Gimbe Foundation: "Without local closures, one month of lockdown"

• Dpcm, Conte: "Measures to mitigate the contagion curve, subtle and sudden spread"

• Miozzo: stick to the rules or it will lockdown again

Share

October 29, 2020 A 108% increase in deaths and 89% new cases in the week October 21-27, compared to the previous one.

This is what the monitoring of the Gimbe foundation revealed.

On the hospital front +5,501 admissions and +541 in intensive care with a doubling time of about 10 days and an estimated 30,000 hospitalizations and more than 3,000 intensive care units occupied as of November 8th.

Data and scientific evidence show that the measurements of the three Dpcm, explains the foundation, are insufficient and late and that the Rt values ​​greatly underestimate the speed with which the virus spreads.

"In relation to the results obtained from the introduction of each containment measure - explains Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe foundation - the effectiveness on the Rt value of four possible groups of interventions at 7, 14 and 28 days. If on the one hand the effects depend on the number and type of restrictions, on the other hand they are by no means immediate. In fact, to halve the value of Rt, 28 days of total lockdown are required, times that in Italy could expand further for the increasing delay in notification of cases ".

The monitoring of the foundation testifies to the exponential increase in the trend of new cases (130,329 vs 68,982), partly due to the increase in the cases tested (722,570 vs 630,929), but above all due to the net increase in the positive / cases tested ratio (18% vs 10.9%).

Currently positive cases are growing by more than 112,000 (255,090 vs 142,739) and, on the hospital front, there is a constant increase in patients hospitalized with symptoms (13,955 vs 8,454) and in intensive care (1,411 vs 870).

Deaths more than doubled (995 vs 459).

In detail, compared to the previous week, there are some important changes. Starting from deaths: 955 (+ 108.1%);

intensive care: +541 (+ 62.2%);

hospitalized with symptoms: +5,501 (+ 65.1%);

new cases: 130,329 (+ 88.9%);

currently positive cases: +112,351 (+ 78.7%);

cases tested +91.641 (+ 14.5%);

total buffers: +147,423 (+ 14.4%).

"The data of the last week - says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe foundation - document the definitive collapse of the territorial embankment of testing & tracing, confirm an increase of over 60% in patients hospitalized with symptoms and intensive care and a doubling of deaths. In some areas of the country the total lockdown can no longer be postponed to stem the widespread contagion and reduce the pressure on hospitals ".

In general, the main indicators worsen in all regions, except for the modest increase in the cases tested. "Beyond the absolute numbers - explains the president - the exponential trends with which hospitalized and intensive care patients increase, with a doubling time of about 10 days from 3 consecutive weeks ".

According to Enrico Bucci, adjunct professor SHRO, Temple University "maintaining these growth trends, as of November 8 an estimated 31,400 (95% CI: 30,000-33,000) hospitalized with symptoms and 3,310 (95% CI: 3,200-3,400) in intensive care ;

numbers that could be reduced due to excess lethality from hospital overload.

In fact, exceeding the limit of 30% of the beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, after the cancellation of scheduled surgical interventions and deferred health services, there will inevitably be an increase in mortality, not only Covid-19 related.

"It is true - continues Cartabellotta - that progressive restrictions have been introduced by the Government and Regions, but their effect on the decline in the contagion curve will be minimal, both because the measures have not been 'calibrated' on predictive models at 2 weeks, and because the mild measures of the first two Dpcm have already been neutralized by the exponential growth of the epidemic curve ".

The impact of the introduction of different containment measures on the Rt value is the subject of a recent study - published in Lancet Infectious Diseases by researchers from the University of Edinburgh - which analyzed data from 131 countries.