Podcast: US Elections: A 'prince' from New York vs. an 'aristocrat' from Washington
USA: Trump rally marathon two weeks before the elections to reduce Biden's advantage
According to the statistics website FiveThirtyEight,
Donald Trump has a 13% chance of winning the elections on November 3
, that is, less than those of getting a six when a die is rolled.
The British weekly
The Economist
reduces the chances of the president to renew his mandate to 5%.
That is exactly the risk that a 74-year-old man with obesity and high cholesterol will
die after contracting the coronavirus
.
Thus, Trump had the same risk of dying when he was diagnosed with Covid-19 as of winning the election.
The statistics, therefore, are clear.
As much as in 2016. On November 8 - the day of those elections - the
New York Times
gave Trump a 15% chance of winning the election.
FiveThirtyEight, a bit more cautious,
lowered the ratio to 28.8%
.
The Economist
did not want strong emotions, and did not enter, that year, in the game.
With that background, the question is obvious.
Will the same happen in 2020?
Do polls capture the intention to vote?
Of course, in the 2018 congressional elections, in which the Democratic Party swept, they were right to the millimeter.
But Trump is unpredictable.
So in this 2020 nobody trusts.
And, least of all, the Democrats.
"I don't care about the polls. There were also a lot of polls last time, and they didn't work," Barack Obama said at a rally in Philadelphia, the main city of Pennsylvania state last week.
In a recent document to her team, Joe Biden's campaign manager, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, called for "
campaigning like we're losing,
" because "the best poll can go wrong."
The reasons for this distrust are solid.
This is not only the precedent of 2016 but also the data for 2020. For example: it is true that Biden has twice the advantage over Clinton at the national level, that is, around 9 points compared to 4.5.
But it is also true that in the US that means absolutely nothing.
the important thing is the states that can give victory.
And, when those territories are taken into account - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona -
Biden leads Trump
by
3.9 points on average
, according to the average of the RealClearPolitics website.
The problem for the Democratic candidate is that Clinton was leading by 3.5 points at this stage of the election.
And he lost in each and every one of those states.
The poll companies
have created the narrative that they were not wrong in 2016
, but simply that states that were not considered doubtful, unexpectedly turned around and went to Trump.
That idea is fallacious for two reasons.
The first is basic: those companies should have detected that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could be in dispute, and they did not.
The second is that, plain and simple, when they probed the intention to vote in those territories they screwed up to the hock.
In Wisconsin, each and every 28 polls gave Clinton the winner
.
In Michigan, only one of 37 opinion polls put Donald Trump ahead.
In both, the current president won.
So who to bet on?
When it comes to gambling, the choices are more balanced.
In the UK betting market, Biden has 64.6% odds, and Trump 35.4%.
Still a favorite, of course.
But less than what the polls and, above all,
The Economist
declare
.
For now, it is best to wait until dawn on the 4th, and
look at the polls with a bit of skepticism.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
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