Paris (AFP)

The scenario is scary, it seems inevitable: the standoff initiated by Mediapro with French football risks leading to an inevitable drop in TV rights in the weeks or months to come, a sudden fall difficult to cash for the clubs.

The words are out.

"Bankruptcy", "bankruptcy", "disaster" ... Most of the specialists questioned can hardly imagine a way out of the crisis without damage to Ligue 1, whatever the scenario to come.

The reasoning is quite simple: Mediapro had won in May 2018 from the Professional Football League (LFP) the TV rights for the L1 and L2 for a little more than 800 million euros per year.

But the Sino-Spanish group announced that it would no longer pay the announced sum.

And since then, crisis exit scenarios have swarmed, while Mediapro has called a press conference for Wednesday morning (10:45 / 08:45 GMT) in Paris to discuss the issue.

"Very clever who can predict how this will end. One thing, however, is acquired, TV rights will drop," assures a source close to the matter.

"Either the LFP gives in and the rights go down, or they don't give in and the rights go down".

- Canal plus in a strong position -

If the LFP decides to terminate the contract with Mediapro because of the non-payment of the deadlines and to re-launch a call for tenders, or even to sell over-the-counter, the context will then no longer be at all the same as 2018.

"The price of TV rights is set according to the competition. In 2018 there were 3-4 operators and an adventurer. If we do a call for tenders today, who do you have?", Asks Pierre Maes, consultant, author of the book + Le business des Droits TV +.

The answer comes very quickly: the Canal Plus channel, historic broadcaster of the championship.

Here too, one of the corollaries of this crisis, which seems to have been acquired, lies in the new status of the encrypted channel which remains silent, but a priori has all the cards in hand in this case.

"BeIN is no longer in the game. Canal Plus is obviously the operator most able to recover the rights. They will find themselves in a virtual monopoly situation. They are the ones who will set the price", forecasts Pierre Maes.

A price that will not reach the amount provided for in the Mediapro contract.

"They will obviously negotiate downward. Basically they will do a little as they want, they are in a position of strength," says the source close to the matter.

And this is the major problem.

Because the clubs have already budgeted and spent part of the money supposed to be paid via TV rights, for example by recruiting players on contracts of several years.

"The problem is going to be the brutal transition from a prosperous period to a frugal period," said Pierre Maes.

TV rights represent a large part of the budget of French clubs on average (36% for L1 in 2018-19 according to the DNCG, financial policeman of French football), some clubs being even more largely dependent, such as Nîmes or Angers.

- "Stuffing turkeys" -

"We left the clubs to invest and now we have nothing. The one who has no cash is dead. I hope an agreement will be found, otherwise the clubs will be the turkeys of the farce ", worries Philippe Caillot, the deputy chairman of Angers, in Ouest-France.

"We will have to row. And then, you think that the banks will continue to have confidence in the world of football with all this?", He worries.

Concretely, the clubs could try to readjust their budgets and try to review the contracts of players already signed down.

An almost impossible exercise.

"Have you seen the attempts during the Covid? Look at the difficulties that the clubs encountered when they mentioned a fall in wages," recalls Pierre Maes.

Some clubs might not make it through the ordeal, unable to cope with this upcoming cash shortage.

"It is a real fear, founded and legitimate", summarizes Pierre Maes.

© 2020 AFP