Donald Trump applauds Amy Coney Barrett after her confirmation to the US Supreme Court on October 27, 2020. -

Nicholas Kamm / AFP

  • Eight days before the presidential election, conservative magistrate Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed to the United States Supreme Court.

  • The Supreme Court, which arbitrates on major social issues in the United States, has six conservative judges out of nine, including three appointed by Donald Trump.

  • Can this ultimate political victory for Donald Trump play a role in the American election?

    Not sure, for Nicole Bacharan, political scientist specializing in the United States, who considers that this appointment can also galvanize the opposition.

"It is a historic day for America," Donald Trump jubilated Monday evening, after the confirmation of the conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States.

The 48-year-old Catholic magistrate is appointed for life to the highest American court.

With six conservative judges out of nine seats, the President of the United States permanently anchors the Supreme Court on the right, and this, one week before the presidential election.

Can this final Republican victory weigh in favor of the outgoing president on the November 3 ballot?

Decryption with Nicole Bacharan, historian and political scientist specializing in the United States.

Is the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett an asset in the re-election of Donald Trump?

I see three kinds of possible consequences.

The evangelical community, for example, is thrilled, and this may prompt voters to go out and vote in support of the president.

But there is the risk that some of them will say to themselves "we got what we wanted from Donald Trump, we no longer need him", these are things that emerge through interviews.

And my third hypothesis is that this election has a very strong galvanizing effect on the Democrats' side.

The imbalance of the Supreme Court, which must deal with central questions of society such as global warming, weapons, abortion or the health system, it can also very strongly mobilize in favor of Joe Biden.

Can Donald Trump's political victory earn him new votes?

This is what he hopes.

During his mandate, Donald Trump never did anything to expand his electorate to independents, centrists… He always thought that voters who had not voted until then would come out of the woods.

He is counting on this political victory to mobilize the voices of these people who have not spoken for a long time.

Beyond Donald Trump, can this confirmation serve the Republican Party?

It could be useful for the re-election of some Republican senators.

At the same time as the presidential election, the Americans renew by direct universal suffrage a third of the Senate.

This year, by a coincidence of the calendar, there are more Republicans than Democrats whose seat is at stake. Among them, a good part of these policies will be largely re-elected but for those which are in a more fragile situation, this voting can help them.

However, the majority of the population is not moving towards ultra-conservatism, and the Republican Party is using this Supreme Court appointment to block social development.

And this, despite the opinion of Americans.

On the issues of same-sex marriage or gun control, it is dramatic.

For example, polls give Americans who want gun control an overwhelming majority, around 80%.

The party is thus trying to compensate for its loss of speed among its voters.

If the election is contested by one of the two candidates, can the appointment of Amy Coney Barret change the vote?

This is exactly the calculation made by Donald Trump and the Republicans.

If the election is close, as it is shaping up, or if the final decision rests with a state - there is a lot of talk about Pennsylvania this year - there will be calls for recounts, challenges to the validity of ballots, accusations of intimidation in the polling stations… There are many angles of attack.

Some questions, more complex than others, will come to the Supreme Court after exhausting all local legal remedies.

If this happens, I cannot imagine for a second that this Supreme Court does not give the election to Donald Trump.

I don't see how he could be outvoted.

For the legitimacy of the election, it is a disaster.

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