While the United States recorded the highest pre-voting fever of all time ahead of the 11th and 3rd presidential elections, public opinion polls are coming out one after another that the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is ahead of the major contenders in pre-voting as expected.
However, among those who do not vote in advance, many respondents say they support President Trump, and there are still observations that it is not easy to predict the results until the actual counting is completed.
This trend was evident in a public opinion poll released on the 25th by CBS Broadcasting in collaboration with public opinion polling agency Yugov on the 20th to 23rd, targeting voters in three states, including Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.
In Florida, 49% of 1,243 respondents said they completed pre-voting, such as by mail or preliminary on-site voting, and 61% of them said they supported Biden, significantly ahead of President Trump, only 37%.
In North Carolina, 51% of the 1,37 people surveyed said they participated in the pre-voting, and Biden's support (61%) was far higher than President Trump (36%).
In the case of Georgia, 43% of the 1102 respondents said they had voted in advance, of which 55% and 43% said they supported Biden and President Trump, respectively.
In a survey conducted by Wisconsin-Madison University on 647 Wisconsin voters on the 13th and 21st, Biden was 53% vs. 44%, ahead of President Trump. Happened.
This is interpreted to be consistent with observations so far that Democratic supporters prefer pre-voting rather than on-site voting on the day of the presidential election due to concerns about the spread of infection after the corona 19 pandemic in the US.
According to the “American Election Project”, an election forecasting site built by Professor Michael McDonald's University of Florida, as of 11:46 am on the 26th, 69.7 million people have completed pre-voting.
Of these, 46.64 million people participated in mail voting, which is about 23.3 million people in advance.
This number of pre-votes already exceeded 58 million in the 2016 presidential election, even though there were eight days left, and 44% of the total number of 133.88 million voters, including on-site votes on the day of the presidential election four years ago, It is also a corresponding figure.
An analysis of 19 states that released pre-voting voter support party information found that there were a total of 27.95 million voters in those states.
Among them, 49.0% of the voters said they supported the Democratic Party, which was close to half of the total, 28.0% of the Republican supporters, 22.3% of non-partisans, and 0.6% of the third candidate.
However, President Trump's support was much greater among respondents who had not yet voted in the CBS poll.
In the case of non-voting in the CBS survey, President Trump's support in Florida was 59%, ahead of Biden (40%) by 19%, and in North Carolina, President Trump is far more at 58% versus 41%.
Georgia also surpassed Biden (44%) with 54% of respondents supporting President Trump.
It also means that it is too early to predict who will actually dominate during the presidential election based solely on the poll results of the pre-voting participants.
As a result of the CBS survey, Biden and President Trump's approval ratings, which included all pre-voting and non-voting voters, were in the margin of error at 50% vs. 48% for Florida and 51% vs. 47% for North Carolina.
Georgia was tied at 49% versus 49%.