Public opinion polls are continuing that US President Donald Trump will not only be defeated in competitions ahead of the presidential election on the 3rd of next month, but also struggle in some non-competition states where the dominance is expected.
It means that there will be holes in non-competitive competitions, where President Trump must win, but it is an observation that it is not easy to predict a victory because there are many places where there are close battles within the margin of error.
The races, which have been classified by the US media as the places that determine the presidential election, are all three states of the'Rust Belt' in the north such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and the three states in the'Sunbelt' such as North Carolina, Florida and Arizona in the south. There are six.
According to the results of collecting various opinion polls as of the 22nd local time by'Real Clear Politics', a website dedicated to elections, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden recorded a 45.3% approval rate with an average of 49.4% in six competition states. It is 4.1 percentage points ahead of President Trump.
Of the 538 electoral votes in total, 101 voters are at stake here.
The November 3 presidential election is, strictly speaking, an election in which the electors allocated by state are elected by a referendum.
All but two states have adopted a'winner-takes-all' method in which candidates with the most votes take all the electors assigned to that state.
Considering that President Trump was 74 people ahead of the electoral corps during the 2016 presidential election, assuming that the results of non-competitive races in this presidential election were the same as at the time, if Biden got an additional 38 electoral corps from six competing states, it would be a prerequisite and a majority You can secure 270'magic numbers'.
According to the flow of public opinion polls, it means that President Trump is being pushed out of six competition states and threatened to announce re-election. However, investigations that seem to be shaking up in non-competitive states as a result of being overwhelmed are a factor that adds to the burden.
According to the US media reports, in addition to these six race states, four states, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio, are representative of the state where the battle is in close contact as the elections get closer.
There are 78 electors in total.
Combined with the 6 competitions, it is a total of 179.
In particular, President Trump won the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton by 5.0 percentage points and 9.5 percentage points respectively in Georgia and Iowa during the 2016 presidential election, but Biden's lead was 1.2 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.
In addition, Ohio, where President Trump won 8.1 percentage points four years ago, has reduced the lead width to 0.6 percentage points.
In Texas, which was known as a'conservative shout,' President Trump won by 9.0 percentage points in 2016, but the gap narrowed to 4.0 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics survey.
In a survey released on the 21st by Me. Quinip University, the two candidates each achieved a tie with 47%.
If President Trump is defeated by up to 6 races in these 4 places, the securing electoral corps may plunge to 100 people and record a devastating defeat.
However, although it is true that President Trump struggles in the polls, there are many places where there is a crushing confrontation, and there are high observations that the final result should be opened the ballot box.
In fact, four states, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio, which were actually classified as non-competitive states, have many public opinion polls within the margin of error.
In addition, three sunbelt states, which are located in the southern part of the six race states, such as North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona are also fighting for a margin of error, making it difficult to predict the final winner.
Given this situation, the number of electoral groups predicted by Real Clear Politics is currently classified as Biden with 232, President Trump with 125, and the remaining 181 as contested areas.
It means that it is still too early to predict a match.
On the other hand, CNN Broadcasting and 270 Twowin, a political website specializing in politics, predicted that candidate Biden had reached the level necessary for the election by securing 290 people alike, excluding competition areas.
Internet media Vox says that candidate Biden has an overwhelming advantage at the national level, but weekly polls are still questionable. Even if he loses a few points through debates or new events, the overwhelming victory can turn into a situation where he can barely win in the blink of an eye. Pointed out.