It is the last Sunday ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Biden has a huge advantage in most polls.

As of October 31, Democrat Biden is ahead of President Trump by 7.8 percentage points based on the data from Real Clear Politics, which is a summary of survey results from 11 media and opinion polls.

Biden's dominance was found in all 11 survey results, but the difference between Economist and CNBC results reached a whopping 11 percentage points.

Even a survey by the Rasmussen Report, the only one that predicted Trump's victory in 2016, showed Biden's dominance by 3 percentage points.

At this point, the so-called'biden trend' is not an exaggeration.

Nevertheless, Biden's camp is still unable to let go of his mind.

This is because of the so-called'Shy Trump' trauma of 2016.

Even four years ago, most polls showed Hillary Clinton was ahead.

But when I opened the lid, the winner was Trump.

This is because the polls could not capture the vote of'Shy Trump' who supports Trump but does not reveal it.

Because of this, the Trump camp still claims its dominance.

As I experienced in 2016, polls are just figures that are far from reality.

However, most experts say that'Shy Trump', which was the driving force behind the band's electrode four years ago, is unlikely to exert a great influence in this election.

In all respects, the situation is different from four years ago when'Hethanah of Washington', a former real estate entrepreneur with no public service experience, defeated the political elite from the First Lady.

With the painful mistakes of 2016, the technology of polling has further advanced, and above all, the hidden supporters of Trump, ``Shy Trump,'' have changed themselves.

● The 2016 poll was wrong?

Although the results of the public opinion poll and the final result were different, strictly speaking, the poll was not wrong in 2016.

The poll is the result of a survey of candidates for support.

And in the actual voter's vote, Clinton got 3 million more votes.

Nevertheless, Trump became president because of the unique US election method.

In the US presidential election, instead of combining individual voters' votes, the voters' votes are counted by state to determine the winners, and the winners dominate the electoral corps assigned to that state.

The final result is not the number of votes, but the number of electors secured.

Because of this, Clinton fell behind in securing the electoral corps even after receiving more votes.

Nevertheless, the 2016 polls revealed clear limitations.

The driving force behind Trump's victory four years ago was the victory in the'Rust Belt', a declining industrial zone in the north.

Blue-collar voters, low-income working class, were enthusiastic about Trump's ``American First'' pledge to close the door to immigrants and bring back jobs by raising barriers to trade.

It turns out that those with low-educated whites threw a blind eye on Trump while not revealing.

Polls four years ago missed them.

As a result of this, most investigators added the'educational level' variable to the sample selection in this election.

For this reason, the hole in the polls where the votes of low-educated, low-income white blue-collar workers, who were the main pillars of'Shy Trump', will be missing has been reduced by that much.

●'Shy Trump' is no longer'Shy'.

In a data released in July, the right-wing Keito Institute found that 62% of Americans are afraid to share their political views, mostly conservatives.

However, even taking this fact into account, the size of'Shy Trump' in 2016 was exceptionally large.

Experts point out that Trump was a so-called'non-mainstream''heretic' as an important reason.

Whether morally, ethically, by pouring out words or actions, by his career or by any aspect, Trump in 2016 was a candidate that seemed to be lacking in support to come out and support.

Because of this, it was not revealed that not a few voters supported Trump consciously of the gaze of others.

Now things are different.

Trump in 2020 is no longer a'non-mainstream''heresy'.

He is the'President' of the United States, a world superpower.

It means that there is no longer any reason to be ashamed to say that you support Trump as a supporter.

The strong solidarity of Trump supporters, who are close to collective fandom, has been revealed from time to time during racist protests and coronavirus phases.

In the U.S., they held flags and protested against racist protesters, while holding ``no masks'' signs and demanding the removal of corona regulations.

Polls such as Morning Consult point out that Trump's supporters are no longer'Shy'.

To them, Trump was not an object of shame, but rather became a'proud'.

That means Trump supporters no longer need to hide.

● The floating layer reduced by 1/3…

There is



One of the indicators to be noted for estimating the influence of'Shy Trump' is the size of the floating class.

In the 2016 poll, the percentage of the non-moving class reached 13-20%.

Of these, 60% took Trump and about 30% took Clinton.

From this presidential election to the present, the proportion of the floating class in public opinion polls is about 3-8%.

The fact that the size of the floating floor has been reduced to less than a third means that the absolute size of'Shy Trump' may have decreased.

As of October 31, the minimum gap between Trump and Biden is 3%.

Trump's dramatic reversal could be possible once again following 2016 if all the floating classes turn to Trump.

However, most experts believe that the possibility is not as high as of now.

American University professor David Barker defined the election as "a referendum on the record most people see as a failure."

Trump's deeds over the past four years, especially in the face of the racial discrimination and corona, that have fueled this year, many Americans have already given Trump's qualities and abilities as president a'failure point'.

For this reason, experts predict that not a few of the traditional Republican supporters have turned their backs against Trump's'failure'.

Although it cannot be revealed to family and acquaintances, it is the existence of so-called'hidden biden' who supports Biden.

Like'Shy Trump', no one knows the exact scale of'Hidden Biden'.

Either way, it can be much larger than expected or just an illusion.

However, considering the influence of'Shy Trump' itself, it is a common opinion among experts that the likelihood of a'blast' reappearing in 2016 is not high.