue wall" in the north (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) thanks to the support of women in the

suburbs

, and he could overthrow several

swing states

(Florida, Ohio, Iowa) if the seniors partly let Trump go. because of the Covid.

And even create a surprise in Republican lands in the South (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona) if the minorities mobilize as for Barack Obama in 2008 - a wave that should allow the Democrats to win the House and the Senate.

Such a scenario could be explained by fundamentals very unfavorable to the exiting.

Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of his handling of the pandemic, his popularity rating remains historically low, and despite a rebound in growth in the last quarter, uncertainty for 2021 penalizes the US president.

Yale economist Ray Fair predicted a victory for Donald Trump in 2016, but according to projections by Oxford Economics, which is based on his model, Joe Biden is positioned to win by 52% against 48% of the vote at the national level, with 318 against 220 electors in the electoral college.

Everything about the US presidential election

Scenario 2: Biden's short victory, Republicans save Senate

In this scenario, Donald Trump manages to defend the South and the Midwest, but Joe Biden narrowly takes over the three states that cost Hillary Clinton the election: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

This is enough for him to pass the majority of the 270 voters, to 279 against 259 for Donald Trump.

In its wake, Democrats win the House but fail to secure the three additional seats they need to secure a majority in the Senate.

Scenario 3: Donald Trump still creates a surprise

If Joe Biden's safety margin seems to protect him from a setback in Michigan and Wisconsin (6 points ahead), it is tighter in Pennsylvania, with only 4 points difference, according to the poll average.

The institutes ensure that they have corrected their models of 2016, which had underestimated the share of white voters with little education in the "Rust Belt", but nothing guarantees.

A last poll, this Sunday, gives the American president largely in the lead in Iowa (+7), just like in 2016, when he had outperformed in the Midwest.

Donald Trump has chained, this weekend, meetings in front of several thousand supporters and repeated over and over that Joe Biden, who spoke of an energy transition to get out of oil during the last debate, would sign "the death of the manufacturing industry" .

Winning Pennsylvania and Florida would open up a boulevard for him.

Scenario 4: Chaos

More than 90 million Americans will have voted by November 3.

This represents nearly two-thirds of the total participation in 2016. The count should go fairly quickly in some critical states which have checked the ballots beforehand (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona), but take up to two or three days in others (Pennsylvania and Michigan).

In the event of tight results, several recounts could begin and last for weeks, as in Florida in 2000.

If several states currently accept postal bulletins received several days after the election, the Supreme Court could still get involved.

The decision in Pennsylvania, in particular, is not final, and with the backing of conservative judge Amy Coney Barrett, the court could decide to reject the late ballots, potentially depriving Joe Biden of several thousand votes.

According to Michael McDonalds, who analyzes the early voting in the Election project of the University of Florida, "the risk exists but in all likelihood, we should know the name of the winner" Tuesday or Wednesday.

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